Trump dispatches Vance to Arizona to counter ‘excited’ Democrats

When the chair of the Republican National Committee came to Arizona in early July, his mind was somewhere else. Donald Trump had a comfortable lead in Arizona polls and had just trounced Joe Biden in the first presidential debate of 2024.

“We are going to be here as often as it takes and we're really focusing on states like Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia. But we also have new states that are going on the map," RNC Chair Michael Whatley said July 2 at a Trump office opening in Casa Grande. “We've now started to engage in Minnesota and in Virginia and in New Hampshire. So we're playing offense all around the country.”

He didn’t know the presidential race was about to turn upside down.

Over the next three weeks, Trump would survive an assassination attempt, accept his party’s nomination and then be forced to recalibrate his entire campaign against a new Democratic opponent. And Democrats, who were all but writing off Arizona’s presidential election thanks to Biden’s anemic approval ratings, have an uncharacteristic pep in their step and say they are seeing a deluge of new donors.

“This is gonna be one of those kind of totally crazy, whac-a-mole elections. We don't know what's coming next. We really don't,” said Brian Murray, former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party. “A lot of times I feel like you can predict out and say, ‘This is how we expect things to happen.’ But with Trump, you really just can’t.”

The new dynamic is hardly a guarantee that presumptive nominee Vice President Kamala Harris could carry Arizona. Biden won here by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020, and Harris has her own challenges, especially when it comes to immigration. But the race certainly shows signs of being a closer contest than it was when Whatley came to open Trump’s campaign outpost and Democrats were in crisis over Biden’s bad poll numbers.

Trump’s campaign activity is ramping up in Arizona, too. The former president still has a much lighter footprint than the Biden and Harris campaigns in Arizona, but he is dispatching running mate JD Vance to Glendale for a rally this week and has opened two new campaign offices over the last several weeks.

Vance will take aim at Harris during his visit, rushing to define her as the new dynamics of the race take shape.

“People are really excited,” Arizona Democratic Party chair Yolanda Bejarano told reporters last week. “We are going to take advantage of the moment.”

Harris "probably has a better shot” in Arizona than Biden did, said Emerson College pollster Matt Taglia, but the vice president starts her campaign behind Trump. His latest Arizona poll showed Trump with 49% of support and Harris with 44%. Harris outperformed Biden by four percentage points: the president had 40% of support in the last Emerson poll before he dropped out of the race.

“We have seen some real shifts. That said, she's still behind in Arizona by about five points to Trump,” Taglia said.

Arizona is a crucial battleground state for both presidential campaigns. Biden won here by the most narrow margin of any state in 2020, and Republicans challenged the election results for years. Before he dropped out, Biden’s campaign said he would focus on the so-called Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to score an Electoral College victory.

The early days of the Harris campaign could indicate she sees Arizona as more central to a win, especially if she chooses Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., as her running mate. Kelly’s name on the ballot could force Republicans to spend more time and money in Arizona to protect their lead rather than spending that cash to flip blue states such as Minnesota.

"If they pick Kelly, what they're saying is they think they can win Arizona," Murray said. "Trump's got this place pretty well locked down. Their only chance would be to take Kelly, and I'm not certain that that's even enough for them to retake Arizona."

Kelly has a more optimistic view. Arizona is “100% winnable” for Democrats, he told reporters last week.

“I won it twice, President Biden won it in 2020, and Kamala Harris is going to win it here,” said Kelly, who Harris reportedly invited to submit vice presidential vetting materials as she weighs who to tap as her second in command.

A frequent criticism from Democrats is that Trump is not in Arizona enough and has a smaller ground game than the vice president, who took over Biden’s campaign operation. Trump has fewer offices than Harris (Trump has 8 and Harris has 12), and Democrats are using a $1.5 million transfer from the Democratic National Committee to grow their staff even larger.

"Rushing to open offices after months of overlooking the state won’t distract Arizonans from Trump’s Project 2025 agenda of banning abortion nationwide, raising costs on hardworking families and making our communities less safe. There is no question this is going to be a close race, but Team Harris isn’t taking a single voter for granted, and we have the energy, the momentum, and strong campaign infrastructure to win," Jacques Petit, Harris's Arizona communications director, said in a written statement.

Trump has been to Arizona once this election cycle for a large rally. Harris has taken six trips here during her time in the Biden administration, although she hasn’t visited since becoming the presumptive nominee last week. The Harris campaign has also held more events and news conferences to get its message out to voters.

The Harris campaign said more than 1,300 people engaged with the 67 events it hosted across Arizona over the weekend, which included canvasses, phone banks, watch parties and other gatherings. The campaign had 140 volunteers and supporters knock on 5,000 doors, and made nearly 5,500 calls across 152 phone banking sessions.

Although he’s spent less time in Arizona, Trump is giving the state some extra attention lately. The former president teamed up with a Border Patrol agent from Arizona to make the case against Harris on an immigration-focused press call, and his Arizona campaign recently held a “Trump Campaign's 100 Day Weekend of Action” event to mark the last 100 days before the election.

The pro-Trump super PAC Maga Inc. says it will spend $12 million a week on battleground state TV ads attacking Harris in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia through Labor Day.

“For months, our staff and volunteers have been recruiting thousands of volunteers to be poll watchers and poll workers, and activating thousands of Trump Force 47 captains, who are talking neighbor-to-neighbor about the key issues Arizonans care about," Halee Dobbins, the RNC Arizona state communications director, said in a written statement.

Trump’s backers in Arizona say the former president does not need to make a personal trip to Arizona any time soon.

“He’s a busy guy,” said Joe Arpaio, the former Maricopa County sheriff who Trump kissed on stage at a Phoenix rally in June.

The Democratic and Republican candidates are so different, said another Trump supporter, that few voters will be swayed ahead of November.

“Is it going to be a sales pitch that gets someone undecided over the line? I don't see it, so I'm not the least bit critical of the Trump campaign,” said Jim O’Connor, a Republican on the Arizona Corporation Commission who served as a Trump elector in 2016. “Just as one strong Republican influential voter, I don't need Trump to make another visit to Arizona if he can spend his time elsewhere.”

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: JD Vance to schedule more visits to battleground Arizona