Poll shows disapproval of Biden, national politics, but scattered support for state issues

In a new SLU/YouGov poll, prospective voters provided their opinions on the state of the state and national economy, crime, public education, as well as their feelings on various political figures.

Saint Louis University and YouGov surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters from Feb. 14 to Feb. 26. The margin of error for the survey results is 3.74%.

Respondents were split along party lines on topics such as their approval of President Joe Biden, with 96% of Republicans saying that they disapproved or strongly disapproved of the way he’s doing his job, and 86% of Democratic respondents saying that they approved or strongly approved of his work.

Most respondents, 74%, felt that the U.S. was not on the right track or headed in the right direction, with only 18% feeling optimistic about the country’s direction. Among respondents who identify as Republican, 95% indicated that they didn’t like the direction things were going, with 42% of Democratic respondents agreeing with that feeling.

In contrast, respondents were split about the direction of the state, with 39% feeling things were headed in a good direction, and 42% disagreeing, leaving 19% of voters unsure. Republican respondents were more likely to agree things were on the right track, with 63% saying so, while 71% of Democratic respondents disagreed.

Similar results along party lines were found when asked about the approval of Gov. Mike Parson, and U.S. Sens. Eric Schmitt and Josh Hawley. Hawley’s Senate seat is up for election this year, but 86% of Republicans indicated that they approved or strongly approved of the way he’s doing his job, with 85% of Democratic respondents saying that they disapproved or strongly disapproved.

“His approval rating ticked up from a year or even six months' comparison, by about three points. He's generally one of the more popular Republican figures in the state,” said Steve Rogers, the poll director and a political scientist at St. Louis University.

When asked about voting intentions in the 2024 Missouri Governor’s race, 38% of respondents indicated intentions to vote for a Democratic candidate, while 52% plan to support a Republican.

Among the respondents who plan to vote for a Republican governor in the general election, 28% indicated that they would support Jay Ashcroft, 10% plan to vote for Mike Kehoe, 8% support Bill Eigel and 3% support Chris Wright, leaving 49% of voters unsure about who they plan to vote for in August.

Among respondents who plan to vote for a Democratic governor in the general election, 21% indicated their intention to support Crystal Quade, 5% plan to vote for Mike Hamra, and 4% of voters plan to support either Sheryl Gladney or Sarah Unsicker, leaving 66% of voters unsure of their choice.

Rogers pointed out that this was not conducted as a primary poll to solely gauge intentions of voters in August, but merely a way of organizing the data that was presented. Conducting a primary poll would involve a separate study of likely primary election voters, rather than general election voters.

“Our main sample is likely general election voters, and then those subsets that we're reporting are those who said, ‘In the general election, you're going to support this Republican candidate,’ or, ‘In the general election, you’re going to support the Democratic candidate,’ then who are you most likely to support in general of these Democratic and Republican candidates,” Rogers said.

Survey respondents show mixed support for sports betting, abortion

One survey question asked respondents if betting on professional sports matches should be legal, and 60% of respondents affirmed their support for legalizing it, with 25% disagreeing and 14% not sure.

In contrast, when asked if betting on collegiate sports should be legal, only 47% supported legalizing this type of gambling, with 39% saying it should not be legal and 14% unsure.

After years of legislative inaction, professional sports teams are circulating a ballot initiative seeking to legalize sports betting at the 2024 election. While signature collection is underway, it is unclear how much progress has been made towards gaining the required verified signatures, over 171,000, by the May 5 deadline.

Another initiative petition that is actively collecting signature seeks to legalize abortion in Missouri and ensure access to reproductive health care in the state. The effort has raised more than $4 million and gathered hundreds of volunteer signature gatherers, although it is also unclear how close they are to making the same May 5 deadline as the sports betting proposal.

Survey respondents were asked if they support the ballot language being circulated for the abortion petition, which would guarantee the right to reproductive care, which encompasses abortion, birth control, prenatal, childbirth, postpartum and miscarriage care, as well as respectful birthing conditions.

In addition, it allows for government regulation of abortion after fetal viability, which refers to the point at which a fetus could survive outside the womb without extraordinary medical intervention. It would also allow regulation if those rules would improve the health of the patient without infringing on their autonomy.

Among those respondents, 44% supported the measure, 37% opposed it and 19% were unsure how they would vote. Among Republican respondents, 24% plan to support it, 56% indicated they would oppose it and 20% were not sure. Among Democratic respondents, 71% indicated support, 11% would oppose it and 19% were not sure.

The amount of unsure voters could have to do with the fact that the ballot language contains multiple facets of reproductive health care and policy that voters haven’t yet studied enough to make their decision.

“As the advocates are collecting signatures, they may also need to be educating voters a little bit about what this initiative is going to be,” Rogers said. “I anticipate that voters will learn this, but we're asking in February, for an issue that there hasn't been a ton of campaigning about yet.”

More: Poll shows Missourians disapprove of national policies, support local Republicans

Survey respondents think Missouri lawmakers should focus on the economy

Once again, as indicated in survey results going back to June 2020, survey respondents think that Missouri lawmakers should make the economy their top priority, with 42% of those polled in support of this being the focus.

Following that, respondents think that the legislature should focus on health care and infrastructure, each with 17% of respondents in support, and education, with 15% of respondents signaling this should be the top priority.

Nationally, the survey respondents think that the economy is in bad shape, with 50% saying that the state of the economy is poor, 26% saying it is fair, 20% thinking it is in good shape and just 4% feeling that it is excellent.

While this seems a bit pessimistic, it is actually an improvement from survey responses in previous years, showing a 3% decrease in those who felt the economy was in a poor state since last February and an 8% decrease since July 2021. Over the same time period, the percentage of those who felt the economy was doing good also increased.

Views of the state’s economy have remained constant since earlier polls, although survey respondents took a more favorable view with only 25% saying that the state's economy was in a poor state, 52% saying it was fair, and 21% saying that it was good.

The survey asked respondents is the U.S. Mexican border situation was a crisis that should be addressed, and 75% of respondents agreed that it was, with a breakdown of 97% of Republican respondents and 47% of Democratic respondents encompassed within that answer. Only 18% of respondents disagreed that it was a crisis needing to be addressed, and 8% were not sure.

Respondents were split in their perceptions of public schools in their communities, with 33% of respondents saying that things were good, 33% saying it was fair, and 23% saying it was poor. When asked about public schools statewide, opinions remained split, with 20% saying they were in good shape, 42% feeling the schools were fair, and 31% saying they were in poor shape.

Similar splits were exhibited when asked about crime in their local communities, with 8% saying things were excellent, 31% good, 30% fair, and 29% poor. Respondents were split about the state of race relations too, with 10% saying race relations in their community were excellent, 39% good, 29% fair, and 17% poor, with 5% unsure.

Respondents coalesced around their views that Missouri’s infrastructure was in a less than ideal state, with 36% saying it was in a poor state and 44% saying it was fair, leaving only 18% feeling things were good and 2% saying it was excellent.

This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Missouri poll indicates some support for sports betting, abortion