Stormy weather may complicate homeless population count in metro Phoenix

Getting an accurate accounting of Maricopa County’s homeless population can already be a moving target, and this week’s rains are likely to play a role in how many get tallied for the annual point-in-time count.

As storm conditions persisted in the Valley on Tuesday morning, unsheltered individuals sought cover, explained Amy St. Peter, deputy executive director for the Maricopa Association of Governments.

For the hundreds of volunteers who took to the streets early in the morning to tally the number of people experiencing homelessness, it meant finding many who already try to stay hidden from the public eye, said Richard Crews, director of programs for Key Campus, a collection of nonprofits that provide homeless services.

“I think (the rain) makes it more difficult to count because you have to look for people,” he said. “That’s the challenge with the PIT count, you’re looking for people, a population, who know how to hide.”

Several volunteers and board members from Key Campus, formerly known as Human Resources Campus, participated in the count, Crews said. What they noticed, compared with last year, was that while there were fewer people out, there were concentrated pockets of homeless individuals, about 20 to 30 in a group.

Those participating in the count downtown had an easier time finding homeless individuals, Crews said, while those in rural areas searched the “sideways and byways.”

“Whether you’re looking underneath the washes, looking down alleyways, the canals, you have to find people,” he said. “It’s really a giant game of hide-and-seek.”

Though it’s too soon to know how the storm will impact this year’s count, the Maricopa Association of Governments, which coordinates the annual survey, is expecting to see a decrease in the number of unsheltered individuals, St. Peter said.

“It's one moment in time, it reflects the numbers and the dispersion of people experiencing homelessness today," she said, emphasizing that the count represents a single-day snapshot. "And today it’s raining, so people are more likely to be out of sight and they're trying to take cover."

“So, we anticipate that this year, that the numbers this year may show a decrease,” she continued of the annual tally that gets reported to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. “But one, we won't know until we verify the data, and two, the decrease could be impacted by the rain.”

When it comes to keeping track of the area’s homeless, the point-in-time count is just one indicator of how many people are unsheltered.

“It’s a good source of data,” St. Peter said. “It's not the only one.”

Typically, the county looks at other data sources such as information from homeless outreach teams, as well as the Homeless Management Information System, a computer database used to track those who engage with homeless services like shelters and service providers.

“We use all of that to create a more comprehensive picture of homelessness, that can account for changes like the weather, and it can help us to better understand the ongoing dynamics of homelessness,” St. Peter said.

During the annual count, volunteer teams of three to four people will fan out across the region to find people experiencing homelessness, and then count them by recording data into an app, St. Peter explained.

When possible, the teams will interview the individual to learn, among other things, how long they have been homeless and what contributed to their homelessness.

“It’s always really beneficial when we can collect that data,” she said. “That's really important to help develop responsive start strategies and design new interventions that are going to be successful in reducing homelessness.”

The count for HUD is useful because it happens every year at the same time, giving governments and nonprofits useful data to look back at, Crews said. He stressed, however, that it’s “not the gospel.”

When a city or county sees the number of homeless people in their region decrease one year compared with the year prior, “it just means fewer people were counted this year, it doesn’t mean there’s fewer people,” Crews said.

Tuesday’s count comes nearly three months since the removal of Phoenix’s largest homeless encampment, referred to as “The Zone.”

When asked about how the removal of the encampment will impact the latest counting of the homeless by volunteers, St. Peter mentioned that a majority of those who were living there are currently in housing.

“I think that benefits them and it benefits the community in general,” St. Peter said.

Providing help: Glendale to shelter, support homeless veterans through county partnership. Here's how

Of the 590 people who accepted shelter services during the encampment’s closure, 68% of them continued to receive services in a shelter, or treatment facility, or were housed, as of the end of November, the Phoenix Office of Homeless Solutions announced last month.

The encampment’s closure was a monthslong approach the city took, focusing one block at a time, the city said. Ahead of each block’s removal, the city said each person encountered was offered indoor shelter. In total, 718 people were offered services, with 590 of them accepting.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Stormy weather may complicate homeless population count in Phoenix