Trump supporters expect election fraud and violence

NEW YORK – Bill Robinson believes it’s inevitable that the 2024 election ends in violence. A retired marketing professional, Robinson, 65, traveled to New York City from his home in North Carolina to attend former President Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally last month.

“It’s a horrendous possibility, because it looks like there’s no other option than some kind of extreme unrest,” Robinson said, as he stood outside Penn Station wearing a “Don’t Tread on Me” hat.

If Trump loses, Robinson predicts unrest on the right. If Trump wins, Robinson is worried about how the left will react.

He is not alone among supporters of the former president. Many of the Trump followers interviewed at his New York rally said they are worried about rising tensions and anticipating violence. The two assassination attempts against Trump have heightened concerns. Some echoed Trump's unfounded claims about a stolen election in 2020, which culminated in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and are prepared to reject the results if he loses again. Trump already is complaining without evidence about "cheating" in the current election, raising concerns among democracy experts about violence on the right if he loses.

Polls show an incredibly tight race, yet Trump claims he’s “leading by a lot” in key swing states and insists "the only thing that can stop us is the cheating," priming his supporters not to accept a loss.

“There’s no way she can naturally win an election, naturally,” New Hampshire resident Matt Anderson said of Vice President Kamala Harris, while waiting in line for the rally. If Harris wins, Anderson believes “there is fraud that needs to be investigated.”

While disavowing violence, some Trump supporters also said or implied that action of some kind could ensue if the election results are perceived as unfair. Anderson said "demonstration would be justified."

“I don’t think violence is ever justified, but that’s never stopped it," Robinson said. "Particularly in America, if somebody is stealing an election they’re committing treason. We used to execute traitors. Last time we executed Democrat traitors was in 1953 with Ethel and Julius Rosenberg. Are you telling me nobody's committed treason since then?"

Long Island resident Mike Zarro said he hopes the post-election period is peaceful but noted that passions are running high.

People get so invested in the campaign that when they lose they feel like “they did all this for nothing so now they have to resort to violence to prove to themselves they made a difference," Zarro said while waiting to get into the rally.

A September study from the Public Religion Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization, found that while only 1 in 6 Americans supports political violence, the numbers are much higher among Republicans than Democrats. According to the survey, 27% of Republicans and 32% of Republicans with a favorable view of Trump agree that “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” Only 10% of independents and 8% of Democrats said the same.

Trump was shot in the ear by a would-be assassin at a rally in July and a man was charged with attempting to assassinate Trump at his golf course in September.

Other recent incidents of election-related violent threats that resulted in charges last month include a Philadelphia man vowing to "skin" and kill a state party official for recruiting poll watchers and an Alabama man, who appeared in a CNN report about the conspiracy group Q-Anon, threatening to execute election officials in Arizona. An Arizona man was charged with shootings at a Democratic Party campaign office.

University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape said this is the “most violent political era” since 1968, when anti-war and civil rights protests were rocking the country and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated.

“We are in a wildfire season,” said Pape, who studies political violence in the U.S. and abroad and runs The Chicago Project on Security & Threats. “We’re going through a tinder box moment of several months that started back in July … and it’s likely, unfortunately, to continue through Jan. 20 and quite likely even beyond that.”

Heading for another Jan. 6 moment?

The threat of violence has permeated the 2024 election, with many concerned about a repeat of what happened on Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of the 2020 election results. Roughly 140 police officers were assaulted on Jan. 6, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.

Court after court rejected Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 results, which were affirmed by a series of recounts, reviews and audits.

That hasn't stopped Trump from claiming widespread fraud, and he now is making similar claims about the current election, telling a crowd in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Tuesday that "they've already started cheating."

"You have a lightning rod that has already set off one Jan. 6, and now essentially (is) saying he'll be willing to do it again if he doesn't win," Pape said.

Concerning incidents have occurred including ballot boxes being set on fire in Oregon and Washington and a Trump supporter being arrested in Neptune Beach, Florida, for threatening two Kamala Harris supporters with a machete outside an early voting site.

Despite those isolated incidents, early voting has gone fairly smoothly so far, with tens of millions of votes cast and "no violence of any scale," said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonprofit that works to build trust in elections.

But Becker is concerned that if Trump is losing as the votes are counted "he and his supporters might incite violence" against election workers who have been subject to increasing threats since 2020.

"The political violence in this country is coming from the left and President Trump has nearly lost his life not once but twice because of it," Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said. "President Trump has been clear: we must have a free and fair election. That’s why the RNC and Team Trump are fighting to ensure a safe and secure election for ALL Americans, regardless if they’re Republican or Democrat."

Authorities have not found a motive for Thomas Crooks, who shot Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, and FBI agent Kevin Rojek told reporters, "We've seen no definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left-leaning or right-leaning.”

Ryan Routh, who is accused of plotting to shoot Trump at his golf course, donated to Democrats and denounced Trump as “brainless,” after once supporting him, writing in a self-published book that the Iranians “are free to assassinate Trump.”

Tensions are high as Election Day approaches. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University survey from last month found that 66% of voters are concerned about violence on Election Day or afterward.

Democrats are especially on edge, with 89% of Kamala Harris’ supporters saying they’re concerned about violence. In contrast, nearly half of Trump supporters, 47%, said they aren’t very worried.

“We’ve been worried for three years now, and now it’s coming to a head,” said Marty Nagel, 68, a Long Island attorney and Trump critic who attended the Madison Square Garden rally to “bear witness.”

In the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris supporters overwhelmingly said they would accept the results if she loses, 88% to 7%, while only 61% of Trump supporters said they would accept a Trump loss and 24% said they would not.

Across the country, law enforcement, political leaders and election workers are bracing for a tumultuous end to the election and taking precautions.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security released a threat assessment report last month warning that "domestic violent extremists likely view a wide range of targets indirectly and directly associated with elections as viable targets for violence with the intent of instilling fear among voters, candidates, and election workers, as well as disrupting election processes leading up to and after the November election."

Voting centers have been fortified in some places, and police departments are making plans for civil unrest.

Trump has refused to say unequivocally that he'll accept the election results. The turmoil after the 2020 presidential contest has many election observes on edge as the 2024 race comes to a close.

Anderson strongly believes the 2020 election was stolen, despite nearly all of the election fraud cases brought by Trump's legal team in 2020 failing. A review by eight conservative legal experts of 64 cases filed by Trump's team said they didn't provide evidence of widespread fraud.

Trump supporters react to concerns about violence

Anderson said he wishes he’d "been at Jan. 6."

“Not to bust in windows and put feet on anybody’s desks or anything like that,” Anderson said. “But to show my support and ask the elected officials to do the thing that they are supposed to be doing, to do the right thing.”

If Trump refuses to accept another loss, Anderson said there should be televised trials so people can see the evidence being presented.

The tensions are drawing comparisons to some of the most divisive periods in American history. Both sides believe the stakes are enormous.

Asked if he's concerned about more violence in the election, Robinson said "absolutely."

"I don’t want to see this country descend into – some people like MSNBC and stuff are talking about a civil war like they want it," he added. "You know, if it has to happen I would prefer to characterize it as the American Revolution 2.0. Resistance to tyranny is obedience to God ... every single freedom we have is under threat."

Many Trump supporters accuse the left of fomenting violence.

Richard Everit is concerned about Trump surviving to Inauguration Day if he wins.

Everit, 59, lives in Pennsylvania and works as a truck driver out of New York City. He was outside Madison Square Garden waving a Trump flag last month before the Oct. 27 rally.

“It’s the rhetoric they use, they are weaponizing everything,” Everit said. “So what’s going to happen if he wins? Think about this, they’ve been calling him Hitler and all these things and now they got to deal with him. They’re using such rhetoric, why do you think he had two assassinations on him?”

Everit rejected the idea that Trump supporters could commit violence, saying “we’re not that way.”

“The violence ain’t on our side, come on, it’s like going to a Phish concert,” he said of Trump’s rallies, comparing them to the popular jam band.

The Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol resulted in charges against more the 1,265 individuals through the beginning of 2024, including 452 charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding police officers and 123 charged with "using a deadly or dangerous weapon or causing serious bodily injury to an officer," according to the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia.

Other Trump supporters at the Madison Square Garden rally acknowledged that violence on the right is a possibility if he loses, but condemned it.

“I don’t think the violence is necessary, I think win or lose it should be more accepted, but people … they’re just waiting to get riled up over something,” said Zarro, a tow truck driver from Hampton Bays on Long Island.

'I wouldn’t say rigged'

Several Trump supporters interviewed by USA TODAY said they're worried about the fairness of the election.

Robinson believes that Democrats are certain to cheat, alleging “it’s not really a question of if they cheat, the Democrats have a storied history of cheating in elections."

“I wouldn’t say rigged, I don’t think it’s, like, rigged,” said Dorothy Purtill, 53, a legal secretary from Wappingers Falls who was attending the Madison Square Garden rally. “I think that there could be things going on that probably shouldn’t.”

Purtill played down the threat of violence from either side.

“I’m not concerned about violence," if Trump loses, she said. "I’m concerned about what it’s going to do to the cost of living for the average American."

As for the threats Trump has faced.

"I think there’s a few rare crazies out there," she said. "I don’t think most people are out to commit violence."

Contributing: Bart Jansen and Erin Mansfield.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump is talking about 'cheating.' His supporters are listening