Storm tracker: Hurricane Kirk could become 'large and formidable,' NHC says

Editor's Note: This story was published Wednesday morning. Click here to track the latest developments with Hurricane Kirk.

Although Hurricane Kirk is the only named storm now spinning far out in the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters continue to watch a disturbance closer to home in the Caribbean Sea for possible development next week.

Hurricane Kirk is "strengthening and forecast to grow larger," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, adding that "Kirk is expected to become a large and formidable major hurricane." However, all current forecast models show the system curving north and into the middle of the Atlantic, well away from the U.S. coast.

The hurricane center said Wednesday afternoon that Kirk was located about 1,330 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, with higher gusts, and is expected to move northwestward for the next few days.

"Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday," the NHC said in an advisory Wednesday morning.

Although Kirk will be turning north and staying over the open Atlantic, long-period swells from the large hurricane could reach all the way to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard – from the Mid-Atlantic into coastal areas of the Northeast – by early to middle of next week, meteorologist Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 in Miami, told USA TODAY Tuesday.

October hurricane forecast: Brace for the 'return of big hurricanes'

Hurricane Kirk path tracker

Hurricane Kirk spaghetti models

System could threaten Florida next week

The NHC also said Wednesday morning it is keeping tabs on a "broad trough of low pressure" that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters said environmental conditions "could support some gradual development of this system," and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico.

"Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system," the NHC said Wednesday morning.

"This really looks like a threat of heavy rain and possibly a wind and surge threat, depending on storm strength, for Florida later next week," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Tropical depression forms out in the Atlantic

Additionally, a system in the eastern tropical Atlantic strengthened into Tropical Depression Thirteen on Monday. the NHC said.

The depression was located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of Wednesday afternoon, and the hurricane center said environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system.

"Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight," the NHC said. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would get the name Leslie.

Atlantic storm tracker

Brace for 'return of big hurricanes' in October

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season entered its fifth month Tuesday, and experts are again taking stock of a deadly and puzzling season.

The year started with dire predictions of a hyperactive season, quickly followed by the explosive and record-breaking landfall of Beryl in early July. Then came an odd mismatch in Pacific and Atlantic activity a later mid-season lull.

But now, with Hurricane Helene's deadly and devastating rampage across the Southeast last week, any hope of a quiet hurricane season for the U.S. has been obliterated.

Unfortunately, there's still plenty of the season still to go, and "October is historically an active month, particularly in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. Southeast coast," said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane research scientist at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School.

"I would say that Helene doesn't really have any bearing on the rest of the season's forecast, but right now, large-scale conditions are highly conducive for tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Atlantic, and we're seeing storms taking advantage of these conditions," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. "We just released our latest two-week forecast, and we are calling for a very busy two weeks, due to Kirk, Invest 91L (the wave behind Kirk) and potentially a system in the Northwest Caribbean/Gulf."

Using the storm names that have been retired since 1953 as a proxy for landfalling storms that had great impact, September has the most retired names, with 43, McNoldy said. August and October are essentially tied at 21 and 20, and only seven storm names have been retired from November storms.

However, it's also worth noting that October and November together have more retired storm names than June, July and August combined, he said.  "So we must absolutely still be on alert for tropical cyclone threats in the remainder of hurricane season."

It's also important to remember that it doesn't take a strong hurricane to cause a lot of damage, McNoldy said.  "A slow-moving disorganized disturbance that maybe doesn't quite become a tropical storm can unleash feet of rain over an area and create terrible flash flooding," he said. "The rainfall threat from tropical systems has historically taken a back seat to the wind threat in people's minds, despite being deadlier."

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Kirk tracker: See projected path, spaghetti models