Senate poll roundup: Democrats hold on in swing states, GOP strong in Florida, Texas

WASHINGTON – A wave of polling released Monday and over the weekend continue to show Republicans with an edge on retaking the U.S. Senate while Democrats retain an advantage in key battleground states.

The Cook Political Report has named Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the four toss-up Senate races. All these seats are currently held by Democrats.

Five new polls from Pennsylvania give Democratic Sen. Bob Casey a 1- to 5-point lead in the Keystone State, while one poll from The Hill and Emerson College indicates the race is tied with a +/- 3 percentage point margin of error. One conservative-leaning pollster, Trafalgar Group, gives GOP challenger David McCormick a 1-point lead with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Two new Michigan polls found the race between former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is tied. Four polls gave Slotkin a lead between 2 and 8 percentage points – including polls from The Hill and Emerson College and from The New York Times and Siena College, with margins of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points and 3.7 percentage points, respectively – while one gave Rogers a 1-point lead.

Four new polls from Wisconsin, including those from The Times and The Hill, give incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin a 1- to 6-point lead, while one poll indicates she is tied with GOP challenger Eric Hovde. One poll gives Hovde a 1-point lead.

And in Ohio – the toss-up state recognized as most likely to flip to Republicans – two new polls from The Hill and Morning Consult showed Sen. Sherrod Brown's opponent, Bernie Moreno, with a 3- and 1-point lead, respectively. The Hill poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Arizona and Nevada are expected to slightly favor Democrats, and new polls indicate that is still the case. In Nevada, three polls say Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen has a 2- to 9-point advantage over Republican candidate Sam Brown, while one from AtlasIntel has the race tied with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In Arizona, where Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego is running against former TV anchor Kari Lake, four new polls gave Gallego a 2- to 8-point advantage. Most are similar to The New York Times' poll showing a 5-point lead with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

To retake control of the chamber, Republicans only need to flip two seats. They've already got one in the bag: West Virginia, as Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring and a Republican is sure to win his spot.

Democrats are hoping they can make up for potential losses in Ohio and Montana by beating vulnerable Republicans in Florida and Texas.

But two new polls from Morning Consult found voters preferred incumbent Republican Sens. Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas by 3 percentage points each.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Senate poll roundup: Democrats hold on in swing states