Nikki Haley's 40% in South Carolina: A crushing loss for her or a '5-alarm fire' for Donald Trump?

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s loss in her home state's primary over the weekend was clearly an embarrassing one. South Carolina voters opted for former President Donald Trump over the candidate they chose twice to serve as governor.

But Haley still received a significant chunk of support from Republicans in the Palmetto State, a factor that should be deeply concerning for Trump's reelection bid, according to many political observers.

Trump received close to 60% of the vote on Saturday, with his former United Nations ambassador netting almost 40%. That means while it’s a crushing loss for her, Trump's performance should be sounding alarms among his campaign, said William F. B. O'Reilly, a Republican strategist from New York

"For Trump, who is effectively running as an incumbent president, losing 4 in 10 Republican voters in South Carolina had to be unsettling," said O'Reilly.

With Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel announcing Monday that she will be resigning in a week, Trump is moving ahead with a takeover of the organization, including turning the RNC into his "legal slush fund, said Haley, on Monday, in an interview with Fox News’ Martha McCallum to issue a warning about what’s at stake in this election.

"This is a ship that has a hole in it. It is going to sink. We are going to lose in November and go towards the socialist path if we don't right the ship and that's really what I'm trying to get out to Republicans and Americans," she said.

The Haley campaign called the situation the "GOP Titanic."

A Fox News Voter Analysis survey of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters also found that 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) would not support Trump in the general election if he were the GOP nominee.

That split is a sign of Trump’s structural weakness, Rick Wilson, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and a former Republican political strategist, argued on Monday.

“I don’t think there’s much he can really do to bring Haley people over at this point,” he said. “Trump will be a weaker candidate in the general election than most Republicans believe.”

Multiple polls have shown Haley to be the stronger candidate against President Joe Biden in a general election. And former Trump White House official Alyssa Farah Griffin, now a political strategist, called Haley's support in South Carolina a new emergency for the Republican Party.

“Donald Trump is running as a former President with near universal Name ID and he’s losing as much as 40% of GOP *Primary* voters. That’s a 5-alarm fire for the GOP if they want to win in November,” she wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

That means there are simply more Americans who do not want Trump to be president than who do, she wrote, totaling Democratic voters and Haley's supporters: “Many who do not want him are Republicans.”

But as the 2024 race for the White House picks up steam, there are other dynamics casting a long shadow for Trump. In January, Haley’s campaign raised $11.5 million, outraising Trump’s White House bid, which raised $8.8 million, according to FEC filings.

And Haley has vowed to march on to Super Tuesday on March 5, where the greatest number of U.S. states will hold primary elections and caucuses on the same day.

"Those who wish to make a statement about the direction of the Republican Party can do so on Super Tuesday," said O'Reilly. "Voting for Nikki Haley has become a protest vote at this point."

Trump's longtime grip on the Republican National Committee could also be facing challenges in the coming weeks. The organization is considering two resolutions from Henry Barbour, a national committeeman from Mississippi. One would affirm the RNC’s neutrality in the ongoing primary fight between Trump and and the other would block the party from paying any presidential candidate’s legal bills, according to multiple reports.

While it's not clear if either of the resolutions will clear the necessary hurdles at the RNC, they're both clear efforts to push back against the former president.

“Donald Trump has already spent $58 million of campaign donations on legal fees and the RNC paid Trump’s legal fees in 2021 and 2022,” said Haley’s campaign. “With his mounting legal expenses and lackluster fundraising Trump is desperate to turn the RNC into his personal ATM.”

Nevertheless, it's difficult to doubt the former president's dominance in the Republican primary and widespread support among GOP voters.

In a Real Clear Politics average of national Republican polls, Trump leads Haley 77% to 15%. Polls in pivotal swing states have also shown Trump defeating Biden in 2024 head-to head matchups.

And while Haley may not have won in a state where she was twice elected, are there any current Republican governors who would have beaten Trump on their home turf? After all, New Hampshire's widely popular Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Haley in the Granite State – and campaigned with her for weeks – before she swiftly lost the primary there.

“It's doubtful that any Republican governor could defeat Trump in his or her own state,” said O'Reilly. “Trump has all the momentum in this primary.”

Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is a White House Correspondent for USA TODAY. You can follow her on X @SwapnaVenugopal

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Haley's 40% in SC: A crushing loss? Or a '5-alarm fire' for Trump?