GOP inches closer to retaining House majority
Control of the House has yet to be determined, as a number of critical races remain too close to call, leaving lawmakers — and voters — waiting to see which party will hold the majority next year.
The sprint to 218 seats, however, is nearing the final stretch, after a handful of additional races were called in the days following election night.
Republicans had secured 216 seats in the lower chamber as of Saturday evening, with Democrats trailing at 209 seats, according to Decision Desk HQ. A total of 10 races have not yet been called: Democrats are leading in two of the contests, while GOP candidates are ahead in the other eight.
Republicans, nonetheless, are wasting no time in claiming victory even as the final tally remains unclear. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said the House is poised to remain in GOP hands, and he has already launched his bid to retain hold of the gavel.
Democrats, meanwhile, are holding out hope that they could eke out a razor-thin majority. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Thursday it “has yet to be decided who will control” the House next year, pointing to ongoing ballot counting in Oregon, Arizona and California.
Several competitive House races have been called in the past couple days, including Rep. David Schweikert’s (R) reelection in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District; Rep. David Valadao’s (R) reelection in California’s 22nd Congressional District; April McClain Delaney’s (D) election in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District; Rep. Andrea Salinas’s (D) reelection in Oregon’s 6th Congressional District; Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D) reelection in California’s 26th Congressional District; and Rep. Linda Sánchez’s (D) reelection in California 38th Congressional District.
Here are the uncalled races to watch in the quest for control of the House.
California’s 21st Congressional District
Rep. Jim Costa (D) is fighting for his political life in California’s 21st Congressional District in a race that surprisingly emerged as a nail-biter this cycle.
Costa, a 10-term lawmaker, was leading Republican Michael Maher, a former FBI agent, by 1 percentage point — or 1,303 votes — according to Decision Desk HQ, with 63.8 percent of the vote in.
The race was never expected to be close. The district broke for President Biden by 20.3 percentage points in 2020, and Cook Political Report rated the seat “solid Democrat.” A victory by Maher would flip the district red.
The current margin contrasts with that from 2022, when Maher challenged Costa for the seat and lost by 8.4 percentage points.
California’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Josh Harder (D) is locked in a tight race against Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) in California’s 9th Congressional District, a contest that is threatening to end the incumbent’s tenure on Capitol Hill.
Harder, who was first elected to the House in 2018, was leading Lincoln by 2.4 percentage points — or 4,024 ballots — with 63.8 percent of the vote reported.
A victory by Lincoln, who has served as mayor of Stockton since 2021, would be a boon for Republicans: Biden won the district by 12.6 percentage points in 2020, making the district reliably blue. Cook Political Report had rated the district “likely Democrat.”
California’s 47th Congressional District
The race to succeed outgoing Rep. Katie Porter (D) in California’s 47th Congressional District is coming down to the wire, with Republican Scott Baugh, a former Assembly member, and Democratic state Sen. Dave Min running neck and neck for the seat.
Baugh, who previously served as the state’s Assembly minority leader and Orange County GOP chair, was leading Min by 0.4 percentage points — or 1,078 votes — as of publication, with 81.7 percent of ballots reported.
A Baugh victory would flip the seat red and mark the first time the district has a GOP representative since 2003. Biden won the district by 11.1 percentage points in 2020; Cook Political Report rated the district “lean Democrat.”
Porter opted against running for reelection to vie for the Golden State’s Senate seat, which opened up after Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) died last year. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is temporarily filling the seat but elected not to run for a full term. Porter, though, lost to Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) in the Democratic primary.
Alaska’s at-large Congressional District
Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D) is fighting for political survival in Alaska’s at-large Congressional District, where she is currently trailing Republican entrepreneur Nick Begich in the ranked-choice-voting state.
Begich was leading Peltola 49.6 percent to 45.6 percent with 74 percent of the vote in at the time of publication. Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Howe secured 3.9 percent, and Democrat Eric Hafner pulled in 1 percent.
The lone Alaska district is one of a handful that President-elect Trump won in 2020, making it a key pickup target for Republicans. That year, Trump beat Biden in the state by 10.1 percentage points.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.”
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
The race in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District has become as close as it can be.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a first-term lawmaker, was leading former Democratic state lawmaker Kirsten Engel by 1,795 votes — or 0.5 percentage points — with 83.3 percent of ballots tallied.
The district is as purple as any can get: In 2020, Biden won the area by 0.1 percentage points.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.” The race is a rematch from last cycle, when Ciscomani narrowly edged out Engel by 1.4 percentage points.
California’s 13th Congressional District
Rep. John Duarte (R) is leading former Democratic state Assembly member Adam Gray in California’s 13th Congressional District, but the closely watched race remains uncalled.
With 61.9 percent of the vote in, Duarte — a first-term lawmaker — was ahead of Gray by 2.5 percentage points.
The race has been one of the most closely watched contests this cycle, with Democrats hoping to pick off Duarte in the district after it broke for Biden by 10.9 percentage points in 2020 — a feat the party failed to achieve in 2022. That year, Duarte beat Gray by 0.42 percentage points — just 564 votes.
Cook Political Report rated this year’s race a “toss up.”
California’s 27th Congressional District
Democrat George Whitesides, the former Virgin Galactic CEO who also served as NASA chief of staff during the Obama administration, has taken the lead in his race against incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Garcia (Calif.) — but the numbers are tight.
Whitesides is leading Garcia by 0.8 percentage points — or 2,114 ballots — with 85 percent of votes reported.
A win by Garcia would let out a sigh of relief among Republicans, who were under pressure to defend the seat amid a strong Democratic effort. Democrats consider the district a top pickup opportunity, citing the fact that it broke for Biden by 12.4 percentage points in 2020. A Whitesides victory would be a boon for the party.
Cook Political Report rated the race a “toss up.”
California’s 41st Congressional District
Rep. Ken Calvert (R) is fighting tooth and nail to hold his seat in California’s 41st Congressional District.
Calvert — a 30-plus year veteran of the House who is a cardinal on the Appropriations Committee — was leading Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by 2.8 percentage points with 75 percent of the vote in.
The district has emerged as a key battleground. In 2020, it broke for Trump by 1.1 percentage points. Cook Political Report rated this year’s race a “toss up.”
Calvert is currently running ahead by a smaller margin than his victory against Rollins in 2022. That year, he beat the GOP challenger by 4.6 percentage points.
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District
Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) is slightly trailing Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans in in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, but the race remains close.
With 89.5 percent of the vote in, Evans was ahead of Caraveo by 0.8 percentage points — or 2,529 votes — a razor-thin lead that, if it sustains, would be a GOP flip.
Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
California’s 45th Congressional District
Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) has a healthy lead against Democrat Derek Tran, though the race has not yet been called.
With 78.9 percent of the vote in, Steel, a two-term lawmaker, was ahead of Tran, a consumer rights attorney, by 2.9 percentage points, or 7,590 votes.
The district is one of the 17 areas Biden won in 2020 that are currently represented by a Republican, making it a top pickup target for Democrats. Biden won the area, which includes Orange and Los Angeles counties, by 6.1 percentage points in 2020. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss up.”
Updated Nov. 9 at 9:23 p.m. EST.
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