Swing state polls have changed; who does Pa think is winning the election?
Election Day is just five days away and all of the swing states have swayed, according to the polls and odds.
Pennsylvania has been teetering, but currently has former president Donald Trump in the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the polls but the other swing states are not so close any more.
The last two months worth of national polls have shown Harris in the lead, but it has shrunk week to week as Trump has been gaining ground and taken the lead in most of the seven crucial swing states, now likely to determine the race.
Although most states consistently vote blue or red such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, some lean differently in every election. These battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are swinging so close that it can really go either way.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both Trump and Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.
Here is what the polls, odds say today — about each of the swing states compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the swing states' polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.4%, Harris 48.1% to Trump's 46.7%; Pennsylvania has Trump leading by +0.4%; Arizona has Trump leading by +2.2%; Georgia has Trump leading by +1.8%; Michigan has Harris leading by +1.0%; Nevada has Harris leading by +0.1%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +1.1%; and Wisconsin has Harris leading by +0.8%. Trump has taken the lead on 4 out of 7 swing states since last week's polls results.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.9% over Trump while Pennsylvania shows Trump leading by 0.6%; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.8%; Georgia has Trump leading by 2.0%; Michigan has Harris leading by 1.8%; Nevada has Trump leading by 0.4%; North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.3%, and Wisconsin has Trump leading by 0.7%. Trump has taken the lead in 6 out of the 7 swing states since last week's polls results.
realclearpolling shows the national betting odds have shifted to Trump's favor by a growing spread of +0.8 over Harris, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.8; Arizona shows odds +2.5 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.4 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.5 in favor of Harris; Nevada shows +0.5 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.0 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.2 in favor of Trump. Trump maintains a marginal lead in 6 out of seven swing states and the national odds compared to last week's polls results.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 65.3% over Harris 34.8%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 61% over Harris's 41%. Arizona shows Trump favored 76% over Harris 25%. Georgia shows Trump favored 74% over Harris 27%. Michigan shows Harris favored 53% over Trump 48%. Nevada shows Trump favored 65% over Harris 36%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 72% over Harris 29%. Wisconsin shows Trump favored 54% over Harris 48%. All of the betting odds are in Trump's growing favor over Harris compared to last week's polls results.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were recorded Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, at 8:30 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning? What polls show now in Pennsylvania, swing states