Picket lines and bashing Trump: Inside Larry Hogan’s tough campaign to convince both sides

Larry Hogan may have beaten just about everyone else to the picket lines this week. But that shouldn’t shock you.

With Election Day just a month down the road and all kinds of “October surprises” popping out of the woodwork, the former governor of Maryland is charting his own path through the race’s final days. Not that he has much of a choice.

The popular two-term governor was in downtown Washington on Wednesday to give an address on the wars in the Middle East and eastern Europe — a rare move for a Senate candidate and non-incumbent, but one that makes sense in a state which includes the suburbs of the nation’s capital.

It was as typical a speech as you’d expect from a #NeverTrump conservative — bullish on support for NATO and other allies overseas, including Israel; supportive of a pre-emptive strike against Iran (with caveats.) His condemnations of his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, as well as President Joe Biden landed on the issue of demands for a ceasefire, which Hogan opposes, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the US financial system, a frequent gripe of all shades of Republicans on the Hill.

What it wasn’t: the kind of speech you’d expect to hear from a Republican in Donald Trump’s GOP. In the prepared remarks before his questions from members of JINSA, the fervently pro-Israel Jewish Institute for National Security of America, Hogan even bashed Trump by name.

“In the last debate, President Trump refused to answer whether he wanted Ukraine to win this war, and he has repeatedly threatened to abandon our NATO allies and our allies in Asia. This lack of moral clarity is dangerous and invites more aggression from our enemies,” Hogan said.

There was no mention of Kamala Harris at all.

“Ukraine must win this war against Russia,” added the governor. “In the Senate, I will lead the fight to give them the support that they need, not just to hold off Russia, but to prevail in the Senate. I will never hesitate to stand up to the isolationists in both parties, and I’ll work every single day to make our alliances stronger, regardless of the political consequences.”

In an interview with The Independent afterwards, he further cautioned against calls for direct US strikes against Iran in retaliation for the ballistic missile attack against Israel this week. Calling the region a “tinderbox”, he urged calm — then swiped at both Trump and Biden. Trump’s departure from the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015 had made things demonstrably worse, he said; Biden freeing up Iranian funds had done the same.

“We were in much better shape when we had an agreement with [Iran],” Hogan said on Wednesday. “Right now, we just kind of caved and gave them all their money to continue to escalate their nuclear program and to pay for all these missiles they’re currently firing at our allies.”

On Tuesday, he had joined striking longshoremen at the Port of Baltimore, meeting individually with members of I.L.A. Local 333 and Local 1429 — beating both presidential candidates, his Democratic opponent, and most if not all members of Congress to the punch (he has earned endorsements from both local chapters of the union). Alsobrooks, like Harris, released a statement in support of striking workers and prompt negotiations. Trump blamed the strike on the Biden administration, while not actually offering any words of support to workers.

“Governor Hogan was the first Maryland leader to meet with longshoremen at the Port because he knows, at a time like this, the state deserves leaders who have a proven track record of bringing folks together and finding consensus to even the most complex issues. He hopes both sides come to the table and that there’s a swift resolution,” said a Hogan spokesperson, Blake Kernen. “He’s proud to have their endorsement.”

This is the real battle for Hogan, who told JINSA members on Wednesday that his campaign was winning both Republicans and independent voters in the state. The two-time GOP governor, experienced at bucking his party under Trump’s presidency, is now tied to the MAGA brand for an entirely new reason: the potential GOP Senate majority under a Trump or Harris presidency. His task isn’t just convincing voters that his policies are different — it’s convincing them that he won’t hand the keys over to likely-Senate Republican leader John Thune or another member of the GOP.

Part of that involves arguing against the assertion that control of the Senate will come down to Maryland.

Hogan’s embrace of the port workers and frequent swipes at the Trump-Vance campaign are a tacit acknowledgement that he understands his path to the Senate runs through convincing Maryland’s voting Democrats to pick the maverick over one of their own. It’s a tough sell, and he’s behind in most polling, though he and others contend that his campaign is within striking distance.

“Governor Hogan has said from the start that he’s the underdog in this race, which is why he’s working to win every vote and represent all Marylanders as an independent swing vote,” said Hernen. “The excitement on the ground is giving our campaign the momentum to beat the odds. Governor Hogan is fighting to put country over party, and he hopes voters will too.”

But it’s not going to be easy, making that last pitch to the other side. The Bulwark reported on a “Democrats for Hogan” event last week at a Baltimore watering hole that was sparsely attended, save for a last-minute surge of people who, according to the center-right publication, mostly appeared to be Republicans.

Alsobrooks, for her part, has no intention of giving up easily. Her digital ads seem ever-present on social media, and she continues to hammer him on the threat that a GOP majority — even with his vote — could post to reproductive rights. National Democrats just poured another $1.1m into her race this week. She also won the endorsement of the Washington Post editorial board, the largest “local” paper in the region, despite its writers previously backing Hogan for governor. A row around unearned tax breaks claimed by the Prince George’s County executive has largely failed to shake up the race dynamic at all.

"We’re not convinced his gubernatorial record and party-of-one political brand would add up to effectiveness as a legislator,” the Post wrote of Hogan.

With so few days left in the election cycle, the governor is undoubtedly facing his toughest political test in a decade or more. What happens next will be a test of the loyalty of Maryland’s Democratic voters. They have supported Hogan before — but may see supporting his party’s control of the Senate as a bridge too far.