Senate election polls: See where important races stand as 2024 decision day looms

WASHINGTON – Several new polls released Monday and over the weekend show Republicans with an edge in critical Senate races in Montana, Nebraska and Texas heading toward Election Day on Nov. 5, while Democrats have an advantage in Arizona and Wisconsin.

And two new polls from InsiderAdvantage in Pennsylvania and Michigan show Senate races there in a statistical tie.

The polls suggest Republicans still have an edge on retaking the upper chamber, which is currently controlled by Democrats.

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has consistently polled a few percentage points ahead of her opponent, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, in the seat left open by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. InsiderAdvantage's poll, conducted over the weekend, shows them tied within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The race in Pennsylvania has been tighter, with incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, typically polling around 1 percentage point above GOP candidate David McCormick. InsiderAdvantage's poll, also conducted over the weekend, shows them tied within a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

A poll from The Hill and Emerson College shows Montana GOP candidate Tim Sheehy ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester by 4 percentage points in the race that is likely to determine control of the U.S. Senate next year.

Sheehy has consistently polled ahead of Tester in Montana and the latest survey shows an increase of 2 percentage points since it last checked in with likely voters in August. The latest poll, conducted Oct. 23 to 25, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Incumbent Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska also remained ahead in polls against challengers in their respective states, according to a poll from the New York Times and Siena College. Cruz faces Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, while Fischer is up against independent candidate Dan Osborn.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to 26 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, putting Fischer's 2-point lead within the margin and Cruz's 4-point lead slightly outside of it.

Rep. Reuben Gallego, D-Ariz., remained ahead in polling against GOP candidate Kari Lake according to a poll from Trafalgar Group. Gallego's 4-point lead was slightly outside the margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points in the poll conduct Oct. 24 to 26.

And Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., polled ahead of GOP challenger Eric Hovde by 2 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to a poll released Monday from USA TODAY and Suffolk University.

The results are within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. It was conducted Oct. 20 to 23.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 Senate race polls: Ties in Pennsylvania and Michigan