No, swing-state Arizona isn’t flipping Democrat from Republican, despite recent elections
Forgive the person who looks at Arizona politics and sees a purple state turning blue.
Why wouldn’t they?
Democrats have taken the governor’s office, the secretary of state and attorney general’s offices, the two U.S. Senate seats and could soon flip both the Arizona House and Senate.
In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won Arizona’s presidential election, the first time his party had done that in nearly a quarter-century.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego saw all this sweet victory and told CBS News, “Arizona is changed. It’s been changing for quite a while.
“I think the D.C. punditry still wants to put us a Goldwater state,” said Gallego, now running for U.S. Senate. “When in fact we have been quite beyond that for quite a while.”
I mentioned all this to a former GOP state lawmaker who suggested I should take a look at the historic trendlines on Arizona voter registration.
I did. And it blew my mind.
Wait, Republicans have a greater lead ... now?
I went back to 2010 when Republicans still dominated this state — when Jan Brewer won the governor’s race by nearly 12 points (54%-42%) over Democrat Terry Goddard and Republicans handily won secretary of state, attorney general and treasurer races.
That same year, John McCain cruised to reelection by 24 points.
In 2010, the Republican share of voter registration was roughly 36%. Democrats were 32% and independents 31%.
Fourteen years later, Democrats have taken over most of the statewide offices and find themselves on the cusp of seizing the Legislature. So, you would think the registration numbers would reflect that change.
But they don’t.
In the latest 2022 registration numbers, the Republican 4-point lead over Democrats in 2010 has grown to a 6-point advantage.
Republicans now have 35% of total registered voters compared to the Democrats’ 29%. Independents or unaffiliated voters have climbed in that time to 33.7% from 31.2% — a 2.5% increase.
Arizona voters dislike the MAGA message
So, what explains all the Democratic success even as Republicans gain greater voter share over their rivals?
MAGA.
So says Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Arizona political consultant and former aide to then-Gov. Fife Symington.
Donald Trump acolytes who now dominate the Arizona Republican Party do not have a message “that draws people together, that talks about the future,” Coughlin said. “It’s a completely negative partisan narrative that just vilifies the other guy.
“That’s not doing it. Because we’re a growth state. People move here from all over the country. They’re optimistic when they come here. They see this growing economy. They want the future.”
They want what Arizona is today, Coughlin said.
“Arizona is pro-business, pro-growth, pro-education reform, pro-infrastructure investment, pro-good water policy. There’s just all this space here to fill up with a positive narrative about the direction the state is going. And nobody fills that.”
The Democrats are wasting a lot of time, too, “on a social woke model that doesn’t sell,” Coughlin said.
However, he added, the MAGA storm has forced that party to become more tolerant of its internal opposition to wokeness.
Arizona's middle isn't so predictable anymore
GOP leadership has fallen out of touch with the governing center of Arizona, longtime political analyst Kevin DeMenna said.
That’s not just because of MAGA flintiness. It’s also because the middle has grown more ambiguous.
“The governing center ... is the middle of the independent party, whatever that is. It isn’t a party. They don’t have meetings. They don’t pay dues. They don’t hold fundraisers.”
Arizona can learn from San Francisco: Where moderates are winning
You can rack your brain looking for discernable patterns, but voter decision-making is at a “granular” level now, DeMenna explained.
Take guns, for instance. In those ranks of unaffiliated voters, you’ll find people who want to melt down guns and people “who can’t buy enough,” he said.
“The past is no longer relevant as a benchmark,” said DeMenna. “The purple-ization, the blue, all of this, it’s a generalization that doesn’t hold true on the specifics. When you get to (voting for) these offices, people are smart. Arizonans are mavericks.”
How Republicans can win elections again
MAGA politicians are known for their inflexibility. They don’t learn from their mistakes. But there is a north star if they decide they want to start winning again.
Kimberly Yee.
Both Coughlin and DeMenna pointed to the Arizona treasurer as the secret to Republican success.
In her 2022 election, when so many Trump Republicans were falling, Yee won reelection by 11 points and drew the most votes of any candidate running for statewide office other than mine inspector, which was essentially unopposed.
“If we’re in a forest looking for samples here, this is a pure sample,” said DeMenna.
She doesn’t run from MAGA. She dresses in a red blazer and speaks at Trump’s first convention. She doesn’t back down, but she doesn’t pick fights and she doesn’t court controversy, he explained.
She benefits from being down ballot, where citizens tend to vote straight party, Coughlin said. But she doesn’t give those voters a reason to reject her. She’s positive.
Contrast that with MAGA candidates who come bearing gifts — neatly wrapped dogmas and conspiracy theories that turn off voters and hand Democrats wins.
If they ever wise up, Arizona is ripe for Republican victory.
“Every few years we walk out of (the downtown conference halls on Election Night) and wonder if tomorrow this will be a Democrat state,” DeMenna said. “It’s never happened. I mean that wave, every now and then we think we hear the rumble, a flash flood is coming. It just hasn’t ever materialized.”
Phil Boas is an editorial columnist for The Arizona Republic. Email him at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona isn’t going more Democrat. MAGA is influencing voters