Who will run in Iowa's competitive 3rd District? Democrats have yet to field a challenger
A slate of progressive speakers lined up at the politically irreverent downtown Des Moines T-shirt shop Raygun on a recent August morning to tout a new effort to hold U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn accountable on issues like inflation and prescription drug pricing.
Freshly printed blue tees with the phrase "Iowa needs a fair economy, but we got Nunn" hung as a backdrop as progressive leaders took turns at the microphone.
It very well could have been a late-summer Democratic campaign event intended to drive messaging in this central Iowa swing district but for one thing: There was no candidate.
In a state where Democrats are grasping for opportunities to claw back power, the party has yet to field a single contender in its most competitive congressional district — a 3rd District seat that has flipped in two of the last three elections and could be important in deciding control of Congress.
"Nunn starts as the favorite owing to incumbency, but it is the most winnable seat for Democrats in Iowa," said David Wasserman, a senior editor analyzing U.S. House elections for the Cook Political Report. "So it is a bit surprising that Democrats don't have a credible announced candidate."
Iowa’s 3rd District is one of 33 seats the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted as a top pickup opportunity in the 2024 elections. Cook Political Report rates it as a "leans Republican" district, or a race that's slightly more favorable to Republicans than a true "toss-up" opportunity.
Democrats say they see Nunn, a first-term congressman who won by less than a percentage point, as vulnerable.
But, so far, no one has stepped up to challenge him.
Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said the party has had "great conversations” around identifying candidates and preparing them to run.
“There’s a lot of scrutiny on this,” she said. “But I can tell you that Democrats understand how important this is — that nothing worthwhile comes about without hard work. And that’s what we’re going to make sure we do in order to improve more Iowans’ lives by electing more Democrats.”
Which Democrats might run in Iowa's 3rd District?
Wasserman said that although there's an opening, Democrats will need a strong candidate to compete in the 3rd District.
"It will take a really strong Democratic candidate to beat Nunn, because Nunn hasn't given Democrats many obvious openings since taking office," he said.
Over the last 10 years, the challenging party’s eventual nominee has announced their candidacy for the 3rd District by mid-August of the year preceding the general election.
Now, as the calendar stretches beyond Labor Day, Democrats are still waiting. What's more concerning, some say privately, is that relatively few names are being circulated as possible contenders.
Democrat Cindy Axne, who represented the district for two terms but was defeated by Nunn in 2022, has taken a senior role with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, appearing to indicate she will sit out the 2024 election. Axne could not be reached for comment.
Other names floated by political insiders include Theresa Greenfield, who unsuccessfully ran against Republican Joni Ernst for the U.S. Senate in 2020. Greenfield has also been serving in the USDA after Democratic President Joe Biden appointed her in 2021 as the director of rural development for Iowa. She did not return a request for comment.
House Democratic Leader Jennifer Konfrst, of Windsor Heights, and state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, of West Des Moines, are two high-profile 3rd District Democrats whom others had floated as possibilities. But both told the Des Moines Register they were not planning to run for Congress in 2024.
Konfrst said she is “committed to staying in the (state) House and being the first Democratic woman speaker.”
Trone Garriott, who became one of the party's few bright spots in 2022 when she defeated then-Republican Senate President Jake Chapman, is expected to face a competitive re-election bid in 2024 following redistricting changes. She told the Register she is focused “on the state Senate and state-level politics.”
Konfrst said rather than jumping in too early, it's more important to ensure a candidate is set up for success.
"I've obviously talked to the DCCC quite a bit in terms of what they're looking for and the work they're doing on the ground,” she said. “But we're not going to base this on a timeline that someone else thinks is necessary. We're going to have good people running for office. We're going to make sure the right people are running for Congress, and that they're set up to succeed.”
Former state Sen. Christina Bohannan announced last month she will run in Iowa’s new 1st Congressional District, setting up a potential rematch with Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
And two Democrats — Ryan Melton and Jay Brown — have said they plan to run against Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra in the deeply conservative 4th District.
Iowa’s 2nd District is also awaiting a Democratic candidate to run against Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson. Elections analyst Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates that race as a “likely Republican” victory, and Cook Political Report does not place it in any of its competitive categories.
Getting a campaign off the ground relatively early helps challengers mount a robust fundraising strategy.
Nunn has been able to raise money since he was elected last fall and has more than $1.1 million in cash on hand, according to his most recent financial report. And as Republican presidential candidates flood the state ahead of the 2024 GOP caucuses, Nunn has lapped up attention from people like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who headlined a major fundraiser for him this summer.
"The later a Democrat jumps in, the larger fundraising disadvantage there will be relative to Nunn," Wasserman said. "So Democrats probably need to land someone by the end of the year to have a realistic shot — or find someone who can self-fund a campaign."
It's not unusual for candidates to wait until the start of a new fundraising quarter to announce their campaigns, allowing them to raise money throughout the entire quarter so they can announce a larger sum during quarterly fundraising reports. The current fundraising quarter ends Sept. 30.
Democrats preach bottom-up approach to winning elections
Iowa Democrats are struggling to regain their footing in a state where Republicans have steamrolled them in elections and in enacting policy at the Statehouse.
For the first time in decades, Iowa sent an all-Republican delegation to Congress after Democrats lost the 3rd District race to Nunn.
And at the state level, Republicans ousted two longtime Democratic incumbents serving as attorney general and state treasurer. The top-ranking Democrat in the state is Auditor Rob Sand, who is the only Democrat holding statewide office.
Democrats also lost ground in the Legislature, where expanded Republican majorities ushered through major tax cuts, a “school choice” program that liberals saw as a swipe at public schools, and restrictions on LGBTQ Iowans.
Hart took over the party earlier this year, and Democrats have expressed optimism about her leadership. But there is a long road ahead.
More: Party chair Rita Hart has a plan to bring Iowa Democrats back to victory. Can it work?
Trone Garriott said it’s important to have an approach that builds from the local level on up.
"I think for a long time, there's been a top-down focus,” she said. “You know, we're going to let the caucuses happen and lots of attention and engagement through that. We're going to focus on presidential campaigns, congressional races. But I think it's really important that local parties, county parties, are building from the ground up.”
Konfrst said that Democrats’ efforts to boost legislative candidates will also help those running for Congress, particularly in the suburban areas within the 3rd District.
"It's going to take joint efforts to boost turnout in the suburbs of Polk County and Dallas County, and it just so happens those are the areas that we're also focusing on in the House,” she said. “So I imagine we'll work closely in the House with the congressional candidate because we want turnout in Johnston just like they do, and we need turnout in Altoona just like they do.”
Progress Iowa Executive Director Matt Sinovic said progressives can still mobilize around issues in the absence of a candidate, and he argued that his group and others should be focused on making sure Iowans understand how the issues are affecting them — even in the absence of a candidate.
"This effort is about making sure that people are educated about his record," Sinovic said at the August event focused on Nunn. "I think the rest — the politics — will just sort themselves out."
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at [email protected] or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Democrats need to choose a challenger for Zach Nunn ahead of 2024