Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Sara forms in Caribbean

Editor's note: Follow along here for the latest about Sara on Friday, Nov. 15.

A weather system growing more powerful over the central Caribbean was designated Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday, becoming the 18th named storm of what has been a brutal hurricane season for Florida and the Southeast.

What began as a tropical rainstorm early this week was upgrade to Tropical Depression 19 early Thursday. AccuWeather forecasters say rapid strengthening seems unlikely, but that if Sara were to remain offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras for a couple of days it could reach hurricane intensity. That region could see "potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides," the National Hurricane Center warned.

On Thursday afternoon, the hurricane center said Sara is unlikely to survive its trip along Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The official forecast now calls for the storm to dissipate by Tuesday.

Relatively minor wind shear and high water temperatures could aid the strengthening process, AccuWeather said. If the storm remains strong as it passes over Central America and southeastern Mexico, Sara could track into the Gulf of Mexico and turn toward Florida next week, AccuWeather said.

More: Some hurricane models show Sara could hit Florida. Here's what forecasters say.

"Should the (storm) become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

November hurricanes are unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously affected the U.S. or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records.

Sara could add to the damage already wrought this year from 11 hurricanes ? five of them considered "major" storms after reaching Category 3 strength or more. The most severe, Helene and Milton, combined for a damage totals that could approach $100 billion.

As of Thursday morning, the system was located about 225 miles east-southeast of Guanaja, one of the Bay Islands of Honduras in the Caribbean Sea. The hurricane center said the depression is moving toward the west, and this motion should continue through Thursday, taking it across the western Caribbean Sea.

"The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend," NHC forecasters said Thursday, with rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated storm totals around 30 inches, expected over northern Honduras.

The rest of Honduras, along with Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua could see rainfall totals between 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals around 15 inches, through early next week, according to the hurricane center.

Weather: Huge snow totals reported in West as another storm looms

Will Tropical Storm Sara impact Florida?

Some forecast models say the storm will hit wind speeds of more than 111 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm watches to Central America by this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already had five hurricane landfalls this hurricane season.

"Should the current tropical depression ramp up and strike as forecast, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said Thursday morning. "If so, that will surpass the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004."

The storm's interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather patterns will determine the system's ultimate intensity and destination. Because the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average forecast track uncertainty is larger than normal, the hurricane center stated.

Tropical Storm Sara path tracker

Tropical Storm Sara spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: See path, models of what may become Hurricane Sara