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Tropical Storm Francine expected in the Gulf with impacts for Louisiana

Brandon Lashbrook
3 min read

BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — The tropics in the Atlantic are now bubbling with activity with three areas being watched for development. One tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic (Invest 92L) with another disturbance behind it in the Eastern Atlantic.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become Tropical Storm Francine by Monday as it moves northward eventually bringing impacts to Southeastern Texas and Louisiana by mid-week. The Greater Baton Rouge area will see some impacts as well.

The system will likely see some strengthening upon landfall which will bring a threat of high winds for a portion of the coast. A larger portion of the region will see rounds of heavy rain that reintroduce a flooding threat.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six

Invest 92L in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico is now tagged as Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Six. This means that while the system is not yet an official cyclone, it is expected to become one with land impacts within 48 hours and a forecast track can be drawn by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

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The official forecast from the NHC calls for a tropical storm to form (next name would be Francine) by Monday as the storm moves to the north just off of the Western Gulf Coast. Strengthening to a hurricane is forecasted before landfall over the Northwestern Gulf Coast by mid-week. Tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches will likely be issued for portions of the coast by Monday.

Invest 91L likely to bring heavy rain, impacts to Louisiana next week

Specific impacts will become clearer the closer we get and will be highly dependent on the exact track, size, and intensity of the storm. Generally, what we could expect would be bands of heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and surges, tropical-storm-force winds and an isolated tornado threat.

Conditions will likely deteriorate as we move into Wednesday through Thursday. Thankfully this system looks to move at a good pace and we could dry out by next weekend. Make sure to keep updated with the forecast daily as the picture of impacts becomes clearer.

Invest 92L

An area of low pressure exists over the Central Tropical Atlantic with showers and storms that are beginning to show some organization. The system will move slowly over the next few days with a favorable environment where a tropical depression is likely to form before eventually moving westwards.

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There is a medium chance (60%) for development over the next two days and a high chance (70%) over the next seven days.

Eastern Atlantic Disturbance

A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and storms. This wave may see some interaction with another wave likely emerging off of the African Coast where some gradual development for a tropical depression is possible by mid to late week.

There is a zero chance for development over the next two days and a medium chance (50%) over the next seven days.

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