Pessimism is mounting inside Harris HQ as experts voice concerns of early voting totals

Pessimism was growing for Kamala Harris’s pathway to the White House based on early voting totals across the US on Tuesday night.

Trump took quick leads in the Sun Belt states of North Carolina and Georgia, the former of which was eventually called for the Republican.

Meanwhile, The New York Times election needle projects there’s an 92 percent of a Trump victory based on current data, with the Republican forecast to win 302 out 270 necessary Electoral College votes. The Times also currently forecasts Trump winning the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Across 1,300 counties with complete 95 percent or more of their votes counted, Trump impoved on his margins in at least 92 percent of them over 2020, according to a Politico analysis, though most of these counties aren’t in battlegrounds.

The early election indications had major Trump backers like Elon Musk celebrating.

“Game, set and match,” he wrote on X on Tuesday evening.

Harris will likely need to sweep the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win.

At the moment, Trump is leading Harris in Michigan 51.7 percent to 46.6 percent, with 41.1 percent of expected votes factored in. In Wisconsin, meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 51 to 47.6, with 73 percent of votes in.

The Harris campaign hasn’t lost faith however.

It is eyeing what is says are positive factors like enthusiasm in Michigan university towns and above-average support in suburban Indiana and Georgia, in some cases outpacing Biden’s 2020 results in the latter state.

The campaign also tells The Independent that Trump’s wide support in rural Georgia isn’t exceeding what Harris already expected to face.

“While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall states,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in an email to staff obtained by The Independent. “And we feel good about what we’re seeing.”

The email said Harris was overperforming in turnout expectations in must-win Philadelphia, to the point it might top 2020 levels, and was expecting “strong turnout” in Detroit, where election results won’t be reported out until later tonight.

The Democratic campaign is also still awaiting results from parts of hotly contested Wisconsin, as well as West Coast battleground states Nevada and Arizona.

Elsewhere, despite warnings from famed Democratic strategist James Carville about the strength of some Trump performances in suburban areas such as Loudon County, Virginia, observers have called that state for Harris.

Carville said he was more optimistic about potential votes for Harris in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

“Talking about a 50,000-100,000 increase in Democratic votes in Philadelphia,” he added, “so that should absolve something. That should absolve a lot; and some of the stuff I see out of Georgia is, obviously, more encouraging than Florida. Anything is more encouraging than that.”

In Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a closely watched swing district, Trump led Harris 49.44 percent to 49.27 percent, with 60.5 percent of precincts reporting, according to unofficial tallies from the local board of elections.

Overall, Trump leads Harris 51.4 percent to 47.6 in the state, according to the Associated Press, with 82 percent of votes counted.

As votes began arriving in the Keystone State this morning, Trump baselessly claimed he was hearing chatter about “massive cheating” in Pennsylvania, though Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said this had “no factual basis whatsoever.”