Trump favored for handling inflation, immigration; Harris for abortion, Iowa Poll finds
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Majorities of likely Iowa voters say former President Donald Trump would do a better job handling inflation, immigration, foreign policy issues and housing prices than Vice President Kamala Harris.
But a majority say Harris would be better at handling abortion.
The results are part of a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that asked likely Iowa voters which of the two major-party candidates would do the best job handling seven issues.
Trump receives majority support for six of the seven issues, trailing Harris only on the issue of abortion.
Large majorities of Republican and Democratic likely voters back their own party’s candidate on each of the issues (85% or higher), while a majority of independent likely voters pick Trump for every issue but abortion.
In the race for president, Trump leads Harris among likely Iowa voters by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%. The Trump-Harris matchup represents a significant narrowing in the race since the last Iowa Poll in June, when Trump led 50% to 32% against President Joe Biden.
More: Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows
The poll of 811 Iowa adults, including 656 likely voters, was conducted Sept. 8-11 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for questions asked of all Iowans and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for questions asked of likely voters.
Donald Trump gets his highest marks on inflation in new Iowa Poll
Trump receives the most support from likely voters on inflation. Fifty-seven percent say Trump would do a better job than Harris at handling the issue, while 41% say Harris would do better.
One percent say neither would do a better job, and 2% are not sure.
Adam Thiry, a 37-year-old poll respondent from Ankeny, is among those who think Trump would do better with inflation. Thiry, a political independent who works in retail, bases that assessment on his experience during the Trump and Biden presidencies.
“My dollar went further during those four years under Trump versus what it is now,” he said. “That’s one of the bigger measurements, where that four-year period was better for me than this period.”
Joyce Marner, a 75-year-old Democrat from Solon, said she likes the Biden administration’s approach of investing in infrastructure and seeking to break up corporate monopolies. She is skeptical of Trump’s ability to handle inflation.
“Trump’s answer is always to just lower taxes on the rich and on businesses, and that has not worked,” she said. “And I assume by not working before empirically that it is not going to work again.”
More likely Iowa voters prefer Donald Trump over Kamala Harris to handle immigration
Trump talks about immigration frequently on the campaign trail, and 55% of likely Iowa voters say he’d do a better job than Harris handling the issue. Forty-four percent say Harris would do better.
One percent say neither would do a better job, and 1% are not sure.
Trump’s immigration policies were divisive during his presidency, including his efforts to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, separation of immigrant parents from their children and ban on immigrants from Muslim-majority countries.
If elected again, Trump has pledged to go further, promising “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country.”
Michelle Heston, a 53-year-old poll respondent who is a Republican and lives in rural Osceola, praised Trump’s record on immigration.
“When Trump was in office, he had started by changing laws about illegals coming into our country and actually started to build the wall against a lot of fighting back from the Democratic Party,” she said. “And he actually did what he said he was going to do, although he does not get the credit that he deserves for doing it.”
Harris has criticized Trump for urging members of Congress to kill a bipartisan immigration bill last spring that would have allowed a president to close the border if illegal crossings reach a certain level. The measure would also have raised the legal standard to seek asylum, authorized more money for asylum officers and for legal representation for minors, increased visas for legal immigration and streamlined pathways to citizenship for Afghan evacuees.
Harris has pledged to sign the bill if elected president.
Miles McClintock, a 33-year-old poll respondent from Bondurant, said Harris would do a better job handling immigration. The Democrat, who works as a caregiver in an assisted living facility, pointed to the failed bill as evidence that Trump isn’t serious about fixing immigration.
“Between the two candidates, one is trying to solve the problem, and one is trying to perpetuate one so that he can try to run on a problem,” he said.
Kamala Harris receives majority support from likely Iowa voters on one issue — abortion
A majority of likely voters choose Harris over Trump on one issue — abortion.
Fifty-three percent say Harris would do a better job handling the controversial issue than Trump, while 42% say Trump would do a better job.
Two percent say neither would do a better job, and 3% are not sure.
“She would reinstate Roe v. Wade, which is what many women in this country have grown up with and take it for granted,” said Marner, the Democrat from Solon.. “And now it seems to be going back to the ‘Handmaid’s Tale’ days where women have no control over their own bodies.”
Harris has attacked Trump for appointing three conservative U.S. Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 51-year-old case that established a nationwide right to abortion. She has pledged to sign a law restoring the abortion protections offered under Roe if she’s elected president.
Trump has bragged about his Supreme Court appointments but has said the issue of abortion should be decided by the states.
“I’m not in favor of an abortion ban,” Trump said during a Sept. 10 debate with Harris on ABC News. “But it doesn’t matter because this issue has now been taken over by the states.”
However, during the debate Trump twice declined to say whether he would veto a national abortion ban if elected president.
“I won’t have to,” he said, contending it would never pass the Senate.
Heston said she approves of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe. The Republican chose Trump as the best candidate to handle the issue.
“It should be state by state,” she said. “We should be able to choose what we want because that is what a democratic republic is.”
Elena Trueblood-Phillips, a 30-year-old poll respondent from Coralville, named Harris as the better candidate to handle abortion. She said she doesn’t support abortion but doesn’t believe it’s right to impose her view on others.
“I think that she understands that having that choice taken away as a woman isn’t right,” said Trueblood-Phillips, a stay-at-home mom and political independent who supports Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
‘He would call them out.’ Majority pick Trump to handle relations with China
A majority of likely voters say Trump would do a better job than Harris at handling several foreign policy issues.
Fifty-five percent say Trump would be better at handling relations with China, compared with 42% who pick Harris. Two percent say neither would do a better job, and 2% are not sure.
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Heston said Trump took a strong stance against China as president.
“He would call them out,” she said. “I don’t think Kamala Harris could call them out. I just don’t think she’s strong enough.”
But Thiry, the Ankeny independent, said he thinks Trump is often insulting toward China, which he doesn’t believe is helpful.
“He’s kind of always, in a way, making fun of them,” he said. “And I can’t imagine that would help you do anything relationship-wise with another country if you’re constantly insulting them.”
More Iowa likely voters prefer Trump to handle war between Russia and Ukraine
On the war between Russia and Ukraine, 55% pick Trump to do a better job and 42% name Harris. Another 2% choose neither candidate and 1% are not sure.
Heston said she doesn’t think Russia would have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president. She said she doesn’t support sending taxpayer money to aid Ukraine’s efforts.
“We’ve got people starving here. We have children starving. We have our veterans homeless,” she said. “No, absolutely not. We need to take care of America, because we need to be America first.”
Marner, the Democrat from Solon, said she believes Trump supports dictators. She pointed to a moment in the presidential debate when Trump declined to answer whether he wants Ukraine to win the war.
“He wouldn’t even say that he wanted Ukraine to be sovereign,” she said. “So, I very much fear that the power struggle in the world will tip towards totalitarianism with him. That is not what the Harris administration wants to do. They want to work with NATO.”
On the Israel-Hamas war, majority say they prefer Trump to Harris
On the war between Israel and Hamas, 54% say Trump would better handle the conflict, compared with 41% who choose Harris.
Four percent say neither of the candidates would do a better job, and 1% are not sure.
McClintock, the Bondurant Democrat, said the situation in Gaza is a humanitarian issue and both candidates are too quick to support Israel with military aid. He said neither one would do a good job handling the conflict.
“Both of their approaches take the human element out of the situation in Gaza,” he said, mentioning “our endless checks to the Israeli government for genocide.”
“Both candidates agree with the tactics we’ve used so far,” he said, “and I feel like both candidates are unfit to solve the problem in a political way and not a violent way.”
Majority say Trump would be better for housing prices
On housing prices, 53% of likely voters say Trump would do a better job, while 44% say they prefer Harris. Another 1% say neither would do a better job, and 2% are not sure.
Thiry picked Trump as the better candidate to take on housing prices. He said he sees the issue as a consequence of inflation.
“Every time you renew your lease, usually your rent goes up a little bit here, a little bit there. That’s just kind of the normal thing,” he said. “The past few years each time it’s renewed, it’s been quite a significant jump.”
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Most favor Trump over Harris on immigration, inflation