Will uncounted ballots change election outcomes in Bucks County, Pennsylvania?

Bucks County officials will meet Tuesday to decide how many of at least 10,200 uncounted ballots will be added to its unofficial election totals, potentially impacting President-elect Donald Trump’s razor-thin win over Democrat Kamala Harris in the county.

While a change in vote outcome locally would have no impact on Trump’s Pennsylvania win, it highlights the increasing role in tight races of provisional ballots, a historically little used last-resort voting option.

Provisional ballots are also anticipated to play a role in deciding the uber-close  Pennsylvania Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and GOP businessman Dave McCormick, who are separated by roughly a half percentage point. Last week, several networks called the race for McCormick.

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McCormick was ahead by about 40,000 votes as of Sunday and the Associated Press declared him the winner on Thursday. On Friday, McCormick filed two lawsuits challenging provisional ballots in Philadelphia.

The Pennsylvania Department of State estimated on Thursday about 100,000 ballots remained uncounted. Casey has not conceded and his campaign noted that vote margins are 0.58, within striking distance of the .05 percentage points needed to trigger an automatic state recount.

In Bucks County, the unofficial vote tallies show 512 vote difference between Trump and Harris ― 195,147 votes to 194,635 — in Bucks County. Trump’s win is the first for a GOP presidential candidate in the county since 1988.

The Bucks County tallies also show Casey squeaked past McCormick 193,485 votes to 192,254, which is less than a 0.5 percentage point.

The use of provisional ballots, an option available when voter eligibility is questioned at the polls, have soared in Bucks County from 500 in the 2016 general election to more than 3,100 in the 2022 midterm general election, according to county data.

On Tuesday roughly 5,200 voters cast provisional votes, the highest number in recent memory.

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What are provisional ballots and why are they becoming more popular?

A provisional ballot records a vote until its validity is determined at a special public post-election meeting held a week after the election. The Bucks County Board of Elections is expected to hold that meeting Tuesday.

Before Tuesday, county board of election staff members are responsible for evaluating each provisional ballot and gathering information that would permit the board of elections to determine whether the person was eligible to vote.

The increased use of provisional ballots is directly attributed to the uptick in mail-in ballots. It is most frequently used by voters who planned to vote by mail, but changed their minds and lost their mail-in ballots, which they are required to turn in to vote in-person.

In the May 2022 primary, 169 of the nearly 650 provisional votes cast – roughly 25% – were rejected, according to election data. Later that year, a little under 500 of the 3,100 provisional votes cast or 15% were rejected in the general election.

The most common reasons in 2022 for rejecting a provisional ballot included the mail-in or absentee ballot was received, the voter was not registered or registered outside the county, missing signatures and secrecy envelopes or failing to supply required identification.

Are provisional ballots the only ones that will be counted Tuesday?

No. Another roughly 5,000 mail-in ballots segregated as a result of issues will also be reviewed and the board will decide if they are counted or rejected at the Board of Elections meeting, Bucks County spokesman James O’Malley said.

Tuesday is also the deadline for overseas ballots to arrive. The county mailed about 3,000 of those ballots, but it was unknown how many had been returned as of Thursday or when they would be counted before the Nov. 25 deadline to certify the results.

How big of a role do provisional ballots play in election outcomes?

Despite their increasing use in Pennsylvania, not much research is available on partisan influence in provisional ballots because historically they haven’t played a big role in swaying results, said Stephen Medvic, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

What data is available suggests that nationally roughly 1 in 5 provisional ballots - roughly 25% – are rejected, Medvic said.

But the reasons why voters use provisional ballots could provide insight into any partisan influence that could swing tight races, Medvic said.

Among the main reasons individuals give for voting provisionally revolve around mail-in ballots, which research shows are more widely used by Democrats.

“They definitely could make the difference,” Medvic said, adding. “If you have 5,000 provisional ballots in Bucks, imagine how many you have in Philly and Pittsburgh.”

Republican political strategist Sam Chen, a principal director of the Allentown-based communications firm The Liddell Group, agreed that provisional ballots are increasingly seen as influential in elections.

“Absolutely in a race this tight it can swing an outcome. It makes it annoying because they count these ballots last,” he said. “It’s annoying and slow but also necessary.”

Can I find out if my provisional ballot was counted?

You should be able to find out whether your provisional ballot was counted starting seven days after the election.

If your provisional ballot wasn't counted, you can find out why by either searching for your provisional ballot online or by calling 1-877-VOTEPA. You're to provide your provisional ballot identification number, which is the receipt you're to receive at the polling place.

(This story was updated to add new information.)

Reporter Jo Ciavaglia can be reached at [email protected]

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: How provisional ballots could change election results in Bucks County