Trump sees Virginia as 'in play' for Republicans in 2024 election, despite recent losses
Former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign sees Virginia as “in play” for the November election, despite losing the commonwealth in 2016 and 2020.
Chris LaCivita, a GOP political strategist and advisor to Trump’s campaign, told NBC that Republicans “have a real, real opportunity in expanding the map in Virginia and Minnesota” in the upcoming presidential election.
Sign up for Your Vote: Text USA TODAY reporters and the elections team by joining our SMS service.
LaCivita’s optimism could be attributed to internal polling conducted by Trump’s campaign, the top lines of which appear consistent with a poll conducted by Roanoke College in February.
However, tests conducted by Trump’s team appear to contradict LaCivita’s assertion, at least in Virginia. In the commonwealth, those tests showed Biden leading Trump 40% to 37% in a six-way race that included Kennedy at 8%. In a four-way race, Biden had a 42%-to-41% advantage over Trump. And Biden led Trump 48% to 44% in a head-to-head contest, according to NBC.
Trump lost in Virginia twice
At a rally at the Greater Richmond Convention Center in March, Trump told attendees his campaign planned to “make a big play for Virginia.” But history hasn’t been kind to the former president in the commonwealth.
Trump lost to Sec. of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of 212,030 votes. He lost again to President Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 451,138 votes – doubling the number of votes cast in opposition to Trump.
The last time a Republican won the presidential election in Virginia was in 2004, when former President George W. Bush beat Sec. of State John Kerry.
"No two elections are alike, and 2024 is a different dynamic than 2016 and 2020," Rich Anderson, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said in a statement.
He argued that polling shows Trump and Biden in a "dead heat" and said the commonwealth's Republican Party, Trump's 2024 campaign and the Republican National Committee plan to work together to carry Virginia in November.
What does Virginia’s 2023 elections tell us?
Virginia is sometimes referred to as a harbinger for national politics, thanks to its off-year state-wide elections.
In November 2023 Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin was not on the ballot but control of the statehouse, and his ability to enact a conservative agenda, was. He hit the campaign trail to support Republicans seeking election to the State Senate and General Assembly. He floated a 15-week abortion ban as a compromise if Republicans were to gain control of the State Senate and maintain control of the House of Delegates.
Republicans lost the General Assembly and failed to gain control of the State Senate, and gaveDemocrats control of the state house. Democrats currently have a slim majority in both chambers, 21-19 in the State Senate and 51-49 in the House of Delegates.
This article originally appeared on Staunton News Leader: Is Virginia flippable? Trump seems to think so