Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump with 5 days to go
Editor’s Note: Follow along here for the latest presidential polls for Friday, Nov. 1.
In the final days of the election, battleground states like Pennsylvania remain tightly-contested for Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump and could represent the key to an Electoral College victory.
Two recent polls show just how close the race is in Pennsylvania, which is among seven swing states that could determine a victory in the race for the White House. A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS found that in Pennsylvania, the race is tied, while a new poll from Quinnipiac University gave Trump a 1-point edge on Harris.
Nationwide, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% in the latest TIPP Tracking Poll.
New polls were also released in Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
As the nail-biter of a race approaches its conclusion in five days, Trump and Harris plan to both address supporters Thursday in Nevada, another key swing state.
Election 2024 live updates: Trump, Harris both rally voters in Nevada; latest polls
New polls in Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
New polls released by UMass Lowell/YouGov show a tight race in several key swing states.
Trump is leading Harris by two percentage points in North Carolina, according to a new poll by UMass Lowell/YouGov released Thursday. The poll of 650 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 47% to 45% in the final days of the 2024 election. The poll, conducted Oct. 16-23, had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
In Michigan, Harris holds a slight 4-point lead over Trump, according to the latest UMass poll. The survey of 600 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 49%-45%. Conducted Oct. 16-24, the poll had a margin of error of 4.49 percentage points.
The UMass poll also showed Harris with a slim one-percentage-point lead over Trump in the key state of Pennsylvania. The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 16-23, showing Harris leading Trump 48%-47%. The lead was well within the poll's margin of error (3.73 percentage points).
Harris' lead in New Hampshire is slightly higher, at seven percentage points, UMass found. The survey of 600 likely voters Harris showed Harris ahead 50%-43%, with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 16-23.
Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania in new Quinnipiac poll
Trump leads Harris by a single percentage point in a new poll from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday.
The poll of 2,186 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 47%-46% with a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points. It was conducted last Thursday through Monday.
The findings mark a shift from earlier this month, when another Quinnipiac poll found Harris leading trump 49%-46%. The gender gap has also widened since the last poll on Oct. 9, with 57% of men supporting Trump and 55% of women supporting Harris.
Most of those surveyed said Harris would do a better job preserving democracy and handling abortion, while Trump was given the edge in handling the economy, immigration, and the conflict in the Middle East.
CNN poll finds race tied in Pennsylvania
New CNN polls conducted by SSRS found Harris maintains a narrow edge in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, but found the race is tied in Pennsylvania, which is the largest electoral prize of the three.
Both Harris and Trump have 48% support in the latest poll, which surveyed 819 Pennsylvanians from Wednesday, Oct. 23 through Monday. Another 726 people in Michigan and 736 in Wisconsin were surveyed.
"Harris runs much closer to Trump on trust to handle the economy and further ahead of him on handling democracy in both Michigan and Wisconsin, where she also holds wider advantages on key attributes than in Pennsylvania, differences that help to explain her stronger showing in the upper Midwest states," according to the poll, which had a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
Trump, Harris tied in latest TIPP poll
Trump and Harris are also tied nationally in the latest TIPP Tracking Poll released Thursday.
The latest survey of 1,265 likely voters found both candidates had 48% support among voters. Conducted Monday to Wednesday, the poll had a 2.7 percentage point margin of error.
"In these closing days, every move could shape the nation’s future," the poll said.
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Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump