Hurricane Helene tracker: See projected path of major storm as Florida braces
A litany of tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday as Helene officially strengthened into a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The NHC said in its 10 a.m. CDT advisory Wednesday that Helene is currently located about 85 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph.
A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later Wednesday through Thursday, bringing the center of the storm across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening, according to the hurricane center.
After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday, the NHC said.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening, the NHC said, and although weakening is expected after landfall, the storm's fast forward speed is expected to bring "strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians."
Helene's aggressive forecast: Helene's explosive forecast one of the 'most aggressive' in hurricane history
Helene's forecast one of the 'most aggressive' in hurricane history
The forecast of rapid intensification of Helene from a potential tropical cyclone to a Category 3 hurricane appears to be the fastest progression ever predicted for a depression by the National Hurricane Center.
“They had never forecast a major hurricane within 60 hours for a disturbance below tropical storm level,” Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer for DTN Weather told USA TODAY Tuesday, based on a computer analysis of the center’s historical forecast data. "The entire forecast is also basically faster than has ever been seen for 36 hours and 48 hours from a tropical depression.”
The National Hurricane Center didn't have that stat at the ready Tuesday as they were focused on operational forecasting for Helene, now a tropical storm, but "it's either the highest or one of the highest," said John Cangialosi, one of the center's senior hurricane specialists.
The forecast for a "70-knot increase in 72 hours on Monday was among the most aggressive forecasts" for a potential tropical cyclone, Cangialosi said.
"It's an aggressive forecast for good reason," he said. "We're trying to get ahead of the possible rapid intensification before it gets to Florida."
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Watches and warnings in effect for Florida
Here is a look at the watches and warnings in effect in Florida.
Hurricane Helene tracker
Hurricane Helene spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane Helene livestream
Watch live as Hurricane Helene heads north past Mexico's Gulf Coast.
NHC tracking two other tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean
The hurricane center also said Wednesday morning it is tracking two other tropical waves in the Atlantic, one of which could become a tropical depression in the coming days.
The disturbance is currently located west of the Cabo Verde Islands and continues to produce "disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity," according to the NHC.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of the system, and a "tropical depression is likely to form in a few days" as the wave moves westward to north-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said. The system has an 80 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The second wave is currently described as a "non-tropical area of low pressure" located several hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda.
According to the hurricane center, earlier satellite-wind data indicted the system was producing winds up to storm-force, and environmental conditions "could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next several days" as the system moves eastward, remaining over the open waters of the central Subtropical Atlantic.
The NHC gives this system a 20 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
Atlantic storm tracker
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Helene tracker: Updated path on where storm is headed