Presidential election polls 2024: What polls are saying just 2 days before Election Day
Editor's note: Follow along here for polling updates on Monday, Nov. 4.
With just two days before Election Day, polling suggests the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains neck-and-neck.
National polls provide a snapshot of the country as a whole, and a majority of the national polls released Sunday suggest either a tie between the candidates or Harris taking a narrow lead. As the campaigns enter their final hours, both Trump and Harris remain busy: Trump has rallies scheduled in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris made an 'SNL' cameo Saturday night and has planned multiple stops in Michigan.
In a surprising turn, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Harris leading Trump in Iowa by three points, a state that previously went for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Here are the latest polls suggesting where the race stands.
Election 2024 live updates: Harris, Trump rally swing states with 2 days left; new polls
Harris takes lead over Trump in Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which includes those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote was released late Saturday and conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31.
Harris is leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of ± 3.4 points.
This follows a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with four point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll, where he had an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Trump and Harris are tied, finds final NBC News poll
Nationally, Trump and Harris are tied, both getting support from 49% of registered voters in a new poll released Sunday by NBC News.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 with a margin of error of ± 3.10 points. Only 2% of voters polled in the head-to-head matchup said they were unsure of who to vote for.
November's poll shows similar results from an October NBC News poll, which also showed Harris and Trump tied at 48% each.
Trump and Harris also tied in latest Emerson poll
A national poll of likely voters from Emerson College found that Trump and Harris have 49% support each among U.S. voters. The poll also found that 1% support a third-party candidate, and 1% remain undecided just two days before Election Day.
The poll, conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 sampled 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of ± 3 points.
"The final Emerson College poll of the national popular vote, which doesn’t account for the Electoral College, points to an incredibly close race," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the poll results. "The gender divide is stark, with women favoring Harris by 12 points and men supporting Trump by the same margin."
In the poll, 50% of voters expect Trump to the be next president, while 49% expect Harris to win. And when it comes to favorability ratings, Harris took the lead: 50% had a favorable view of Harris, while 48% had a favorable view of Trump.
Harris leads Trump in some swing states, New York Times/Siena poll finds
A poll released Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College found that Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump remains ahead in Arizona, and the candidates remain in a close race in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Trump lead Harris in Arizona 49%-45%. In Georgia, the poll found Harris lead 48% to Trump's 47%, 48%-46% in North Carolina and 49%-47% in Nevada.
The candidates polled at 48% each in Pennsylvania and 47% each in Michigan.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 24-Nov. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters in battleground states. The margin of error was ± 1.3 points across the battleground states and ± 3.5 points in each state poll.
ABC News/Ipsos poll: Harris leads Trump by 3 points
A poll released Sunday by ABC News/Ipsos found that Harris has 49% support among likely voters, and Trump trails behind at 46%.
The poll was conducted among a random national sample of 3,140 adults, including likely voters from Oct. 29-Nov. 1 It had a margin of error of ± 2 points for the full sample and for likely voters, and ± 5 points for likely voters in swing states: Arizona, Georgia. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
Election Day is days away. Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.
Contributing: Brianne Pfannenstiel, Des Moines Register.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Trump, Harris remain close in polls