Tropical Storm Debby expected to become a hurricane before it reaches Big Bend Sunday
Tropical Storm Debby 11 p.m. Saturday update
Tropical Storm Debby is now expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night as it continues to strengthen as it makes its way through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and makes its way toward Florida's Big Bend, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured Tropical Storm Debby's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.
Tropical Storm Debby is now 50 miles west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas and 260 miles south-southwest of Tampa. It's traveling northwest at 14 mph.
Tropical Storm Debby 8 p.m. Saturday update
The Air Force Reserve and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane hunters are en route to investigate Tropical Storm Debby, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Squalls from Tropical Storm Debby are now spreading across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula, extending out 140 miles to the east of the center.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of Florida's Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Debby continues to make its way toward the Big Bend coast for a potential Monday morning landfall.
"As the tropical depression pulls away from Cuba and then moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, we expect it to gain strength and become a tropical storm. As this feature approaches the Big Bend of Florida early Monday, further intensification to a Category 1 hurricane can occur," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Tropical Storm Debby is now 100 miles west-southwest of Key West and 270 miles south of Tampa. It's traveling northwest at 14 mph, and maximum sustained winds have remained at 40 mph.
The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region.
Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12 to 24 hours, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core.
The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 knots at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States.
Beyond 72 hours, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough.
Will Tropical Strom Debby impact the Florida Panhandle?
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning, according to the NHC.
Swelling associated with this system may bring an increased risk of rip currents to Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches late this weekend and into early next week. No land impacts are expected, according to the National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Debby 5 p.m. Saturday update
Tropical Storm Debby has officially formed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, making it the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of Florida's Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Debby continues to make its way toward the Big Bend coast for a potential Monday morning landfall.
"As the tropical depression pulls away from Cuba and then moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, we expect it to gain strength and become a tropical storm. As this feature approaches the Big Bend of Florida early Monday, further intensification to a Category 1 hurricane can occur," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded his state of emergency Saturday morning, which now encompasses 61 of Florida's 67 counties.
Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded his state of emergency Saturday morning, which now encompasses 61 of Florida's 67 counties.
Tropical Storm Debby is now 160 miles west-southwest of Key West. It's traveling northwest at 15 mph, and maximum sustained winds have remained at 40 mph.
The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region.
Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12 to 24 hours, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core.
The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 knots at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 hours, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, according to the NHC
Previous paths for Tropical Depression Four put a potential landfall somewhere along the coast of Florida's Big Bend on Sunday, but the storm's path has since shifted. Now, the eye of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Debby later today will make landfall sometime between early Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
Tropical Depression Four is now 115 miles south-southwest of Key West. It's traveling west-northwest at 15 mph, and maximum sustained winds have remained at 35 mph. Tropical Depression Four will become Tropical Storm Debby if sustained winds reach 39 mph.
Where is Tropical Storm Debby?
Location: 50 miles west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas, 260 miles south-southwest of Tampa
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Movement: Northwest at 14 mph
Next advisory: 2 a.m. Aug. 4
Tropical Storm Debby path
Tropical Storm Debby could become a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches Florida coast
Recent satellite wind data and surface observations from the Florida Keys indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast.
AccuWeather believes that Tropical Storm Debby could strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches Florida's coast.
"As the tropical depression pulls away from Cuba and then moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, we expect it to gain strength and become a tropical storm. As this feature approaches the Big Bend of Florida early Monday, further intensification to a Category 1 hurricane can occur," DaSilva said.
Spaghetti models: Latest forecasts on where Tropical Storm Debby could make Florida landfall
Hurricane, tropical storm watches and warnings issued for Florida
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River
A storm surge warning is in effect for:
Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Potential impacts from Tropical Storm Debby
WINDS: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Yankeetown, Fl, to Aucilla River, FL...4-7ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Rainfall: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.
For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.
Tornadoes: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Key messages on what Florida can expect from tropical cyclone
1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.
3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Storm Debby expected to become hurricane before landfall
