Scott Walker said college voters’ top issue is the economy, not abortion. Is he right?
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, presidential campaigns are seizing on two top issues on voters’ minds: abortion and the economy.
Democrats argue they will protect reproductive rights from Republican interference, while Republicans blame “Bidenomics” for the lingering effects of inflation.
Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker took stock of those issues in a Jan. 21, 2024 interview on WISN-TV’s Sunday morning show, “UPFRONT.”
Walker was asked about Vice President Kamala Harris’ then-upcoming visit to Waukesha County on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade, and if abortion is still a losing issue for Republicans ahead of the general election.
He responded that Democrats need to find an issue that “connects with the everyday concerns” of voters, rather than running on abortion.
“The everyday concerns of Americans are the economy — even young people that we work with at Young America's Foundation, our polling shows nationwide, their top issue for college students is the economy,” Walker said.
Walker is now the president of Young America’s Foundation, a group that aims to mobilize young conservatives, particularly on college campuses.
His claim caught our attention, especially because turnout for the most recent statewide election in Wisconsin was dominated by liberal, college-age voters who were motivated by abortion.
Is Walker right that the top issue for college students is the economy?
What did YAF’s poll find, and how reliable is it? How does it compare to other nationwide polls of young voters? Let’s take a look at the group’s poll and others on the topic.
First, let’s check what Young America’s Foundation asked young voters and how they responded.
Michael McGonigle, the group’s director of public relations, directed PolitiFact Wisconsin to the poll highlights and the data.
The poll was commissioned by the group and conducted in July 2023 by Echelon Insights, a polling firm that mostly works for Republican or conservative organizations.
The firm polled 840 high schoolers (ages 15-20) and 812 college students (ages 15-24).
The poll asked participants to select up to three of eleven issues, in randomized order, that they were most concerned about.
The leading answer was the economy: 38% of college students and 37% of high schoolers said that was a top issue for them.
School safety was next, though that issue was higher ranked among high schoolers, at 45%, than college students, at 29%. Then came gun policies, education, the environment and climate change.
Sixth on the list was abortion: that was a top issue for 15% of high schoolers and 27% of college students.
So the heart of Walker’s claim appears correct — the group’s polling showed the economy was the top issue among college voters.
Poll was conducted by reputable firm, most questions were not slanted
Now, let’s take a closer look at the survey to check its credibility.
To do this, PolitiFact Wisconsin asked Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, to review the poll.
Franklin said Echelon Insights is a “well-respected pollster.” While a couple questions were framed in a way to elicit a certain answer, he said the wordings in general were straightforward.
“I expected to see a much more slanted survey, because interest groups normally do that. They ask questions in a way that benefit their group,” Franklin said. “So I was pretty struck by what I took to be a pretty even-handed set of questions.”
Franklin said recruiting participants through online panels is now the norm in polling, and their method of reaching high schoolers was smart. And, the demographic makeup of respondents was in line with what he expected.
The participants also had a range of partisanship. Among college participants, 53% were Democratic or Democratic-leaning, 26% Republican or Republican-leaning, and 21% considered themselves independents.
More high schoolers were unsure of their party affiliation, which Franklin said fits with research about when young people develop political awareness.
Finally, Franklin said the poll’s finding is common in other surveys, and voters saying they’re worried about the economy is “almost a default answer.”
“The point about abortion being considerably less (important) than the economy, that's true in every survey of adults I've ever seen. Doesn’t mean it’s not important, but it's not the most important issue for a big chunk of the public,” he said.
Based on Franklin’s evaluation, it looks like we can trust YAF’s poll.
Other polls show economy is top concern of young voters, more so than abortion
Now: Does YAF’s finding that the economy is the top issue for college-age voters match up with other polls?
First, let’s start with the close-to-home Marquette Law School Poll. The poll most recently asked Wisconsin voters to rate their top concerns in fall 2022.
Among the youngest category of voters (ages 19-29), 60% said they were very concerned about inflation and higher prices, and 40% said they were somewhat concerned. Inflation was the top issue in that poll.
Now, comparing that to abortion: For the same age group in that poll, 62% were very concerned, 26% somewhat concerned, 4% not too concerned and 8% not at all concerned about abortion policy.
So, it’s not exactly the same question format and age group as YAF’s poll. But it does show that the economy was an area of high concern among young voters. Then again, abortion was too.
Let’s check another poll: the Harvard Youth Poll, which surveys voters aged 18 to 29. Their most recent poll was conducted in fall 2023.
That poll asked young voters which national issue concerned them most — so, more similar to YAF’s wording.
Among all the issues, inflation and cost of living increases was highest, at 14%. The economy in general was the top concern of 12% of respondents.
In comparison, abortion was at 3%. Still, another question indicates abortion was important to young voters: 63% said they find it important to consider legal access to abortion when deciding which state to live in.
And let’s look at one more for good measure: the CIRCLE Pre-2024 Election Youth Survey, developed at Tufts University and conducted by the polling firm Ipsos. The poll surveyed voters aged 18 to 34 in fall 2023.
The cost of living and inflation was again the top concern of young voters: 53% ranked it as one of their top three issues. Expanding access to abortion sat at 19%.
Bottom line: The finding by Young America’s Foundation isn't an outlier. Other polls of young voters show the economy, inflation and rising costs of living are their top concerns, even more so than abortion.
Our ruling
In discussing the economy and abortion — two emerging issues in 2024 campaigns — former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said:
“The everyday concerns of Americans are the economy — even young people that we work with at Young America's Foundation, our polling shows nationwide, their top issue for college students is the economy.”
The economy was the top issue for college students that participated in the group’s poll. Wisconsin pollster Charles Franklin said the polling firm is reputable and the questions were overall even-handed.
And, other polls conducted by nonpartisan groups found the same thing: Inflation and the cost of living was the top concern among young voters.
We rate Walker’s claim True.
Sources
WISN-TV, 'UPFRONT' recap: Walker says New Hampshire is last stand for Haley, DeSantis on road to Milwaukee, Jan. 21, 2024
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Former Gov. Scott Walker to take the helm of conservative group, says he won't run for office in 2022, July 15, 2024
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Wisconsin college students voted in huge numbers for the 2023 spring election. What led to increase and will it continue?, April 13, 2023
Michael McGonigle, Young America’s Foundation director of public relations, email exchange, Jan. 25, 2024
Young America’s Foundation, NEW YAF POLL: Students Rally Behind Presidential Age Limits, Biden’s Gen Z Appeal Declines; Trump Should Debate, Aug. 13, 2023
Echelon Insights, Young America’s Foundation Survey, July 2023
New York Times, We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results., Sept. 20, 2016
Charles Franklin, email exchange and phone call, Jan. 29 and Jan. 30, 2024
Marquette Law School Poll, Detailed Results of the Marquette Law School Poll-Oct 24 – Nov 1, 2022
Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, Harvard IOP Youth Survey – Fall 2023
Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, Youth and the 2024 Election: Likely to Vote and Ready to Drive Action on Key Political Issues, Nov. 29, 2023
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Is Scott Walker right that college voters' top issue is the economy, not abortion?