Swing state, no more. Moderate Democrats have already turned Arizona blue

The reputation was red. The prediction was purple. But Arizona is a blue state.

All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs and Adrian Fontes have made them something of a Moirae that portend the Fates of Arizona politics.

There was a rugged ol’ white guy who’s big on the military and pragmatic about priorities. There was a steady white woman who drew centrist support from the party of opposition. And there was an ambitious Latino, hellbent on making sure everybody gets an opportunity if they play by the rules.

And they’re all moderate Democrats, just like the Arizona electorate is and will be in the generations to come.

People keep moving here from blue states

The state has been growing exponentially over the last 20 years with newcomers pouring in from liberal enclaves in California and Washington state, according to state-to-state migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

They’re being lured by jobs and tax breaks.

The Greater Phoenix Economic Council has reported that big corporations have relocated key parts of their operations (often known as corporate “nerve centers”) to the state in recent years.

And outgoing Gov. Doug Ducey staked much of his legacy and reputation on winning support for the state’s new 2.5% flat-tax rate, designed to lure tech sector entrepreneurs.

The newcomers have the look and feel of liberal elites, a notion bolstered by the reality that Maricopa County is regularly among the national leaders in annual population growth, and cities like Phoenix and Tempe are Democratic strongholds.

The state, again according to Census data, is also more ethnically diverse than it’s been historically, prompting Republican strategists to resort to tricks like election denial and voter ID laws designed to make voting more difficult to limit turnout.

Trumpublicanism doesn't win in Arizona

Azure Arizona isn’t a new phenomenon.

After the 2020 election, when the state went for Joe Biden, Arizona had a Democrat-led congressional delegation, which included a pair of senators.

And in the first big election since, Donald Trump continued to be a liability.

Kari Lake, Blake Masters and Mark Finchem all lost, despite blessing from the reigning Don(ald) of conservative politics.

Letters to the editor: No, really, it's OK to say it: Arizona is a blue state

To be clear, it wasn’t a clean sweep. Republicans are claiming a 4-3 victory in U.S. House races, for example, though two of those contests are separated by only a few thousand votes each.

Conservatives could heed the last two election cycles as a wake-up call. Giving Trump politics yet another try could knock Arizona out of the national headlines as a swing state.

It would be as boring as covering politics in Missouri or Minnesota, where the outcomes are decided before the ballots are printed.

GOP may still win locally, but not for long

Trumpublicanism hasn’t worked in Arizona since 2016.

And based on what we know of the state’s population growth demographics, I wouldn’t expect his politics to play well here moving forward.

The red reputation only pops up in state and local politics, at this point. I expect that to diminish as the state’s new voters become more engaged after wading into the big races.

The prediction was purple, which mostly held up, according to the results.

But if you really look at what’s been happening here in terms of population growth and recent voting trends, it becomes clear: Arizona is a blue state.

Reach Moore at [email protected] or 602-444-2236. Follow him on Instagram and Twitter @SayingMoore.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona is a politically blue state, despite its red reputation