Record-breaking Atlantic temperatures may mean dangerous storms. Will it impact Delaware?
It's a chilling predictor of pending disasters — record-breaking warmth in the Atlantic Ocean.
The world's oceans have been breaking daily heat records since early 2023, and it's a trend that concerns hurricane forecasters.
In the region of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes develop, water temperatures are "absolutely stunning," Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate studying hurricanes at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School told USA Today.
The higher ocean and surface temperatures fuel hurricanes and increase the likelihood of powerful major storms. Warmer-than-normal waters in the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are the main influencers in all the seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season, which started June 1.
"The whole tropical Atlantic is warmer than it's ever been for this time of year," McNoldy told USA TODAY.
The average temperature in the North Atlantic on Thursday was 72.14 degrees, 2.34 degrees above the 1982-2011 mean, according to the Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute, which uses NOAA data.
The average water temperature in the Atlantic's main development region for tropical cyclones — along the latitudes between 10 and 20 — is almost a full degree warmer for May than any other year since records began in 1982. That's 2.52 degrees above the 1991-2020 average.
Is the Delaware coast getting warmer?
While the area where hurricanes typically develop in the Atlantic Ocean is seeing record warmth, the waters off the Delaware coast aren't seeing the same record temps, according to Eric Hoeflich, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey.
Hoeflich said the water temperatures for the Delaware coast are in the mid-60s, which is about right for this time of the year.
"We'll hit the 70s by early July, which is right on the money," Hoeflich said.
As summer progresses, the temperatures should peak in the upper 70s and may hit 80 degrees by late August and early September.
How to prepare for a hurricane: As hurricane season arrives in Delaware, here are some preparation and evacuation tips
Could Delaware face a major hurricane?
A major hurricane is classified as a Category 3 storm or higher with sustained winds of 111 mph or worse. While a major storm is possible, Hoeflich said it's rare and has happened only once or twice over the last 200 years.
Hoeflinch said generally major storms need water temperatures above 80 degrees to sustain that level of a tropical system. While Delaware may hit water temperatures of 80 degrees, it's not conducive to storm development.
Despite that good news, Delaware residents should be ready for hurricane season.
"Everyone should be prepared," Hoeflinch said. "Have an evacuation plan and the resources you need like water and a first aid kit."
What's the hurricane forecast for 2024?
While each forecast was different, they all call for a very active and potentially dangerous hurricane season impacted by warm waters and La Nina.
NOAA's forecast
Seventeen to 25 total named storms — winds of 39 mph or higher
Eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes — winds of 74 mph or higher
Four to seven are expected to be major hurricanes — a category 3 storm with winds at 111 mph or greater.
Forecasters from Colorado State University
23 named storms this year
11 will become hurricanes
Five will become major hurricanes
Accuweather.com
20 to 25 named storms
Eight to 12 hurricanes
Four to seven major hurricanes
Will La Nina impact the hurricane season?
According to NOAA, scientists are predicting a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Will Atlantic Ocean record warmth impact Delaware in hurricane season?