Republicans gain lead on Democratic voters in Bucks County. How red did we get this week?

For the first time in at least a decade Bucks County has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Department of State voter registration data shows that the GOP now leads the two major parties by just 264 people as of July 22. Democrats were ahead of Republicans by 284 voters as of July 8.

Currently, there are about 198,045 Republican voters to 197,781 Democrat voters in Bucks County, with at least 158 formerly registered Democrats or other party members switching to the GOP this week. Only 59 voters switched their party to Democrat this week.

Independents and unaffiliated voters have also grown since last November’s election, from about 80,527 voters then to 82,259 voters as of Monday.

Bucks County is now the only Philadelphia collar county with a Republican voter majority.

How the GOP grew registration in Bucks County

In the November 2023 election, by comparison, there were 197,945 Democrats and 193,910 Republicans a difference of a little more than 4,000,, according to a review of Election Day voter registration counts from the Department of State

By the April primary, the gap narrowed to 1,530 with 197,910 Democrats and 196,380 Republicans in purple Bucks County.

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Bucks County GOP Chairwoman Pat Poprik attributed the flip to various factors including enthusiasm over the recent Republican National Convention, and a growing dissatisfaction among voters with the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden Jr.

"I hear them talk about immigration and illegal immigrants living in hotels when our veterans are sleeping on crates. They can't take vacations this year. Things costing more," Poprik said. "They're tired of being registered with the party that does not follow their beliefs or do what is best for the country."

At the end of 2020 Bucks County's GOP registration was down a little more than 10,000 compared to Democrats, which is when Poprik said she made it a priority to close that gap. As of February, 150 new Republicans were being added to the rolls each week, and the deficit narrowed to 2,500, she said.

"So we calculated and saw we could do this, if we worked hard," Poprik said.

On July 22, Poprik announced on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the party was now ahead of registered Democrats, making it the only Philadelphia suburb with a Republican voter registration edge.

"It's very clear to us that it's a surge because of what is going on at the national level," Poprik said. "It’s an indication of how strongly people feel and when they feel that strongly they get out and vote."

A look at Pa. voter registration outside of Bucks County

Democrats lead Republicans by 97,775 voters in Montgomery County; 6,882 in Chester County; 57,370 in Delaware County; and there are 652,892 more Democratic voters in Philadelphia.

So far this year, an estimated 3,202 voters have shifted to the Republican Party while Democrats have seen about half that joining their ranks.

The new voter data comes just days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination in the 2024 Presidential Election and over a week since the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Butler County.

Democrats have enjoyed a solid 5-digit lead over Republicans for most of the past decade, but that advantage started narrow in 2022.

A look back at Bucks County's voter registration

In 2013, Democrats had a solid lead over Republicans by about 11,585 voters as of the Nov. 2 municipal election.

During the 2022 midterms, that lead fell to 7,667 voters ahead. Last November, Republicans were behind by just 4,035 voters.

The 2022 municipal election also saw a red wave in Bucks County with five of nine county row office seats going to the GOP. The Democrats countered with their own wave in the municipal election last November, sweeping five county row offices and flipping the boards of the Central Bucks and Pennridge school districts.

Bucks County Democrats say 'not that big a shift,' anticipate their own surge

On Wednesday Bucks County Democratic Party Chairman state Rep. Steve Santarsiero, D-10 of Lower Makefield, said that the party is working on retaking the lead, and he believes it is possible given the upcoming Democratic National Convention and the momentum around presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

"As both an absolute number and percentage of overall registration, it's not that big a shift," Santarsiero said. "I think you're about to see a big surge in enthusiasm for Democrats here in Bucks and when that happens, more people will register Democratic."

Santarsiero added that Bucks County Democrats have been winning in elections over the last two years, which gives him confidence the party will be celebrating again in November.

"At the end of the day, what matters most is winning election," Santarsiero said.

Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College, said the Bucks County registration flip isn’t a surprise.nAn unpopular incumbent president often leads to attrition in that party’s registration numbers, he said.

With the upcoming DNC and the new hype surrounding Harris, things could change, Yost said.  “It will be worth watching over the next month and half to see if that reverses,” he added.

Will unaffiliated voters in Bucks County decide?

What Yost is more interested in is the number of active registered voters in each party, which over the last two years have been “very close,” he said.

Bucks County has 183,000 active registered Democrats and 15,000 inactive, compared to 187,000 active Republicans and 11,000 inactive, he said.

Bucks County has also seen a drop in the total number of registered voters since 2020, falling from 451,000 to 444,000 over the last four years. Another factor that could come into play is automatic voter registration in the state.

Yost suspects that the biggest players in determining the outcome of the general election in Bucks County will be unaffiliated voters.

The number of active unaffiliated voters in Bucks has steadily increased since 2016 jumping from 66,000 to 74,000, Yost said, which suggests voters are fed up with both major parties.

“I think Bucks County is going to be a toss up,” Yost said. “I don’t think the new numbers do anything to change that.”

Chris Ullery is the Philadelphia Hub Data Reporter for the USA Today Network. Reach him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter at @ulleryatinell. Reporter Jo Ciavaglia can be reached at [email protected]

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Republicans overtake Democrats in Bucks County for first time in decade