SNP leads Labour by just two points after heavy by-election loss
The Scottish National Party leads Labour by just two points in the first poll published after its heavy by-election loss in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
Support for the SNP fell by a point to put the party on 34 per cent, according to research carried out by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
This puts the SNP two points ahead of Labour, who are down by three points on 32 per cent, while the Conservatives in Scotland are up by six points to 21 per cent.
Data from the same pollster also reveals that only 19 per cent of voters consider Scottish independence and the union one of their top three priorities for the next election.
Philip van Scheltinga, research director at Redfield & Wilton, said: “Our polling quite clearly shows that Scottish voters have other priorities than independence. The SNP’s argument that the next General Election should be seen in Scotland as a referendum on independence has therefore fallen flat.”
It comes after Sir Keir Starmer claimed the Rutherglen result proves Labour is the true “party of change” after Rishi Sunak on Wednesday aimed to portray the Conservatives as the party wanting to “do things differently” before next year’s national poll.
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04:27 PM BST
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04:26 PM BST
Prime Minister scrapped HS2 because 'facts changed'
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he scrapped HS2 because the “facts changed” and that “people will start seeing the benefits of the decision very quickly”.
Speaking to LBC on Friday he said: “I have been struck by the fact that politics isn’t working in the long term so I’m changing how you do politics and doing what’s right in the long term.
“The facts have changed since the project was greenlit. The costs have doubled and since the pandemic and the evidence shows we need a different forms of transport, so you need the courage to change direction as the facts change.
“It is right that local leaders are given the funding and make the right decisions for their area. I think that’s a better use of ￡36 million and people will start seeing the benefits of the decision very quickly”.
He also said Euston will be developed into a Battersea Power Station style hub complete with a homes for Londoners.
03:45 PM BST
Flynn has denied that Yousaf's position is fragile
Stephen Flynn, SNP’s leader at Westminster, has said that Humza Yousaf’s position was not fragile despite the by-election result.
He told BBC Radio Scotland: “I don’t think that the First Minister is in any trouble whatsoever. He’s had a lot to deal with internally, and I think the public are very well aware of that – I think he’s done a remarkably good job in that regard.”
Flynn also called for party unity ahead of its annual conference on 15 October.
He added: “We win as a collective and we lose as a collective, and we need to come together now and reflect upon what’s happened and make sure that it doesn’t happen again.”
03:12 PM BST
Pictured: Humza Yousaf speaks to media outside the V&A in Dundee
02:50 PM BST
Yousaf said the SNP should take its defeat 'on the chin'
Humza Yousaf has said the SNP should take its defeat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton by-election “on the chin” as voters sent a message to the party.
Speaking from Dundee on Friday the First Minister for Scotland said: “It’s a tough day for the SNP, a disappointing result, there’s no point pretending otherwise.”
He said “a number of factors” were at play, including the “reckless actions” of former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier, whose breaking of Covid regulations led to her being kicked out of the party and a recall petition which sparked the by-election.
Mr Yousaf added: “The SNP has to really take the result on the chin as well and understand there’s a message that voters are sending to us too.
“We will reflect, regroup and we’ll reorganise, and come back stronger.”
02:30 PM BST
No more 'business as usual', restless SNP tells Humza Yousaf
Humza Yousaf is facing demands from within the SNP to “wake up” and drop a series of unpopular policies after a historic by-election drubbing, writes Daniel Sanderson, our Scotland Correspondent.
The First Minister was directly challenged on Friday by Stephen Flynn, the party’s Westminster leader, not to downplay the significance of the defeat or seek to blame it entirely on factors outside of his control.
The scale of the SNP collapse has alarmed party insiders who fear it is set to be trounced at next year’s general election.
They are demanding that Mr Yousaf urgently set out a new strategy at the SNP conference next weekend, amid growing concern over his stance on Net Zero, independence strategy, gender self-ID and alliance with the far-left Scottish Greens.
While Mr Flynn did not directly criticise Mr Yousaf, he warned that the SNP could not carry on with “business as usual”.
The intervention was seen by SNP insiders as a clear “shot across the bows” at the First Minister, whose allies have attempted to blame former MP Margaret Ferrier’s Covid rule-breaking and tactical voting by Tories for the size of the defeat.
02:22 PM BST
Rishi Sunak to answer LBC listeners' questions this afternoon
This from LBC’s Political Editor Natasha Clark:
02:08 PM BST
'Days to save his First Ministership'
Scotland’s First Minister has just “days” to save his job after defeat in Rutherglen, one of his predecessors has said.
Alex Salmond made the remarks after Humza Yousaf oversaw a heavy SNP defeat in which Labour regained the constituency with a swing of more than 20 per cent.
Mr Salmond, who also led the SNP but is now in charge of the breakaway Alba Party, told the PA news agency: “[The result] is something that the SNP have been asking for. The SNP fought an incompetent campaign in an unnecessary by-election and were comprehensively dropped by Labour.
“I see that Humza says it’s disappointing, well I don’t think that quite gets the enormity of what he’s facing. In my view, Humza’s got days to save his First Ministership.”
In separate remarks, Mr Yousaf said: “We’re not thinking about standing on anything other than the SNP’s message. We will reflect, we’ll reorganise, we’ll regroup as a political party.
“What I would say is that those that believe in independence believe that Scotland’s better days are as an independent nation, then it is important that - yes, of course we can be distinct parties, different parties - but come together with a common interest.”
02:01 PM BST
Rishi Sunak likes ‘Oppenheimer’ over ‘Barbie’ and once went to fancy dress party as Harry Potter
Rishi Sunak has said that he preferred Oppenheimer to the Barbie film – and that he once dressed as Harry Potter at a fancy dress party.
The Prime Minister finally delivered his verdict on the “Barbenheimer” debate that divided cinema-goers across the country this summer.
Appearing on the This Morning sofa today, he also revealed that he has become hooked on the new Netflix documentary about David Beckham.
Mr Sunak made the remarks in a quick-fire question round after defending his decisions to ban smoking and axe the northern leg of the HS2 line.
Nick Gutteridge, our Whitehall Correspondent, has more here
01:45 PM BST
SNP just two points ahead of Labour, newest Scotland polling shows
The Scottish National Party leads Labour by just two points in the first poll published after its heavy by-election loss in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
Support for the SNP fell by a point to put the party on 34 per cent, according to research carried out by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
This puts the SNP two points ahead of Labour, who are down by three points on 32 per cent, while the Conservatives in Scotland are up by six points to 21 per cent.
Data from the same pollster also reveals that only 19 per cent of voters consider Scottish independence and the union one of their top three priorities for the next election.
Philip van Scheltinga, research director at Redfield & Wilton, said: “Our polling quite clearly shows that Scottish voters have other priorities than independence. The SNP’s argument that the next General Election should be seen in Scotland as a referendum on independence has therefore fallen flat.”
01:14 PM BST
'You blew the doors off!'
Sir Keir Starmer has told Labour activists they “blew the doors off” in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
“They said that we couldn’t change the Labour Party and we did it,” the Labour leader said.
“They said that we couldn’t win in the south of England and the north of England, and we did it.
“They said ‘you’ll never beat the SNP in Scotland’ and Rutherglen, you did it. You blew the doors off!”
12:38 PM BST
Henry Hill: Time to put devolution out of its misery
Well, Labour smashed it, writes Henry Hill. Given the state of the polls, even a narrow win in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election would have potentially been tricky for Labour. But there’s no quibbling with 59 per cent of the vote.
Sir Keir Starmer can look forward to kicking off his party’s conference in Liverpool next week with the wind in his sails – in stark contrast to the Conservatives, who (despite an optimistic review from the party chairman) have failed to generate the usual post-conference bounce from their sojourn in Manchester.
This result also bodes well for Labour at the general election. While projections that they could win back over 40 seats are probably wide of the mark, recent estimates that they could take 20 or more off the SNP now look very plausible indeed, making Starmer’s path to Downing Street that much easier.
And that, in turn, will compound the SNP’s problems; the more realistic a Labour government looks, the more likely it is that left-leaning, soft-nationalist voters will switch to Labour. It’s one thing to back the Nats to send a signal to the triumphant Tories, quite another to do so when that risks letting them back in.
Henry Hill: How this by-election could help the Scottish Tories
12:20 PM BST
Mapped: The first SNP by-election defeat in a very long time
12:03 PM BST
Labour: We have a message of hope
Labour is now targeting a majority of Scottish seats at the next general election, the party’s deputy leader has revealed.
Dame Jackie Baillie said the result in Rutherglen and Hamilton West showed Labour could replace the SNP as the largest party north of the border and even speculated that the nationalists could finish third, writes Daniel Sanderson.
Her comments came after a victory rally held in Rutherglen, in which Sir Keir Starmer told jubilant activists that it was clear that only his party were offering change.
The result of the by-election means Labour still have only two Scottish MPs, but Dame Jackie said that her party was targeting at least 28 of the 57 seats up for grabs next year. She said the constituency was a “weather-vane” seat and showed Labour could make major gains across Scotland.
“It demonstrates that we can win a majority of seats in Scotland, pushing the SNP into second, if not third place,” Dame Jackie said following the rally. “I think all bets are off when it comes to the general election. We will work every seat as hard as we’ve worked Rutherglen and Hamilton West. We’ll take nothing for granted.
“But we had a message of hope against a backdrop of culture wars from the Tories and really quite vicious attacks from the SNP on Labour.”
11:05 AM BST
'We are now the party of change here in Scotland'
Speaking at a victory rally alongside Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour candidate Michael Shanks, Sir Keir Starmer said voters “not so long ago saw a Labour Party that had drifted away from them”.
“We’ve changed, and because we’ve changed we are now the party of change here in Scotland,” the Labour leader said.
“We’re the party of change in Britain, we’re the party of change right across the whole country.”
10:32 AM BST
Sir Keir Starmer arrives at Labour victory rally
Sir Keir Starmer has arrived at a victory rally in Rutherglen with Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, and Michael Shanks, the party’s newest MP, writes Simon Johnson.
10:13 AM BST
‘The Tories will not win the next election under the axis of Sunak and Hunt’
The Conservative Party conference dominated the headlines this week, provoking much debate.
Telegraph readers also shared their thoughts on the Var system causing controversy at another Premier League game, as well as Nick Robinson’s defence of the BBC.
09:53 AM BST
Unionists voted tactically to trounce Scottish nationalists
The Tories only attracted 3.9 per cent of the vote in the by-election, compared with 15 per cent at the last general election, reprots Daniel Sanderson.
Michael Shanks, the Labour candidate, easily overturned a majority of 5,230 won by Margaret Ferrier, who was later ousted by constituents for breaking Covid rules, for the SNP in 2019. He now holds a majority of 9,401.
Keith Brown, the SNP deputy leader, insisted his party had run a “positive, energetic and engaging campaign” despite the disappointing result.
He appeared to acknowledge that unionists had voted tactically to trounce the SNP.
09:41 AM BST
'The SNP is exhausted and divided. Yousaf is in deep trouble'
In the immediate aftermath of Labour’s impressive victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, the SNP found itself going through the traditional gamut of excuses for their loss – exactly the kind of excuses that establishment parties always use when effectively challenged by insurgents, writes Tom Harris.
Turnout was low (true, although not as low as expected); the circumstances in which the contest came about were unique (definitely true: no other MP in Britain has ever been recalled by the voters after breaking lockdown rules); traditional Tory voters piled in behind Labour in order to beat the SNP (also true).
For Humza Yousaf, the First Minister, none of these factors could remotely camouflage the impressive scale of Labour’s victory, nor entirely excuse the nationalists’ defeat.
Yes, this was a seat that was held briefly by Labour between the elections of 2017 and 2019. But when the SNP lost it five years ago, it was to a wafer-thin Labour majority of 265 – hardly comparable to Michael Shanks’s 9446, representing a swing of more than 20 per cent from the SNP.
Tom Harris: The SNP now faces a very bad general election
09:21 AM BST
Watch: Labour vows to retake Scotland after trouncing the SNP
09:12 AM BST
'Labour juggernaut' could crush SNP, warns former staffer
The SNP must now “get back on the side of public opinion” following its by-election “drubbing” at the hands of Labour, a former senior party staffer has claimed. Daniel Sanderson, our Scottish Correspondent, has the details:
Fergus Mutch, who worked as SNP director of communications and was a parliamentary candidate, said the scale of the loss exposed “deep problems” within the party and warned it faced being crushed by a “Labour juggernaut”.
“The fact is, this isn’t a 10 to 15 per cent loss, it’s a two-to-one drubbing,” Mr Mutch said. “That points to some pretty deep problems in leadership, policy, lack of ideas from the SNP.
“They have not looked like a party on the front foot for some time. I don’t think they’ve necessarily faced up to the Labour juggernaut that’s about to rumble right over the top of them.
“If I was still working for the SNP, I’d be saying we must use this result as a point of departure, and frankly, get back on the side of public opinion, reclaim the status as the national party of Scotland. As far as I can see, they’re not really waking up to that yet, perhaps last night’s result will make a difference.”
He added that it appeared voters in Labour’s former Central Belt heartlands were now ready to “put their trust in Labour again”.
09:04 AM BST
'Desire for change' behind Labour's win
Labour’s national campaign coordinator has argued Rutherglen and Hamilton West shows a “desire for change” among voters in Scotland.
Pat McFadden argued the result was caused by disillusionment with the SNP and the electorate wanting to embrace the alternative offered by Anas Sarwar.
“It’s such a big signal of a desire for change in Scotland, where the SNP have been in power for 16 years now,” he told Sky.
Asked whether his party could replicate its victory at the next election, Mr McFadden said: “If we can gain more seats in Scotland, it brings the prospect of a Labour government that much closer.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do between now and the next election and we’ve got our conference starting in Liverpool this weekend, where we’ll be setting out more about the kind of change that we want to bring.”
08:52 AM BST
SNP can't just blame Ferrier row or police probe, says Stephen Flynn
Stephen Flynn has admitted that the SNP’s humiliating defeat in the Rutherglen by-election was not just caused by Margaret Ferrier or the police investigation into party finances, Daniel Sanderson reports.
While the SNP’s Westminster leader declined to directly criticise Humza Yousaf, he called on his party to “reflect” on why Labour’s margin of victory had been so large.
He warned that it would be a mistake to attempt to spin the result to blame it entirely on factors outside of the SNP’s control.
His comments come amid growing disquiet within SNP ranks over Mr Yousaf’s Net Zero, independence and taxation policies, as well as his alliance with the far-left Scottish Greens.
Mr Flynn represents an Aberdeen seat and has previously warned against an “early shutdown” of the North Sea.
08:33 AM BST
Jackie Baillie: Route to Labour majority runs through Scotland
Labour winning a majority in the Commons at the next general election depends on sucecss in Scotland, the deputy leader of the Scottish branch of the party said this morning.
Jackie Baillie predicted the “majority of seats across Scotland” could turn red at the next national poll as she hailed an “astonishing” result in Rutherglen.
Ms Baillie told Times Radio: “The last time we won a parliamentary seat in a by-election was 12 years ago. And I don’t think we’ve ever won a by-election where the SNP were in charge at the time. So this is truly astonishing.
“What is more astonishing is not just to win the seat from the SNP, but to do so with a 20 per cent swing is just incredible because that puts into contention a number of seats across Scotland, in fact probably the majority of seats across Scotland.
“And the reason I’m so pleased about that is not just because it looks as if the Labour Party is back in Scotland, but it also means that the route to a majority Labour government, kicking out the Tories from number 10, runs through Scotland as well. So it is a party of the whole of the United Kingdom.”
08:24 AM BST
'We are now looking at the potential for an SNP wipeout'
The results of a seismic by-election in Scotland shows there is the opportunity for an “SNP wipeout” at the next general election, a senior Scottish Tory has claimed.
Daniel Sanderson, our Scotland Correspondent, writes:
Miles Briggs, a member of the shadow cabinet at Holyrood, said the by-election result in Rutherglen and Hamilton West showed unionists were prepared to vote tactically to defeat the nationalists.
The Scottish Tories lost their deposit in the seat, which was convincingly won by Labour, although Mr Briggs claimed thousands of Conservatives had voted for Sir Keir Starmer’s party to oust the SNP.
He predicted that unionists would return the favour in several seats across Scotland which have traditionally been contested between the Tories and the nationalists next year.
“I think what we’re going to see at the next general election is a very different election in Scotland,” Mr Briggs said. “That is who is best placed to remove the SNP MP. We are looking now at the potential for an SNP wipeout at the next general election.”
08:20 AM BST
SNP Westminster leader: No more 'business as usual'
The SNP’s Westminster leader admitted this morning that his party cannot carry on with “business as usual” following the Rutherglen result.
Stephen Flynn told BBC Breakfast while there had been “long-standing challenges”, including party disunity and the circumstances of Margaret Ferrier’s recall (see 6.21am), wider changes had to be made.
“We’ve had long-standing challenges in relation to Margaret Ferrier and her conduct in terms of breaking coronavirus rules, we’ve obviously had a lot of internal differences over recent months,” Mr Flynn said.
He added: “We have lost by a significant margin, we know that our vote has not turned out and we know that we need to remotivate people to vote for the Scottish National Party.
“Ultimately the Scottish National Party has unfinished business ... and I want to get on and ensure that we are an independent nation before too long. The party needs to recognise it can’t just be business as usual. I don’t think anybody is going to say it should just be business as usual.”
08:14 AM BST
Anas Sarwar: Scottish politics has 'fundamentally changed'
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, has insisted that Scottish politics has now “fundamentally changed”, writes Daniel Sanderson, The Telegraph’s Scotland Correspondent.
While Labour was widely expected to win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat from the SNP, the size of the victory has taken many analysts by surprise.
”I think it was genuinely a historic night in Scottish politics,” Mr Sarwar told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland.
“We didn’t expect it to be as good as it was, and I think it demonstrates that people across Rutherglen and Hamilton West are tired of two failing governments.”
07:50 AM BST
Scottish Labour leader: Our win is because of Starmer
Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour leader, told BBC Breakfast in the past few minutes:
The result that we had overnight would not have been possible if Keir Starmer hadn’t changed the UK Labour Party, if he hadn’t demonstrated that we can win the next general election, coming through the worst result in living memory to get us in a place where we can win that next general election.
07:45 AM BST
Minister: Labour victory part of a 'natural' backlash
Labour’s victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West was part of a “natural” backlash to the SNP administration, a Government frontbencher has said.
Huw Merriman, a minister at the Department for Transport, told Times Radio: “This was an election which is focussed against the ruling SNP government, so it’s no surprise to see a backlash.
“It’s a sort of natural consequence when there’s a backlash against a sitting government party and that was the SNP. So it’s no surprise at all to see them win it back.”
In a separate interview with Sky News, Mr Merriman also downplayed the Tories’ own performance, which saw them win just over three per cent of the vote, down from around 15 per cent, with their candiate losing their deposit.
“I’m not surprised to see all of those who disagree with the SNP crowding around one particular candidate - and that candidate has succeeded,” he said. “That’s how by-elections work. We know that, we see it all the time.”
07:18 AM BST
SNP will 'listen very carefully', says frontbencher
Asked “what went wrong” for the SNP last night, Alison Thewliss, the SNP’s home affairs spokesman, told LBC Radio: “I think everybody would accept that this is not the result the SNP were hoping for in this election. Labour have managed to double their votes from one seat to two last night, so clearly a big night for them.”
Ms Thewliss added: “Voters on the doorsteps, many of them didn’t go out to vote. It was absolutely pouring for much of yesterday, it wasn’t a very clement day... [with] a turnout of 37 per cent, I’m not sure you can extrapolate this result and apply it to a general election, which I’m sure will be quite different.
“Clearly, we will listen very carefully to what the voters have said and we will look at our campaign in the election coming forward. But this particular constituency has flipped backwards and forwards between Labour and the SNP at every election since 2015.”
Asked whether Scotland had fallen out of love with the SNP, Ms Thewliss replied: “This has been a difficult night for us and we will continue to speak to voters and see what we can do... I think it’s perhaps a little early to say that.”
07:00 AM BST
Prof Sir John Curtice: History bodes well for Labour
Professor Sir John Curtice compared last night’s result to Labour’s by-election victory in Selby and Ainsty in July.
“By-election swings on this scale are the kind of swings that historically at least oppositions have secured when they’re going to go on to win the next general election,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
On what Labour can credibly hope for at the next election, Prof Sir John replied: “Labour’s claims that they might win 24 seats, which has probably been the most widely-quoted figure they’ve given, that certainly looks possible.
“The SNP, if they were kind of hoping that maybe the Labour challenge would disappear, it’s now clear the SNP have to work out how they are going to improve their popularity amongst voters in Scotland, and there’s some obvious problems in particular, not least the continuing division, public division, that’s going on in the party, together with the fact that frankly Mr Yousaf just isn’t as popular as his predecessor [Nicola Sturgeon].
“Unless he can begin to address some of those problems, it is at risk of losing a significant number of its seats at the next general election. And that doesn’t just matter to Scotland because if Sir Keir Starmer can start winning seats in Scotland, his chances of getting an overall majority and avoiding a hung parliament increase quite significantly.”
06:54 AM BST
Scale of Labour win 'undoubtedly' a surprise
Britain’s leading polling expert has said he was “undoubtedly” surprised by the scale of Labour’s victory overnight.
Asked whether he regarded the result as unexpected, Professor Sir John Curtice told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Yes, undoubtedly. If you look at the recent opinion polls across Scotland as a whole, so far as voting intention for Westminster is concerned, they are pointing on average to something like an 11-point swing from the SNP to Labour.
“Quite substantial, an outcome with which I think Labour would have been perfectly content if that is what had transpired in Rutherglen last night. But in the end was nearly twice that. It was the order of 20 per cent.”
Prof Sir John added the result “was the kind of result we would expect in this constituency before the 2014 referendum”, suggesting Labour could recover its fortunes prior to the dominance of the SNP in Scottish politics from 2015 onwards.
06:42 AM BST
Could Scottish independence help the SNP recover?
Joe Twyman, the director of Deltapoll, suggested hope may not be lost for the SNP.
Asked about Humza Yousaf’s first by-election test, Mr Twyman told Sky News: “Potentially, [the SNP] may still be able to rely on this core of ‘yes’ voters if they can get them to turn out.”
He added: “Can they get [‘yes’ voters] to turn out at an election, or will all that has gone on in Scottish politics over the last few months and indeed years mean that, for whatever reason, SNP voters decide at the next election that, yes, they may identify with the party, and yes, they may identify with voting ‘yes’ in an independence referendum, but actually they’re going to sit the next one out and not turn up at the ballot box? That’s the big question.”
06:38 AM BST
Labour has 'enormous momentum' as party prepares for conference
Labour now has “enormous momentum” going into its annual conference and could win as many as 40 Scottish seats at the next election, a polling expert has said of the Rutherglen result.
Joe Twyman, the director of Deltapoll, noted the victory will provide a boost for Sir Keir Starmer ahead of his party’s gathering in Liverpool, which begins on Sunday, and could also bode well for next year’s general election.
Mr Tywman told Sky News: “The most important thing is to say straight off the bat, as we always say at times like this, by-elections are unusual in many weird and wonderful ways and it’s really important not to read too much into a single by-election result.
“But having said that, there’s no doubt that the size of the swing in this case, the margin of victory that Labour achieved, hands them enormous momentum going into their conference. The reason for that is there are 59 seats in Scotland, and Labour held, at the last election, one.
“And so to build on that is going to be hugely, hugely important for Labour to get the 126 gains that they need at the upcoming general election in order to get a majority. And so the question was what would Scotland play in that, and at least on the basis of last night it could provide, potentially, a huge number of those seats.
“In fact, the analysis suggests as many as 40 if this result was replicated at an election, but that is a big if. Because what we still don’t know is what the ‘yes’ voters did, and by that I mean: have Labour managed to break the connection between voting ‘yes’ at the Scottish referendum and voting SNP? If they’re moving to Labour, that is a big win for them in Scotland and a big win for them nationally too.”
06:32 AM BST
Michael Shanks, the newest MP: I will be your champion
Michael Shanks, the newest Labour face in the Commons, wrote on Twitter in the early hours of this morning:
06:21 AM BST
Why was the Rutherglen by-election held?
The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election was the first held in Scotland as a result of a recall petition.
Margaret Ferrier, the constituency’s lockdown-breaking former MP, was from the Commons after a petition by constituents – the fourth in UK history – met the threshold to spark a fresh vote.
The initial challenge was set in motion when Ms Ferrier was suspended from the Commons for 30 days over a major breach of Covid rules.
She was subsequently stripped of the SNP whip, and had already been instructed to carry out 270 hours of unpaid work after she admitted putting the lives of others at risk by ignoring orders to self-isolate in September 2020.
06:12 AM BST
Polling guru: Labour will dominate in Scotland if result replicated
Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain’s foremost polling guru, told the BBC:
By-elections will often exaggerate the swing against the Government.
But still, it’s the direction of travel that you cannot ignore in this by-election.
I suspect if this kind of swing was to replicate across Scotland as a whole, you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border once again.
06:10 AM BST
Rutherglen and Hamilton West: We have 'work to do', SNP admits after crushing defeat
The SNP’s defeat in Rutherglen and Hamilton West marks its first by-election loss in 16 years.
And deputy leader Keith Brown has admitted that the Scottish nationalists have “work to do” ahead of the next general election, which will be held next year.
“Of course it’s a challenge,” Mr Brown told reporters after the result was announced.
“I do feel confident, if we can get the offer right, then rather than the declining, managed decline of the UK, its economy and so on, one of the most unequal countries in the world, we can move forward to a brighter future with independence.
“But we have to get the offer right and we’ve got work to do.”
06:04 AM BST
‘Trailblazer’ Humza Yousaf picks the wrong ‘Time’ to lose his temper
It’s not unusual for political leaders to get angry after losing an argument but I’ve seldom seen anyone lose the plot so badly as Humza Yousaf managed yesterday, writes Alan Cochrane.
That was the situation when on the day his picture was surprisingly splashed across the cover of Time, the international news magazine, Scotland’s First Minister was ordered, not once but three times, to apologise after accusing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross of lying.
It would be churlish not to congratulate Yousaf for achieving that international accolade, but at the same time most observers would be left wondering where that once-prestigious organ gets its information about Scotland.
After all, Yousaf is not exactly the current pin-up boy of Scottish politics … or even in his own party. And as for being a “trailblazer” as Time describes him, the “trail” to where, please?
Alan Cochrane: How Humza Yousaf broke the strictest rule of politics
05:56 AM BST
Shadow Scottish Labour minister: This is a groundbreaking result
05:45 AM BST
'There's no part of the United Kingdom that Labour can't win'
Labour can win across the whole of the UK after sweeping to victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, its newest MP has said.
Michael Shanks, a 35-year-old secondary school teacher, made the remarks as he celebrated a night that saw Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar’s party win almost three in five votes in the constituency.
“There’s absolutely no doubt that this result shows that there’s no part of the United Kingdom that Labour can’t win,” he told Sky News.
“It’s been a long time in Scotland, Labour building back to a place where people can trust us again. The leadership of Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar has got us to a place where people have put their trust in us.”
05:36 AM BST
SNP MP urges 'calm heads'
An SNP MP has urged “calm heads” in the wake of the party’s defeat at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
David Linden, the party’s spokesman for social justice at Westminster, claimed on Twitter commentators were getting “wildly carried away” about the significance of the swing towards Labour:
The SNP won Glasgow East in 2008 with a swing of 22.5 percentage points, only for Labour to re-take the seat at the general election two years later with a swing of 18.5 points.
Mr Linden told the Politico website: “The seat has swung back and forth like a pendulum at every election since 2010. Onwards to the general election, where I expect a very different result.”
05:30 AM BST
Good morning
Dominic Penna here, The Telegraph’s Political Correspondent, guiding you through what is already an extraordinary day in politics.
The Labour Party has won a stunning victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
Michael Shanks was elected as the new MP for the constituency, defeating SNP candidate Katy Loudon by 17,845 votes to 8,399.
It marks a swing of 20.4 per cent to Labour, and will raise questions for Humza Yousaf’s party after a torrid few months – while Sir Keir Starmer will be buoyed at proof of a Labour recovery in Scotland which, if replicated a general election, could lead to a virtual clean sweep north of the border.
04:13 AM BST
'Remarkable result' for Labour, says Curtice
John Curtice said it was a “remarkable result” for the Labour party, which comes on the eve of its annual conference next week.
“This is the kind of result that suggests that the Labour Party is potentially capable of winning seats again in Scotland,” he told BBC News.
03:40 AM BST
Tory candidate blames tactical voting
Thomas Kerr, the Tory candidate in Rutherglen and Hamilton West has blamed his party’s defeat in the seat on tactical voters.
Mr Kerr said he was disappointed after the Scottish Conservatives won just 1,192 ballots, or 3.9 per cent of the vote, and lost their deposit.
The councillor for Shettleston said tactical voting “squeezed” Conservative support while voters were keen to “send a message” to the SNP.
03:21 AM BST
We’ll retake Scotland, says Labour
Labour is on the verge of a major comeback in Scotland in next year’s general election that could propel Sir Keir Starmer into Downing Street, the party has declared, after trouncing the SNP in a “seismic” by-election.
Read Simon Johnson’s full report here.
02:45 AM BST
I will be your champion, says new MP
Michael Shanks, the new Labour MP, said: “It is the honour of my life to have been elected as the MP for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
“Thank you to all those who helped deliver this result.
“The largest thanks goes to all those who have put their trust in me. My promise in return is a simple one: I will be your champion.”
02:44 AM BST
Yousaf points to fall in Tory vote
Humza Yousaf, the SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, posted on X: “A disappointing night for the SNP. I want to thank our exceptional candidate @KatyLoudonSNP and our activists for their incredible efforts. Let me also congratulate Michael Shanks on being elected. Circumstances of this by-election were always very difficult for us.
“Collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour, also a significant factor. We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back. However, we will reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen & Hamilton West.”
02:18 AM BST
Sarwar: ‘Scottish politics has changed’
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, posted on X: “This seismic result shows Scottish politics has changed.
“Scots are tired of two tired, failing and incompetent governments.
“Scottish Labour is now the party of change and tonight demonstrates Scotland will lead the way in delivering a Labour Government.”
He also shared a tweet congratulating Michael Shanks, the new MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
02:15 AM BST
Swing of 20.4pc from SNP to Labour
The vote swing was 20.4 per cent from Labour to the SNP.
Sir John Curtice said that if this swing was replicated across Scotland in a general election, Labour would win 42 seats - up from only one in the 2019 election.
The SNP would win only six seats, down from the 48 they achieved in 2019 and returning to the number they had before the 2014 independence referendum.
02:14 AM BST
Starmer: ‘It is time for a change’
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message - it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it.
“I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential. Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three and a half years of hard work and humility on that journey. I am grateful to everyone who has put their faith in us today - we will work every day to repay it.
“Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country. They want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting.
“The country deserves a government firmly on their side and focused on their priorities - and Labour will deliver that for them.”
01:53 AM BST
Where the votes went
Labour - 17,845
SNP - 8,399
Conservatives - 1,192
Liberal Democrats - 895
Greens - 601
01:48 AM BST
Labour wins Rutherglen by-election
It’s a resounding victory for Labour with more than 17,000 votes, easily beating the SNP into second, who picked up only 8,399, down from 23,775 in 2019.
01:40 AM BST
Candidates called to the stage
Candidates at the counting centre in Hamilton are being called to the stage to discuss the provisional result with the returning officer. The result will be announced shortly after that.
01:30 AM BST
‘Very close’ to a declaration
The result is running late but we are very close to a declaration, officials have said.
01:06 AM BST
Result expected at 1.15am
We are expecting the result to be announced in about 10 minutes...
12:59 AM BST
Sarwar: This is a ‘seismic’ moment
Arguing the by-election was a “turning point” for Scottish Labour, party leader Anas Sarwar said: “I think the clear message is that people are sick of two failing governments, two incompetent, divisive governments, and people are demanding change.
“And they can now see that the only vehicle for that change is the Scottish Labour Party and Scotland can lead the way in delivering a UK Labour Government.”
Pressed on what the result means for the general election and Sir Keir Starmer, he said: “I’ll just say this is I believe a seismic moment – I think it is a significant point in Scotland’s political history.
“And I think this is going to have huge reverberations as we head towards that next general election. But we need to wait for the official declaration.”
He said Labour was “really confident” of gaining a strong result, saying: “That can be a springboard going into the next election.
Although the turnout was low, he said it was higher than that in the Airdrie and Shotts by-election in 2021.
Labour sources believe they may have got 50 per cent of the popular vote which would mean a trouncing of the SNP.
12:50 AM BST
Labour leader arrives in Hamilton
The Labour candidate Michael Shanks, a school teacher, has arrived at the count with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
12:41 AM BST
Are independence voters abandoning the SNP?
Sir John Curtice has told BBC Scotland that in recent years the electorate has split along constitutional lines, with independence supporters backing the SNP and Unionist voters dividing three ways.
However, he said some independence supporters have now stopped backing the SNP.
There are also widespread reports of a collapse in the Scottish Tory vote and rumours they may have lost their deposit.
Conservative insiders blamed tactical voting by Tory supporters for Labour to give the SNP a bloody nose and insisted the result would not be “representative” of how the party was performing across Scotland.
The Tories claimed 15 per cent of the vote here in 2019 and 19.5 per cent in 2017.
12:23 AM BST
SNP candidate arrives at the count
The SNP candidate Katy Loudon has just arrived at the count to a smattering of applause.
However, it appears almost certain now that she has lost.
Party insiders said the turnout would have been lowered by the extremely wet weather on polling day.
12:14 AM BST
Turnout plunges nearly 30pc
The turnout in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election was 37.19pc, with a total of 30,531 votes cast.
That is a long way down from 66.48pc at the general election in 2019, when 53,794 valid votes were cast.
12:13 AM BST
What to watch out for tonight
Here are some benchmarks to look out for and what they could mean for next year’s general election:
A swing of 5 per cent from the SNP to Labour - what Labour needs to overturn the SNP’s 5,230 majority
A swing of between 5 and 7 per cent from the SNP to Labour - this would make Labour competitive in between 15 and 20 seats if replicated across Scotland in a general election
A swing of 10 per cent from the SNP to Labour - this would make Labour competitive in 24 seats if replicated across Scotland in a general election.
Sir John Curtice, the UK’s most eminent psephologist, has previously said: “If Labour picks up two dozen seats in Scotland, you can probably knock four points off the lead over the Conservatives that the Labour Party would need UK-wide in order to achieve an overall majority.”
12:09 AM BST
‘Very bad night’ ahead for the SNP
Labour are extremely confident they have won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election by a healthy margin - the first time they will ever have taken a seat off the SNP in a Westminster by-election.
Michael Shanks is expected to be confirmed as the victor, making him the second Scottish Labour MP, at around 1.30am.
Party insiders said the SNP had suffered a “very bad night” and Labour had managed to get their vote out, despite wet weather, thanks to a large number of boots on the ground.
In contrast, the SNP are downbeat and are conceding defeat, with insiders stating that many of their supporters stayed at home.
12:02 AM BST
Tonight we could learn a lot about Labour
Rutherglen and Hamilton West is seen as a key bellwether for Labour’s hopes of staging a major comeback in Scotland in next year’s general election, which would provide a major boost to Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of becoming Prime Minister.
It is also Humza Yousaf’s first major test at the ballot box as SNP leader after he succeeded Nicola Sturgeon but is being staged after voters in the seat sacked their disgraced nationalist MP, Margaret Ferrier, over a serious breach of Covid rules.
Labour is the clear favourite to win the by-election and a large majority would give Mr Yousaf a huge political headache ahead of the SNP conference in Aberdeen, which starts on Oct 15.
However, a relatively narrow victory over a crisis-hit and warring SNP would raise doubts over predictions that Labour could emerge as the largest party in Scotland in the general election.
Mr Sarwar has made repeated visits to the seat with Sir Keir Starmer and a series of senior Shadow Cabinet figures. Sir Keir is expected to travel there again on Friday if Michael Shanks, the party’s candidate, is victorious.
12:00 AM BST
Welcome to our live blog
Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
We’ll be bringing you the result as soon as it is announced – plus all of the best analysis and reaction on what promises to be a dramatic night in Scottish politics.