Ruben Gallego maintains polling lead over Kari Lake in Arizona's Senate race

As the calendar flipped to October, polling in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race continued to show Democrat Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake with his advantage steadily outside the polls' margins of error.

Six additional surveys in the past week from four different polling firms all found Gallego ahead of Lake by margins ranging from 4 to 14 percentage points, according to figures tracked by the nonpartisan FiveThirtyEight.com.

The most recent poll, conducted by AtlasIntel, showed Gallego ahead by 4 points.

Among the 11 polls of likely voters taken during September, Gallego led all 11 by margins ranging from 4 to 14 points.

Overall, Gallego has led in 45 of the 48 polls taken in the race since U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., said in March that she would not seek a second term. Two of the three other polls showed the race tied. Lake’s only polling lead was by 1 point in a survey conducted for her campaign.

Early voting begins Oct. 9, the same day Lake and Gallego meet in their only scheduled debate of the race.

Where do political prognosticators land on Lake vs. Gallego?

Real Clear Politics, a politics website, gives Gallego a 5.8 percentage point advantage in its average of polls taken since late August.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball scores it as “leans Democratic.”

The Cook Political Report rates it as “lean Democratic.”

Inside Elections rates the race “tilt Democratic.”

What do the betting markets say about the Arizona Senate race?

The political forecast betting markets also give Gallego the nod as well.

Polymarket, which claims to be the biggest wagering market in the world, gives the Arizona Democrat an 85% chance of winning the race. That is up 2 points over the past week.

PredictIt, an online wager market created by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, shows the price of betting on the Democrat in Arizona as quadruple that of the Republican. That was down 1 cent over the past week.

What else should voters know?

AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm that tracks political advertising nationwide, reported last week that Arizona’s Senate race had the second-largest ad spending disparity of the seven competitive races this year.

Democrats had a $22.6 million advantage in the race over Republicans in Arizona in the Gallego-Lake race, AdImpact said.

The only disparity that was more one-sided was the $22.7 million GOP advantage in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

Arizona Democrats have won three straight Senate races beginning in 2018. That streak snapped a 30-year elective drought that included nine straight Republican wins.

Since Sinema won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat, the party has won by about 2 percentage points each time.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Ruben Gallego holds poll lead over Kari Lake 6 weeks ahead of election