Slotkin running ahead of the pack in race for Michigan's Democratic Senate nomination

Just over two months ahead of the Aug. 6 Democratic primary and less than a month before absentee ballots can be cast, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, of Holly, holds all the cards in the race for her party's nomination to replace U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

"It’s hers to lose," said David Dulio, a political science professor and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University in Rochester. "There is zero that has happened (in the race for the nomination) to make me think it’s anything but a Slotkin victory."

The few public opinion polls out there have shown her with a commanding lead over Detroit actor Hill Harper and Dearborn businessman Nasser Beydoun, who may not even make the ballot due to a problem with his nominating petition sheets. A recent Detroit Regional Chamber survey also found Slotkin with a 2-to-1 advantage in name recognition over either of them. And while some said she might struggle to line up support among Black voters in Detroit with Harper in the race, that hasn't seemed to be the case, as she has made dozens of community meetings in the city and banked endorsements from former Mayor Dave Bing, the Rev. Jim Holley and others.

And in terms of campaign cash, she's got scads of it, having amassed $16 million as of the last reporting period on March 30, some eight times that of Harper, her closest competitor.

It's always possible that she could make a misstep but it would be out of character for a candidate who, since first running for Congress in 2018, has routinely won tough races running ahead of her party's ticket. The three candidates were set to be part of a debate this week on Mackinac Island, but it got canceled, denying the other Democrats a chance to try to dent her progress ahead of absentee voting beginning June 27.

"As of right now, if nothing changes, it's Slotkin and (Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike) Rogers" in the November general election, said Ed Sarpolus, a pollster with Target Insyght in Lansing.

Slotkin's been the front-runner all along

Slotkin's position in the race is not surprising, given her electoral and political record.

She's been deemed the most bipartisan member of Michigan's congressional delegation by the independent Lugar Center in Washington and the delegation's most effective member in the last Congress by the Center for Effective Lawmaking, a joint effort of the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University.

Slotkin also enjoys the appearance of being a relatively moderate Democratic vote in a Congress riven by partisan politics, with a record of working for veterans, improving access to health care and displaying a no-nonsense voice on intelligence and military matters, having been a CIA analyst in Iraq and Afghanistan and an acting assistant secretary in the Department of Defense.

If the primary season runs true to form, she's likely to face Rogers, who has former President Donald Trump's endorsement, though he faces a more fractious GOP race that includes wealthy entrepreneur Sandy Pensler, of Grosse Pointe; former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, of Cascade Township, and Dr. Sherry O'Donnell, of west Michigan.

Slotkin looks to have an easier glidepath to the nomination.

While Slotkin almost always votes with her party, she's more independent-minded than most: She recently sided with Republicans and a handful of Democrats supporting legislation blocking non-citizens from voting in local elections in Washington, D.C. She has also taken a harder line on immigration than some in her party with huge numbers of immigrants crossing the southern border in recent years. "I don’t support anyone coming here through non-legal ports of entry," she recently told the Detroit Free Press editorial board. "I don’t support anyone coming here illegally."

And while she's a voice for protecting the environment and women's access to abortion and other reproductive rights, she acknowledged her background in national security "runs a little counter to type to the average Democrat." She claims to read every bill she votes on and has demonstrated she'll take risks to her career, such as voting twice to impeach Trump despite representing a pro-Trump district. In her first TV ad, she talked up the work she did for both Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic President Barack Obama. And she's not blind to the concerns voters have heading into this year's election.

"There's no doubt an angst and a cynicism about the top of the ticket, both (President Joe) Biden and (former President Donald) Trump."

Harper has characterized himself as less tied to politics-as-usual

Harper, who is Black, was expected to bring a touch of celebrity as well as diversity to the race, openly challenging Slotkin, who is white, in Detroit, Harper's adopted hometown where he owns a coffee shop. He nabbed endorsements from Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, Wayne County Commission Chair Alisha Bell and others and has been active in courting votes in the city.

He also has tried to present himself as a more progressive choice to Slotkin, mentioning U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, as someone he'd like to emulate. (Slotkin, when asked by the Free Press editorial board, mentioned the late U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.)

An entrepreneur and author who attended Harvard Law School with Obama and has starred in TV's "CSI: NY" and "The Good Doctor," Harper has leaned into an argument that Slotkin is too tied to existing political institutions — namely, the intelligence community and the Pentagon — and has failed to be adequately supportive of legislation favored by Black Michiganders. He also says he would better represent — and hire — those constituents.

"If you have worked in the government your entire life, I don’t begrudge anyone for that," he said. "But they see the world in a certain way."

He has also worked to draw distinctions between himself and Slotkin, saying he supports universal health care, whereas Slotkin has long favored a Medicare-like public option to compete with private insurers — not that either is likely to be enacted anytime soon. Harper, who has self-funded more than a third of the $2 million he had raised as of March 30, also has criticized Slotkin's prodigious fundraising, calling for campaign finance reform.

Harper is quick-witted, friendly and apt to turn a smart phrase, such as when he says the last thing he believes Michigan Democrats want "is someone from the CIA running against someone from the FBI to be the next senator," a reference to Slotkin's experience and Republican front-runner Rogers' past as an agent for the bureau.

Slotkin, however, isn't running from the past, but embracing it, saying her experience makes her more likely to take an "objective, serious deep-dive into an issue rather than just being caught up in the emotion."

Harper's hopes rest on primary turnout

Slotkin has also battled back against those earlier concerns about how well she could compete in Detroit. Michael Griffie, a Free Press columnist who called into question whether Slotkin had adequately fought for issues important to Black voters who make up the dominant voting bloc in Detroit, has since noted she has co-sponsored bills to study reparations and raise the minimum wage.

Griffie wrote that Slotkin "appears to understand that there will be no anointing from the Black community here in Michigan" but is working for the vote anyway.

Slotkin has also promoted an "opportunity agenda" she says will reduce economic barriers in urban areas. Asked about her efforts to reach out to Detroiters, she said, "I have to go and show up and show up and show up."

The Detroit vote, Harper knows, will be key to any chance he has to win the nomination.

"We have to turn out voters who have checked out of the process," Harper told the Free Press during an editorial board meeting recently.

But he's running out of time to do so. That same chamber survey that reported on Slotkin's name ID advantage indicated that the motivation to vote this year is lower — just over 8 on a scale of 1 to 10 — among those who lean Democratic or are independent than among Republicans (for whom it's over 9). That's the lowest for Democrats and independents polled by the chamber since before the 2016 presidential election in Michigan.

Among Black voters it's even lower, at 7.9.

Tensions over Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza introduced in race

Harper has also run into some avoidable setbacks, including when he initially filed a financial disclosure form that showed he had no sources of earned income, though he later corrected it.

As for Beydoun, the state Bureau of Elections staff said last week all of the nominating petition sheets he submitted included a post-office box as an address rather than a street or rural route address as required, meaning he may not make the ballot. The Michigan Board of State Canvassers is set to consider that Friday.

A businessman and restauranteur with a long history of civic engagement, including as chairman and executive director of the American Arab Chamber of Commerce, Beydoun's campaign has emphasized — as has Harper's — giving voice to the outrage in southeastern Michigan's Arab American and Muslim communities toward continued American support for Israel as it has attacked the Gaza Strip following Hamas' attacks on Israel last year. Both have argued for an immediate cease-fire.

That may have been seen as a potentially strong tactic against Slotkin, given that she's the only Jewish member of Michigan's congressional delegation. But Slotkin has argued for a negotiated cease-fire with the return of all hostages. She has said while she recognizes Israel's right to punish the perpetrators of the Oct. 7 attacks on its citizens, it must do so in a way that protects innocent Palestinian civilians.

"You can claim victory in a battle and still lose the war," she cautioned.

Beydoun's campaign, as of March 30, had raised just over $855,000, and as it stands now, it's difficult to see the path forward for a Democratic candidate who formerly was a Republican — who "lost faith" in that party after the second Iraq War — and who says he not only doesn't support Biden this year but considers him a war criminal.

"He's too old," Beydoun said of Biden, speaking recently to the Free Press editorial board. "You can tell he's in cognitive decline."

It's hard to imagine that going over terribly well with the 81% of voters who backed Biden as the party's nominee in February's presidential primary or that it wouldn't be seen as aiding Trump this fall. "That’s not where a majority of (Michigan's) Democratic voters are," Dulio said of Beydoun's criticism of Biden.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: As Democrats vie for US Senate nomination, Slotkin dominates field