September Set for 14% Import Bump as US Ports Prep for East Coast Strike
The possible port strike at the East and Gulf Coast ports on Oct. 1 seems to be a major culprit for a flood of imports into the U.S. throughout the summer.
U.S. ports handled 2.32 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of inbound cargo volume in July, a 21 percent jump on the year, and a record import total for the month, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates.
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August’s projected totals are supposed to surpass the month prior at 2.37 million TEUs, signaling even more hurry to get product in ahead of the Sept. 30 contract expiration. Imports that month would increase 20.9 percent year-over-year, reaching the highest level since the all-time imports record of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022.
September is forecast at 2.31 million TEUs, up 14 percent year over year.
“Import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “This has caused some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports. In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.”
Even accounting for a possible work stoppage, the Global Port Tracker still projects October imports to come in at 2.08 million TEUs, inching up 1.3 percent.
If projections hold up, 2024 will have seen a seven-month stretch of import levels at or above 2 million TEU, the longest since a 19-month stretch through September 2022.
Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, said “we need every port in the country working at full capacity” as retailers prepare for the holiday season.
“Many retailers have brought cargo in early and shifted to alternate ports as a precaution, but it is vital that labor and management at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports actually sit down at the negotiating table and bargain in good faith for a new contract so we can avoid a disruption of any kind when their contract expires,” Gold said. “A strike would be another blow to the supply chain as it continues to face challenges, and to the nation’s economy at a time when inflation is finally coming down and the Fed is poised to lower interest rates.”
Concerns about a strike at the 36 ports from Maine to Texas escalated last week when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) concluded its two-day wage scale meetings and laid out a strike mobilization plan that would be enacted if the union didn’t agree to a new master contract.
In a video shared publicly and during the meetings, ILA executive vice president said both parties were still “very far apart” on a deal. The union said in a statement Thursday that there is unanimous support to call for a strike.
The union’s employers, the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), said in their own post in response that it hopes the ILA will reopen dialogue and share current contract demands so “we can work together on a new deal.”
Although the USMX insisted that its retaining existing language from the current contract related to automation into the new deal, and providing “industry leading” wage increases, the maritime employers have not been able to get the ILA to sit down for a meeting since master contract talks were called off in June.
The union is reportedly demanding a 77 percent pay increase as part of a six-year deal.
Last week, the NRF renewed its call for both sides to come to an agreement before the contract expires, with president and CEO Matthew Shay saying a disruption “would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy.”
Maersk, a USMX member, said in a Tuesday advisory that it is ready to assist customers explore options to keep their supply chains moving “best as possible” via alternate routes, modalities or distribution schedules in the event of disruptions.
The holiday months will see less pronounced inbound cargo volume growth. In November, imports will increase up 1.6 percent to 1.92 million TEUs, while December TEUs inched up 0.9 percent.
That would bring 2024’s import totals to 24.98 million TEUs, up 12.3 percent from 2023. The first half of 2024 totaled 12.1 million TEU, up 14.8 percent over the same period last year.
Although the import numbers represent a big leap over the year prior, sales are not projected to escalate at similar levels. The NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales—excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail—will grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
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