Trump's field operation in Arizona remains sparse as clock ticks toward November election

Former President Donald Trump still has little or no campaign field operation in must-win Arizona about six months ahead of Election Day.

The election is historic. Trump has mounted a reelection campaign even after he and his allies made efforts to undermine the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and he is the first major presidential candidate to face the prospect of four criminal trials in an election year.

The race’s outcome could plausibly be decided in Arizona, one of a handful of states seen as up for grabs by both parties. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Arizona by around 10,000 votes, a fraction of the attendance at each of Taylor Swift’s 2023 concerts in Glendale.

Still Trump’s field investments in the state remain sparse as the clock ticks toward November. The Arizona Republic previously noted in March that the Trump campaign wasn't materializing as many expected.

The chair of the Arizona Republican Party, Gina Swoboda, has voiced concerns with the Republican National Committee that the state isn’t getting enough resources, the Washington Post has reported. She did not reply to a request for more information about the campaign resources it has received or deployed.

Matt Salmon, a former U.S. representative who chaired the Arizona GOP during the 2006 election cycle, recalls that the state party began rolling out its field operation in the springtime that year. That was a midterm election year without a presidential race.

“It’s incredibly important to have what we all lovingly call 'boots-on-the-ground': people that are willing to canvass neighborhoods, people that are willing to coordinate signs in the yard, and just getting the message out,” Salmon said.

If anything, there should be more resources now that Arizona is one of the country’s most competitive swing states, and in light of the GOP’s recent losses statewide, he said.

“With Arizona being as competitive as it is … and the fact that both of our senators are now not Republicans, it bespeaks the need for a lot more involvement than we even had then," Salmon added.

Trump’s field presence in Arizona has so far been a shadow of what it was during the 2020 election cycle. In early 2024, the state party had a single-digit number of employees on its payroll. Four years before, it had upwards of 60.

The disparity comes as Trump's campaign and the GOP are facing cash crunches on several fronts.

The Trump campaign previously said that they "do not feel obligated" to discuss specifics of their strategy with the media.

Reached for comment, campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt wrote, “We have paid staffers and volunteer-powered field programs in every battleground state, including Arizona, and they are expanding daily.

"Our aggressive and experienced operation is focused on turning out votes and highlighting the contrast between Joe Biden’s weakness and failures with President Trump’s record of success.”

Brian Seitchik, who was the Trump campaign’s Arizona state director in 2016 and the regional field director for the West in 2020, confirmed that the campaign’s footprint is significantly smaller this time around. But he wonders whether it will matter as much as some observers are predicting.

“The reality is we have two candidates running for president who are arguably the most-known candidates facing off in modern political history.

“Donald Trump is the greatest vote motivator in the history of modern American politics, both to the good and to the bad. He encourages and excites Republicans like no other Republican,” Seitchik said. “At the same time, he has the same effect, negatively, on Democrats.”

Seitchik pointed out that Republicans have invested in efforts to identify Arizona’s swing voters for years, as have Democrats. That allows the party to use their dollars more efficiently, he argued, and it means that a campaign’s field operation can’t only be judged by how much money they spend.

Still, the conventional wisdom is that a good field operation can turn out two to three percent of the vote, he said. That’s well over Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in Arizona.

Seitchik has heard field efforts likened to a “field goal unit” in football.

“If you’re up or down a significant number of points, the field operation really doesn’t matter. But in a close contest, three points for a field goal — or the ground game effort — is significant,” he said.

Other organizations could fill in the gaps. The conservative group Turning Point Action is organizing a field mobilization program in battleground states like Arizona. Its leaders have billed the initiative as an effort to correct what they deem failures in national Republicans’ leadership. The group did not respond to multiple requests for comment about the resources it has deployed.

Laura Gersony covers national politics for the Arizona Republic. Contact her at 480-372-0389.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Trump vs. Biden in Arizona: Trump's field operation still minimal