Rafael upgraded to hurricane; could undergo 'rapid intensification.' Is US at risk?

Tropical Storm Rafael gained hurricane status Tuesday evening as it churned in the warm Caribbean waters on the way to the Cayman Islands and Cuba before heading for the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.

Rafael’s wind speeds had increased to 85 mph by 1 a.m. ET, and further intensification is expected before the hurricane makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday, the center stated in an update. The forecast calls for the hurricane to reach winds of 105 by the time it strikes Cuba. It's "not impossible" for Rafael to reach major hurricane status, with winds of more than 110 mph, wrote Philippe Papin, one of the center's hurricane specialists.

The hurricane is forecast to drop one to three inches of rain over the Florida Keys and U.S. officials are monitoring the storm for potential impacts to the Gulf Coast by early next week.

Rafael swiped west of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, where authorities opened four emergency shelters but reported no deaths or injuries despite the heavy rain.

Rafael is predicted to maintain a northwestward track across Cuba, then take a westward turn after it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday. By Saturday, it's expected to turn northward toward an eventual Gulf Coast landfall overnight Sunday or Monday morning.

With uncertainty lingering in the long-range forecast, the NHC said it's too early to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. By the end of the week, swells are expected to spread across much of the Gulf.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle around the weekend, according to AccuWeather, which said the highest probability of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving over the western coast of Mexico.

More: Tropical Storm Rafael tracker: Storm passing near Jamaica, Cayman Islands Tuesday

The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf are expected to weaken the hurricane by the time it draws close to the U.S. mainland. "This will not be a situation where there is a strengthening major hurricane that makes landfall in the U.S., but rather something less intense in terms of wind intensity," AccuWeather's forecast says.

The storm is likely to bring flooding rain, mudslides, damaging winds and dangerous surf and rip currents to western Cuba, still reeling from the collapse of its electrical grid and Hurricane Oscar.

The Cayman Islands and much of Cuba were under hurricane warnings Tuesday, according to the hurricane center. Tropical storm warnings were active across parts of Cuba and the Florida Keys.

Where is Hurricane Rafael?

Tropical Storm Rafael was centered 65 miles east-northeast of Grand Cayman and about 230 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba at 1 a,m., the hurricane center said. With winds of 80 mph, the storm was moving at 13 mph.

Meteorologists say Rafael could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide along western Cuba, as well as hurricane force winds and intense rainfall. Parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands were expected to see between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches.

Later on Wednesday, the storm will pass by the Florida Keys, bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain to the islands, according to the hurricane center, which added, "a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland."

Rafael is the seventh Atlantic hurricane to form since Sept. 25, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. He said that breaks the mark of six hurricanes over that period set in 1870, according to historical records. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. An average year sees 14 storms.

How will Rafael impact Florida?

For the Florida Peninsula, Rafael will make its closest approach late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing increased chances of rain to the state as it lashes the Florida Keys with strong winds. Ryan Truchelut, a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network, said Rafael is forecast to remain well southwest of the Keys.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle islands on Wednesday, according to the hurricane center. A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwestern Florida's mainland.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast U.S. during the middle to latter part of the week, the hurricane center said.

"The good news is that while Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is very little chance of the storm reaching land as a hurricane," Truchelut said.

– Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida

Cuba grapples with power grid collapse as Rafael approaches

Rafael's approach toward western Cuba comes as the nation tries to recover from blackouts and Hurricane Oscar, which coincided two weeks ago as the country struggles with food, fuel and medicine shortages.

Some 10 million people were without power for days as the hurricane inundated regions of the country with flooding rain. Outages still abound across Cuba weeks later.

Schools and public transportation services announced cancellations and pauses in service ahead of Rafael. Meanwhile, plans were underway to evacuate thousands of residents in vulnerable parts of the island country, especially areas where the ground remains saturated from Oscar's rain.

Residents of western Cuba said they were preparing for the worst.

"We are working together among neighbors ... taking in those who live in poorly built homes," Natacha Velazquez, whose house fronts the ocean in Baracoa just west of the capital, told Reuters on Monday evening. "But we are also worried for our lives."

Tropical Storm Rafael tracker

Contributing: Doyle Rice, Gabe Hauari and Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY; Reuters

(This story was updated to add new information.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Rafael becomes hurricane, expected to intensify on way to Cuba