'Shockwaves.' How a Supreme Court decision on Alabama could 'shake up' the 2024 election

WASHINGTON – An unexpected Supreme Court decision this week that Alabama likely diluted the power of African American voters appears likely to have a significant impact on other states and may wind up increasing the number of Democratic lawmakers that voters send to the House of Representatives.

In a 5-4 decision Thursday, the Supreme Court rejected Alabama’s argument that a “race blind” approach to drawing congressional districts was permitted under the Voting Rights Act. The map includes one district out of seven in which Black voters represent a majority, even though African Americans make up more than a quarter of the state’s population.

Similar redistricting lawsuits that are pending in Louisiana and Georgia could be affected by the court’s decision. Other experts say the decision could impact lawsuits in South Carolina, Texas, Florida and other states where the interplay between race, politics and redistricting has been fraught for decades.

The decision "has laid a foundation for fair map decisions" in states like Louisiana, Georgia, and Texas, Marina Jenkins, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee told supporters in an email on Friday. "By enforcing compliance with the VRA in Alabama, the Supreme Court is sending a clear message to other states where voters of color are being denied equal voting rights and equal representation."

Why it matters: Fallout from an important Supreme Court decision

• The Alabama litigation returns to a lower federal court – and state officials have vowed to continue defending the map – but the Supreme Court’s decision eviscerated many of the state’s arguments. Experts predict the state will have to draw a second district where African Americans represent a majority.

• David Wasserman, senior editor of the Cook Political Report, wrote this week  that the decision could “send shockwaves beyond Alabama” and “shake up the 2024 battle for the House.” Wasserman predicts the changes could force the creation of two to four new Democrat-friendly House districts.

• Citing the Supreme Court's decision, a group of Black voters and nonprofits in Louisiana that are challenging that state's maps on Friday asked a federal court to put their lawsuit back on track after it was delayed last summer. ??"The Supreme Court was right to take a stand against Alabama gerrymandering,” said Sarah Brannon with the Voting Rights Project at the American Civil Liberties Union. "Black voters in Louisiana deserve nothing less."

• Groups challenging new maps in Florida that eliminated a district represented since 2017 by Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, were also studying the decision. “We're very hopeful that what came out in Alabama will bode well for Florida,” Kathay Feng, vice president of programs for Common Cause, told the Tallahassee Democrat.

What the Supreme Court said about the Voting Rights Act

Alabama tried to argue its redistricting was race neutral – that it didn’t consider race as it carved up the state into seven districts. But a lower court ruled that the effect of that approach was that the power of Black voters was diluted and the court ordered that the maps to be redrawn. That decision was put on hold by the Supreme Court last year because of upcoming primary elections.

In his opinion Thursday, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that Alabama’s argument that mapmakers must be "entirely 'blind' to race has no footing in our" earlier decisions. Instead, a more nuanced approach is required, where states don’t consider race as a primary factor but don’t ignore it, either. "The line that we have drawn is between consciousness and predominance," Roberts wrote.

The case, Allen v. Milligan, was the latest to test the scope of the Voting Rights Act, the 1965 law intended to ensure African Americans are not discriminated against at the ballot box. The Supreme Court has weakened the reach of that landmark law in a series of recent decisions at a time when voting itself has become an increasingly partisan issue.

The court's decision, Legal Defense Fund senior counsel Deuel Ross said Friday, reaffirms the importance of the Voting Rights Act and means that voters of color "will have the reassurance that the existing minority opportunity districts will continue to exist and that, where necessary and proper, new opportunity districts can and must be drawn."

While it was considering the Alabama case, the Supreme Court had placed a hold on a lower court ruling in Louisiana allowing creation of a second majority-Black district. That’s now likely to be lifted. A federal judge last year also ruled that some of Georgia’s U.S. House and state legislative districts likely violated the Voting Rights Act, but he had allowed the districts to be used in the 2022 elections because it was too close to the election to redraw them.

Maps in all three states could have to be redrawn for the 2024 elections.

Contributing:  Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Supreme Court decision on Alabama voting could shake up 2024 election