Scottsdale mayor, council elections will go to runoffs. How will it tip the balance?

The battle between two factions for control of Scottsdale City Hall is far from settled after the July primary election, when neither side won enough seats outright to secure a City Council majority.

Three seats remain unclaimed, but the balance of power will now be determined by the outcome of just two races in the November runoff election.

The primary ticket gave Scottsdale voters a clear choice between status quo candidates and challengers seeking to take the city in a new direction. The latter group’s campaign centered around general opposition to many city initiatives, as well as frequent criticism of current leadership over spending, development and affordable housing.

More about the factions: Scottsdale City Council election 2024: What to know as 2 factions battle for control

In the mayor's race, status quo incumbent David Ortega led narrowly over Lisa Borowsky, the opposition block’s only mayoral contender. They are now locked in for the runoff because neither secured the 50% of total votes needed to win outright in the primary.

"My expectations were to win the primary and move on to November with my positive outlook for Scottsdale,” Ortega said. “(Having won outright in the primary) would be great. It would be ideal. (But) I have high expectations going into the November runoff … the distinctions between myself and Borowski will be (made) very clear.”

A similar dynamic played out in the campaigns for City Council, in which nine contenders were battling for three available seats.

Jan Dubauskas, a member of the oppositional slate, was the only candidate who appears to have received enough votes to avoid a runoff.

Status quo block incumbent Tammy Caputi and opposition slate challenger Adam Kwasman were the next highest vote getters.

They will appear on the November ballot along with two other status quo contenders: newcomer Maryann McAllen and incumbent Tom Durham, who placed fourth and fifth in the primary, respectively.

"I'm happy that I've got the votes to keep fighting it out until November," Durham told The Arizona Republic.

State of play in Scottsdale: what both factions have secured, need

The opposition group already has two representatives on council who aren’t on this year’s ballot and won’t face reelection until 2026: Councilmembers Kathy Littlefield and Barry Graham.

With Dubauskas’ outright victory in the primary, that means the opposition needs only one more candidate to win in November in order to secure a majority on the seven member City Council.

Their hopes lay with Kwasman in the council contest and Borowski for mayor.

The status quo block has just one representative who’s currently on council and won’t be up for reelection until 2026: Councilmember Solange Whitehead.

Arizona primary election: See who won races across the state

But the group has already won at least one of the two remaining City Council seats because Kwasman is the only opposition candidate left in the running. At this point, it’s just a matter of what status quo candidate fills that role in November.

That means after the primary opponents will are guaranteed three seats, status quo candidates will take two, and two others that are up for grabs.

In order for the status quo block to secure the majority in the runoff, it needs to win both the mayoral contest and the City Council seat that hasn’t fallen into one camp or the other.

What Scottdale voters can expect in November based on the primary results

There is no foolproof way to predict how November’s election will play out. Voter attitudes can shift dramatically in three months, turnout can change drastically and voter interest in down-ballot local races can be diminished during such a big general election year.

But the primary election results can give some insight into the advantages that either faction could have in the runoff’s two most consequential races.

Ortega narrowly lead Borowski in the mayoral contest, although neither secured a majority of the votes cast.

The third mayoral contender, former Councilmember Linda Milhaven, came in last place but received about a fifth of the total vote. She, like Ortega, was within the status quo block of candidates on this year’s primary ticket.

That similarity puts the incumbent mayor in a better position than Borowski to inherit Milhaven’s sizable chunk of voters in November, giving the status quo camp a leg up in that race. Ortega would have a commanding lead over Borowski in the runoff if he's able to maintain his primary election vote share, as well as absorb Milhaven's.

But the top-level primary vote count for the council race didn’t favor either faction: both slates of candidates controlled roughly half of the total vote, according to the results available on Friday afternoon.

Caputi was the highest vote getter who’s slated for a runoff, but the opposition only needs Kwasman to beat her, McAllen or Durham in order to gain control of City Hall.

Kwasman trounced the latter two status quo candidates on July 30 by securing thousands of votes more than either of them. The gap between him and the next highest vote-getter, McAllen, was also substantially larger than the gap between him and Caputi.

The opposition votes may also be more concentrated in Kwasman as the slate’s only remaining council candidates, potentially giving him an edge in the final council contest and the oppositional group an advantage in the overall battle for council majority.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Scottsdale elections will go to runoffs. How will it tip the balance?