Tammy Baldwin wins Wisconsin Senate race in 2024 election over Eric Hovde
Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin's streak lives on.
On a night when Republicans swept races around the country, Baldwin bucked the red tide by eking out a narrow win over GOP challenger Eric Hovde to secure a third term in the U.S. Senate.
“It is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” Baldwin said in a statement. “The people of Wisconsin have chosen someone who always puts Wisconsin first, someone who shows up, listens, and works with everyone to get the job done."
With 99% of the votes counted, Baldwin led Hovde by 49.4% to 48.5% — a margin of 28,958 votes — in a race that drew attention and big bucks from around the country. The Associated Press called the race for Baldwin on Wednesday afternoon.
Baldwin officials said the numbers were not final but that she has taken the lead and the margin is too large for Hovde to make up. The Democratic incumbent trailed her Republican challenger throughout the evening until Milwaukee released its absentee ballot results shortly before 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.
Hovde had yet to concede as of midday Wednesday.
About 2:15 a.m. Wednesday, Hovde sent his supporters home but not before he placed blame for the close contest on America First candidate Thomas Leager, who was recruited to run by a small group of Democrats posing as conservatives. Leager — a far-right, gun-rights advocate — received more than 28,717 votes by Wednesday afternoon. That number is 241 votes short of Baldwin's margin of victory.
"It's unfortunate if the Democrats wouldn't have put a plant, this probably would have been called some time ago," Hovde said. "But you know what? It is what it is."
In a post on X around 9:15 a.m. Wednesday, Hovde said he and his campaign were "watching the final precinct results come in" and would continue to monitor returns and "make sure that every vote is counted."
In Wisconsin, a candidate can demand a recount if the official tally shows the candidate losing by 1 percentage point or less. If a candidate were behind by less than a quarter of a point, the state would pay for the recount. If the candidate is behind by a quarter of a point to 1 point, the campaign would have to pay a few million dollars to cover the cost of the recount.
Baldwin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who was losing to former President Donald Trump by nearly 29,000 votes.
The bruising victory means Baldwin still has not lost a race in her 38 years in politics, as she has risen steadily from Dane County supervisor to federal lawmaker.
In her statement, Baldwin said Wisconsin voters had rejected the wealthy individuals and special interests who "want to come to our state, spread hate and division and buy their way into power."
"I am proud to head back to the Senate as we embrace our state motto, Forward, and keep fighting for the workers, farmers and families that make our state great," Baldwin said. "From the bottom of my heart, it is an honor to serve the people of Wisconsin.”
Baldwin will serve in the minority in the U.S. Senate after the Republicans flipped control of the upper house on Tuesday night.
Hovde, 60, was making his second bid for the U.S. Senate. He lost in a four-way Republican primary in 2012, finishing second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson.
Some Republicans were already suggesting that Hovde should consider running for another office.
"He's automatically the GOP frontrunner for governor if he wants to run," said one prominent Republican, pointing ahead to 2026.
The race, which did not feature a competitive primary, began as a subdued affair. But that changed in the two past months, with Baldwin accusing Hovde of unfairly attacking her personal life and Hovde claiming Baldwin was spreading lies about him in her ads. The two had fiery exchanges in their only debate last month.
In the summer, the Madison incumbent was ahead by 7.8 points over the GOP challenger in the Real Clear Politics average of all poll numbers. But that lead had dwindled to just 1 point in the most recent Marquette Law School Poll last week.
Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that helped Hovde cut into Baldwin's once sizeable lead. Among other things, voters from both parties have lined up behind their party's candidate as Election Day neared. In the past, Baldwin has been able to pick up a large chunk of Republican support. Hovde also took every chance he could to appear on TV and radio, especially on conservative stations, up through Tuesday.
Both candidates spent big bucks during the race
Baldwin raised a record $52.3 million during her six-year Senate term — a 40% jump from what she raised and spent in 2018. By comparison, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, spent $43.3 million in his 2022 re-election bid.
Currently ranked the 76th wealthiest senator, Baldwin put no money into her race. She has a maximum net worth of just more than $1 million, according to her annual financial filings.
By contrast, Hovde, a banking and real estate mogul, largely underwrote the cost of his campaign. Of the $29.5 million that he raised for the contest, at least $20 million came from his own pocket.
According to his financial disclosure form, Hovde has assets worth between $195.4 million and $564.5 million, much of it in Madison and Milwaukee real estate holdings, corporate securities and stock in Sunwest Bank, the Utah-based financial institution for which he is chairman and CEO.
On top of all that, outside groups spent more than $100 million blasting the two candidates.
Deluge of attack ads drove down Baldwin and Hovde's favorability ratings
Many of those TV ads have attacked Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a New York private wealth adviser. Hovde presented the relationship as a potential conflict of interest, with one ad proclaiming "Baldwin is in bed with Wall Street."
Baldwin and other Democrats said the TV spots were a crass attempt to highlight the fact that she is a lesbian. Baldwin is the country’s first openly gay senator.
Also, Hovde and Republican groups cut several commercials going after Baldwin on transgender issues, something Republicans have done across the country and in the presidential race.
Baldwin and Democrats, meanwhile, persistently cast Hovde as out-of-touch with Wisconsinites over his ties to California, where he owns a $7 million-dollar home in Laguna Beach. They also used many of Hovde’s past statements against him, including remarks that overweight people should pay more for health care, that nursing home residents shouldn't vote and that he understands Black culture because his foundation has done work in Africa.
Several of Baldwin’s ads ended with the question, “What is wrong with this guy?"
The ads had an impact, with both candidates being underwater in their favorability ratings, according to the latest Marquette poll.
The poll found Baldwin is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 50%, with 5% expressing no opinion. Hovde is viewed favorably by 36%, and unfavorably by 48%. About 15% of voters had no opinion of him.
Mary Spicuzza and Madeline Heim contributed to this article.
Contact Daniel Bice at (414) 313-6684 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @DanielBice or on Facebook at fb.me/daniel.bice.
This story has been updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Tammy Baldwin defeats Eric Hovde in Senate race