Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump before Election Day
Editor’s Note: Follow along here for the latest presidential polls for Tuesday, Nov. 5.
The race for the White House remains incredibly close between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris with less than 24 hours until polls open across the United States.
A final batch of national surveys show Vice President Harris and former President Trump statistically tied as the candidates make their last-minute pitches to woo any undecided voters who remain.
While national polls continue to forecast a race far too close to predict, Harris was found to be leading Trump in Iowa, an unexpected reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory. Emerson College Polling/The Hill released their final swing state polls on Monday, further indicating tight races in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, among others.
As the candidates race to the finish line, Trump is holding rallies in pivotal swing states, starting in North Carolina before heading to Pennsylvania for two campaign stops and wrapping up the day in Michigan. Harris, meanwhile, will conclude her campaign in Pennsylvania by holding rallies in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, followed by a concert in Allentown.
Election 2024 live updates: Trump, Harris make final pitch before Election Day; new polls
Final swing states poll from Emerson College/The Hill show close race
The final surveys from Emerson College Polling/The Hill, released Monday, continue to forecast a race that will come down to the wire in seven swing states.
In Michigan, a poll of 790 people showed Harris with a two-point edge over former president Trump, 50% to 48%, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
The race is even in Nevada and Wisconsin. A survey of 840 people showed a tie at 48% in Nevada (with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points), while 800 polled in Wisconsin showed a deadlock between both candidates at 49% (3.4% margin of error).
Trump has a one-point edge in Georgia (50% to 49%), North Carolina (49% to 48%), and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%), where 800, 860 and 1,000 people were polled, respectively. Those findings were within the margin of error in each poll, which ranged from 3 percentage points to 3.4%.
In Arizona, a poll of 900 voters showed Trump leads Harris 50%-48%, which is still within a 3.2% margin of error.
The surveys were conducted Wednesday to Saturday.
TIPP tracking poll shows Trump, Harris locked at 48%
TIPP’s latest tracking poll released Monday shows Trump and Harris locked at 48%.
The poll of 1,411 likely voters conducted Friday to Sunday showed the statistical tie with less than 24 hours until polls open. The poll had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
"Significantly, 6% of voters say they may change their minds in these final hours, making each moment critical as the race barrels toward Election Day," TIPP found.
Harris leads Trump 49%-46% in ABC News/Ipsos poll
Harris is leading Trump by three percentage points in a new poll from ABC News/Ipsos released Sunday.
The poll of 2,267 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 49%-46% one day ahead of the election. Conducted Tuesday to Friday, the poll showed Harris' lead was outside the margin of error of 2 percentage points.
"That scant 3-point difference with Trump matches the average Democratic-Republican gap in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven," ABC News reported. "Regardless, the result leaves a wide-open field for the vagaries of the Electoral College."
"A dispirited electorate marks the end of the 2024 presidential campaign," the poll noted, highlighting that 74% of likely voters say the country is on the wrong track and 60% dissatisfied with their choice of candidates.
However, political affiliation also correlates with voters' attitudes about the economy, with 78% of Trump supporters reporting they've become less well off under Biden, while just 8% of Harris supporters say so. As the vice president tries to differentiate herself from Biden, 34% of those polled reported thinking she'd maintain the status quo if elected, while 35% think she'd shake things up in a good way, 31%, in a bad way.
Trump, Harris tied in final NBC News poll
Harris and Trump are deadlocked in a new poll from NBC News released Sunday, which shows both candidates with support from 49% of registered voters.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted from Wednesday to Saturday had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The poll defined the contest by intense polarization, including a gender gap of more than 30 points separating the voting preferences of men and women. And no matter who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided, the poll found.
Little has changed in voter attitudes since last month, according to the poll, "despite the frenzied campaign activity of the final weeks and the billions of dollars in advertisements."
“We’ve grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. “Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move.”
Harris maintains slight lead over Trump in final Morning Consult poll
Harris was leading Trump by 2 percentage points in the final poll by Morning Consult released Sunday.
The poll of 8,918 likely voters showed the vice president leading the former president 49%-47%, which is outside the 1-point margin of error.
"The bulk of likely voters (45%) said they have recently heard something positive about Harris, maintaining the positive buzz advantage she’s held throughout the campaign as it reaches its final weeks," according to the poll, which was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday.
Meanwhile, 49% of those surveyed reported recently hearing something negative about Trump.
Republicans are more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security, crime and especially immigration. Democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion.
Candidates tied in final Emerson poll
Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck at 49% in the final poll from Emerson College Polling released Sunday.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters found a near-identical deadlock when those surveyed were asked who they expect to win: 50% expect Trump to be the victor, while 49% said Harris. Conducted Wednesday to Saturday, the poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
However, Harris has a slight edge on Trump when it comes to favorability ratings, with 50% having a favorable view of Harris and 48% having a favorable view of Trump.
The findings "points to an incredibly close race,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The gender divide is stark, with women favoring Harris by 12 points and men supporting Trump by the same margin.”
Heading into Election Day, the top issue for voters continues to be the economy, at 40%, followed by immigration (17%), threats to democracy (16%), abortion access (7%), and healthcare (5%).
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump