Is a 'school choice' proposal possible in Texas in 2025? How $12M influenced GOP primaries

Major political donors, with the largest contributions coming from out of state, supporting Texas GOP primary candidates friendly to "school choice" proposals, or voucher programs, vastly outspent those donating to incumbents who oppose such proposals in 20 key Texas House races, according to an American-Statesman analysis of campaign finance data.

Gov. Greg Abbott, who has spent more than a year advocating for a program to use public money to pay for private schooling, and the American Federation for Children, a Dallas-based school choice advocacy group, cumulatively spent about $9.5 million in 20 House races since Jan. 1, campaign finance data show. Meanwhile, a political action committee funded by Charles Butt — chairman of giant grocery chain H-E-B and a top funder of Texas public education issues — spent about $2.6 million to defend incumbents who are against school vouchers.

The outpouring of cash in these races is Abbott’s follow-through on his promise to go to political war with members of his own party who opposed school vouchers during the 2023 legislative session. Abbott's influence and financing dealt a shattering political blow to 10 GOP House incumbents who were either booted from office by primary challengers earlier this month or sent into runoff elections in May.

Abbott's ultimate success in setting up a House in which school choice could pass in 2025 won’t be certain until after the May runoffs and November general elections, but the primary results showed money matters in politics.

At a public address Wednesday at the conservative think tank Texas Public Policy Foundation's annual summit, Abbott touted his backing of pro-school choice candidates in the primaries and said he counts 74 Republican votes in the 150-member House in support of such a proposal. He encouraged the policy foundation members to vote for school choice advocates in the May 28 runoffs to ensure the program makes it across the finish line next year.

"This is not a time for you to sit on the sidelines and applaud the success that you've achieved," Abbott said. "This is a time when all of us must come together."

School choice proponents say the program could give students in failing schools an alternative to private education, but opponents, including Democratic and rural Republican House members, worry such proposals would drain already cash-strapped Texas public schools of needed state money.

The money spent

Abbott and the AFC Victory Fund, the American Federation for Children’s PAC, spent more than $500,000 on each of nine key Texas House races, according to campaign finance data. In total, the fund spent $4.4 million on House races.

Of those nine races, pro-voucher candidates prevailed in four, incumbents opposed to school choice maintained their seats in two, and three races are headed for runoffs.

The Charles Butt Public Education PAC, which backed anti-voucher candidates, comparatively spent far less defending incumbents.

In the District 121 race in which Marc LaHood successfully unseated Rep. Steve Allison, R-San Antonio, Abbott and the AFC fund spent $1.05 million, compared with $340,609 from the Charles Butt PAC.

In District 18, Janis Holt unseated Rep. Ernest Bailes, R-Shepherd. Abbott and AFC spent $1.08 million on that race, compared with $336,561 from the Charles Butt PAC, which did not return a Statesman request for comment.

While other groups that opposed vouchers, such as the Texas State Teachers Association, donated some money in the races, the Charles Butt PAC was the most significant and substantial source of funding from a group clearly against school choice proposals.

Abbott's battle for school choice in Texas

For almost two years, Abbott has vowed to bring school vouchers to Texas. In November, at the conclusion of a bitter 2023 legislative year, 21 House Republicans joined with Democratic members to effectively kill a bill that included a comprehensive school voucher program.

“You see it in the corporate world,” Abbott said at the Texas Public Policy Summit. “You see it in the athletic world. You see it in every sphere that when you see competition, you see better results, and that same concept applies in the education sphere.”

The AFC fund got involved in the Texas elections to stand with parents who support school vouchers, said Nathan Cunneen, director of strategic analysis for the federation.

“It's still too early to know exactly what our whip count will be in January, but one thing is clear: Texas will now have its best opportunity to pass universal school choice — which would be the largest day-one school choice program in history,” Cunneen said.

Almost all of the $9.5 million Abbott and the AFC Victory Fund spent came from Philadelphia billionaire Jeffrey Yass, who is a vocal proponent of school vouchers.

Yass donated $6 million to Abbott and an additional $3.5 million to the AFC Victory Fund, according to campaign finance records.

'Crazy money'

It’s clear from the GOP primary races' results that money matters in politics, said Jon Taylor, a University of Texas at San Antonio political science professor. The resources in these House races was “crazy money,” he said.

“It begs the question about the power of money,” Taylor said. “What is it doing to our state's policy and politics that large donors can have such an impact on legislative races and therefore on the political future?”

That’s also astounding given the low turnout in primary races, he said.

In the District 121 race for example — in which LaHood unseated Allison — 22,062 people voted, which meant the three donors (Abbott, AFC and Butt) collectively spent more than $63 per vote.

There does come a point of diminishing returns for election spending, but it appears that hasn’t been hit yet, said Brian William Smith, a St. Edward’s University political science professor.

Those who oppose school vouchers might still have more to give for the November elections when Republicans face Democrats, who are more typically anti-voucher, Smith said.

“You would rather have that money go to your allies,” he said. “We'll see the money come out in the general elections.”

While there are still several rounds of elections before the 2025 Texas legislative session kicks off in January, it’s clear from the primaries that out-of-state money can make a difference, Taylor said.

“There is nothing stopping you from dropping a lot of money in our state,” he said.

Early voting for the primary runoffs begins May 20. Election day is May 28.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: School choice in Texas? GOP primaries flushed with money, influence