Will Trump call for healing – or rub salt in wounds – in wake of rally shooting?

It will be the new must-have for every Donald Trump acolyte. The indelible image of the former US president, ear bloodied and fist raised as Secret Service agents try to rush him away from a would-be assassin’s bullets, has already been turned into a $35 T-shirt with a simple legend: “Fight! Fight! Fight!”

The words are taken from Trump’s entreaty as he was bundled off stage in the aftermath of the shooting which left one man dead at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. His supporters responded with chants of “USA! USA!” and by angrily turning on the media, pointing fingers of blame at journalists.

Related: Questions mount over shooter’s ability to access roof despite security presence

In an instant the 2024 presidential election, just 115 days away, and the future of America itself had been transformed. A polarised nation faces the threat of deepening political violence and hostility towards the press. In a country awash with guns, some feared that Saturday could mark the first shots in a second US civil war.

Trump, ever the showman, who said on social media he felt the bullet “ripping through” his skin, was hailed by his base as a fighter, martyr and messiah. The viral photograph of his defiance is being used to project the 78-year-old as a tower of strength in contrast to Biden, 81, whose weak debate performance led to calls from his own party to exit the race for the White House.

The political benefits were immediate. Billionaires Elon Musk and Bill Ackman threw their weight behind Trump. Jake Paul, a YouTube personality, tweeted: “If it isn’t apparent enough who God wants to win. When you try and kill God’s angels and saviors of the world it just makes them bigger.”

Trump’s campaign also seized on the opportunity to fuel the convicted criminal’s narrative of persecution, sending out a fundraising text message that said: “They’re not after me, they’re after you.”

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, told the Reuters news agency: “The attempted assassination creates sympathy for Trump. It also confirms the idea to voters that something is fundamentally wrong in this nation, which is an idea that drives support for him.”

The attack is likely to boost Trump’s appearances in Milwaukee this week at the Republican national convention as he accepts his party’s presidential nomination, fortifying the sense of grievance his supporters already feel toward the nation’s political elites.

Trump’s speech on Thursday night could be a critical turning point, a prime time television opportunity to call for unity and healing – or to sow division and rub salt in wounds. Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNN he is not optimistic, noting that Trump’s “initial reaction when he stood back up – and it was incredible powerful imagery that we’re going to see for months now – was fight, fight, fight. That’s his instinct.”

Bremmer added: “Every sinew of this man is he is going to fight against his enemies and yes, his enemy is the dead man, the 20-year-old that tried to assassinate him. But I think that Trump believes that his enemy is Joe Biden, his enemy are the members of the press, some of whom have been calling him Hitler, his enemy are people on the other side of the political spectrum that want to destroy him.”

The motivation of the gunman is not yet known. The suspect, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, was a registered Republican, according to state voter records. He previously made a $15 donation to a political action committee that raises money for left-leaning and Democratic politicians.

His assault came within the context of the biggest and most sustained increase in US political violence since the 1970s. Of 14 fatal political attacks since supporters of Trump stormed the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, in which the perpetrator or suspect had a clear partisan leaning, 13 were rightwing assailants. One was on the left.

Members of Congress have been targeted: US Capitol police opened 8,008 threat assessment cases in 2023 – an increase of more than 500 from the previous year. A recent PBS NewsHour/ NPR/ Marist opinion poll found that one in five adults believes that Americans may have to resort to violence to get their own country back on track.

Political leaders sought to douse the flames over the weekend. Biden, putting his campaign on pause, said such violence has no place in America and phoned his opponent, whom he referred to as “Donald” – a marked shift from the palpable rancour between the men at their first debate in Atlanta. Trump used social media to call for Americans to “stand United” and show their “True Character”.

And Republican Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told the NBC network’s Today show: “We’ve got to turn the rhetoric down. We’ve got to turn the temperature down in this country. We need leaders of all parties, on both sides, to call that out and make sure that happens so that we can go forward.”

But Trump has regularly used violent, degrading and even apocalyptic language with his followers, warning of a “bloodbath” if he is not elected and saying immigrants in the US illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country”. In the wake of the shooting, his advisers and allies flipped the script on Biden, suggesting that it was the demonisation of the Republican candidate that led to the assassination attempt.

JD Vance, an Ohio senator widely tipped to be named as Trump’s running mate at this week’s convention, posted on X: “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina posted a similar message, while Mike Collins, a Republican congressman from Georgia, tweeted: “The Republican District Attorney in Butler County, PA, should immediately file charges against Joseph R Biden for inciting an assassination.”

Chris LaCivita, the co-manager of Trump’s campaign, said on X that “for years and even today, leftist activists, Democrat donors and now even Joe Biden have made disgusting remarks and descriptions of shooting Donald Trump … it’s high time they be held accountable for it … the best way is through the ballot box.”

LaCivita was apparently referring to recent remarks by Biden made in the context of asking his supporters to focus on beating Trump rather than his own performance. “So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye,” said Biden, who has always condemned any political violence.

Some compared America to a tinderbox. With disinformation and conspiracy theories swirling on social media, the mood was very different from past national traumas such as the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan in 1981 and the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001.

Bremmer told CNN: “The response here needs to be like 9/11. It needs to be something where everyone comes together and says, this does not stand, we are all Americans together. I fear it’s going to be a lot more like January 6, where there will be a large number of people that will weaponise what just happened and we will continue to tribalise as a country and people won’t accept that the people on the other side of the aisle are Americans just like they are.”