Will Trump take swing state Pennsylvania? What the polls say now
Election Day is just eight days away and the swing states have swayed, according to the polls and odds.
While the last two months worth of national polls have consistently shown Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead, it has continued to shrink week to week as former President Donald Trump has been gaining ground and taken the lead in five of the seven crucial swing states, now likely to determine the race.
Most states consistently vote blue or red such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, but some lean differently in each election. These battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are swinging so close that it can really go either way.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both Trump and Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.
Here is what the polls, odds say now — about each of the swing states compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the swing states' polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.4%, Harris 48.1% to Trump's 46.7%; Pennsylvania has Trump leading by +0.3%; Arizona has Trump leading by +1.9%; Georgia has Trump leading by +1.5%; Michigan has Harris leading by +0.4%; Nevada has Trump leading by +0.2%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +1.3%; and Wisconsin has Harris leading by +0.1. Harris lead has shrunk since last week's polls results.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.7% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Trump leads over Harris by 0.4%; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.7%; Georgia has Trump leading by 0.9%; Michigan has Harris leading by 0.8%; Nevada has Trump leading by 0.3%; North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.1%, and Wisconsin has Harris leading by 0.4%. Trump has taken the lead since last week's polls results.
realclearpolling shows the national betting odds have shifted to Trump's favor by a razor-thin spread of +0.1 over Harris, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.5; Arizona shows odds +1.5 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.3 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.1 in favor of Trump; Nevada shows +0.7 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +0.8 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.3 in favor of Trump. Trump maintains marginal lead in all of the swing states and the national odds compared to last week's polls results.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 66.3% over Harris 33.8%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 62% over Harris's 39%. Arizona shows Trump favored 74% over Harris 27%. Georgia shows Trump favored 74% over Harris 27%. Michigan shows Trump favored 53% over Harris 47%. Nevada shows Trump favored 65% over Harris 36%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 71% over Harris 30%. Wisconsin shows Trump favored 59% over Harris 41%. All of the betting odds are in Trump's growing favor over Harris compared to last week's polls results..
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, at 11 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning? What latest polls say now in Pennsylvania, swing states