What the 'uninstructed' movement means for Wisconsin voters, Biden's chances

Note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Leaders Igniting Transformation is not an official endorser of Listen to Wisconsin.

In summer 2020, Ismail El-Hassan spent every day in the sweltering sun, door-knocking for Joe Biden.

But, April 2, he plans to vote against the incumbent president as an uninstructed voter, alongside other Wisconsinites protesting the Biden administration's military aid for Israel.

El-Hassan, a 24-year-old University of Wisconsin-Madison law student, first heard about uninstructed voting on a trip to Michigan. Among a group of law students and professors, conversation swirled around the subject of Michigan's uncommitted movement, led by a cohort of Arab Americans and Muslim activists.

El-Hassan, who's Muslim, hoped to find a similar initiative in Wisconsin. Then, Listen to Wisconsin, a group encouraging Wisconsin voters to cast uninstructed votes, emerged. On Monday, 20 state and local elected officials endorsed the campaign.

Using the skills he gained as a canvasser for Biden, El-Hassan estimates he's spoken to over 30 people — friends, classmates, Uber drivers and more — about his decision to vote uninstructed. During these conversations, he encouraged others to do the same.

"What do we get out of Biden's thinking that he wins no matter what? Like, what do we get out of him?" El-Hassan said. "Pointing a bogeyman and then just being, like, 'Vote for me.'"

Though El-Hassan is open to supporting Biden in November, he said the movement aims to address a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where an estimated 1.1 million civilians are at risk of famine and face limited access to medical treatment and other essential resources, according to a recent report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.

"We need to send a statement now, and then hopefully that can save people's lives," he said. "And then, after the primaries, we can talk about who we're gonna vote for November."

Since launching in March, Listen to Wisconsin's coalition of organizers and community leaders use text-banking events, social media posts and canvassing to try to mobilize voters.

A text message from the organization reads, "No matter how you plan on voting in November, this primary is our best chance to tell President Biden — enough is enough! We don't want our tax dollars funding this inhumane massacre anymore."

Thousands of votes have chosen similar options like "uncommitted" or "no preference" in other states that have already held their primaries. That's leading to questions about whether the "uninstructed" movement could make Biden vulnerable in Wisconsin, a key November battleground state. In 2020, he won Wisconsin by a little over 20,000 votes.

"In Wisconsin, the stakes are uniquely high," said Anthony Chergosky, a University of Wisconsin La-Crosse political science professor. "So even if the uninstructed vote gets a fairly small percentage, that still matters in a state where a swing of a few thousand votes here or there could change the outcome."

Why are some groups encouraging the uninstructed option?

When presented with the opportunity to join Listen to Wisconsin, Voces de la Frontera Action's executive committee met to discuss how issues facing the immigrant and Latino community and pro-Palestinian groups intersect.

Some organizers said they got backlash from peers and family members for pushing people to vote uninstructed, but they believe the frustration is from fear and limited knowledge.

"The only concern that we have is to obviously not create confusion, and to really make sure that we're doing education on how immigration connects to the plight of the Palestinians," said Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera Action. "We're not sending a message to vote Trump."

Youth-focused civic engagement organization Leaders Igniting Transformation told the Journal Sentinel that the movement struck a chord with young voters seeking a pathway to how elected officials accountable and demonstrate the political priority that young people place on a Gaza ceasefire.

"Young people vote for candidates who align with their values and are committed to addressing the issues that matter most to them," said Amanda Avalos, Leaders Igniting Transformation co-director. "They’re paying attention. They see when politicians they overwhelmingly helped to elect ignore them, and they are using their vote to push back."

According to Listen to Wisconsin organizers, the group's organizing base is a collective of young voters, people of color, left-wing progressives and moderates. Their shared interest is peace.

"We don't want lip service and we're done with games," organizer Janan Najeeb said. "We want unhindered and complete access to all humanitarian aid, including clean water, food, medical supplies, and equipment for Palestinians. We want the release of all hostages."

State Rep. Ryan Clancy, who's also a Milwaukee County supervisor, said he usually votes early but is waiting until April 2 to see if Biden changes course. Clancy has talked to younger and progressive voters who just want to sit the election out, which he thinks "would be a real shame."

"I cannot bring myself to vote for somebody who is enabling genocide," Clancy said. "I want to be very clear, I do not want another four years of Donald Trump. I believe that this campaign is the best way to prevent that. Because the goal here is not to vote against Biden. It's to effect policy change."

More: Baldwin joins senators pushing Biden for path to recognize 'nonmilitarized Palestinian state'

Do some voters plan to vote for third parties instead?

Third-party candidates like the Green Party's Jill Stein have presented themselves as Biden alternatives, though they aren't on Wisconsin's primary ballot.

Amaya Bauldwin, an 18-year-old Milwaukee native attending North Carolina Central University, is voting for the first time. She doesn't want her vote to go to waste.

Bauldwin said the issues driving her are more local, like the funding of Milwaukee Public Schools, but she sees how voting uninstructed or third-party could help people who feel their voices aren't being heard.

"I haven't decided yet, because I know third parties don't usually have electoral power," she said, "but I think it would definitely make a statement once they say, 'OK, these people aren't coming out to vote.'"

Chergosky noted there are different ways of casting "protest votes" in presidential elections.

"Democrats who are unhappy with Biden could plug their nose and vote for him," he said. "They could also vote uninstructed in the primary and then threaten to sit out the election. They could also vote third-party.

"I think those latter two options are particularly concerning for Democrats in closely divided states like Wisconsin."

The "uninstructed delegation" option also picked up a few thousand votes in both parties in Wisconsin's 2020 presidential primary. About 3,590 chose that option on the Democratic side, and 11,246 on the Republican side, where Trump was the only remaining candidate.

In interviews with the Journal Sentinel, most Listen to Wisconsin organizers ruled out voting third-party. They'd more likely not vote or consider voting for Biden than cast a ballot that makes little to no impact.

How has the Biden campaign responded to the uninstructed movement?

Some protests have been staged during recent Biden administration visits to Wisconsin, including the president's trip to Milwaukee earlier in March. About 125 people gathered in Red Arrow Park and said they wouldn't vote for Biden in the primary as a demonstration of their outrage over the United States' response to the war.

In response, the Biden campaign issued a statement similar to those it gave in response to other state primary protest votes.

"The President believes making your voice heard and participating in our democracy is fundamental to who we are as Americans. He shares the goal for an end to the violence and a just, lasting peace in the Middle East. He's working tirelessly to that end," campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt said.

At a March 3 event in Selma, Ala., Vice President Kamala Harris called for an immediate, temporary ceasefire in Gaza, urging Israeli officials to negotiate with Hamas for an exchange of hostages. NBC reported that National Security Council officials "watered down" Harris' speech to reduce aggressive criticism of Israel.

The Biden administration is building a temporary pier to deliver humanitarian aid for citizens and has asked Israel to not launch a military campaign in Rafah to avoid further civilian endangerment. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the appeal.

Former President Donald Trump hasn't called for any restraint of military force in the region.

What does 'uninstructed delegation' actually mean?

Voters in a presidential primary are actually votes to send delegates in support of a candidate to the parties' nominating conventions. That includes the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer.

More: What are presidential delegates and how does the process work?

Choosing an "uninstructed delegation" means the delegate would go to the convention without being "instructed" to vote for any specific candidate. Wisconsin's primary is already "advisory" rather than "binding" — meaning delegates aren't required to vote for a certain candidate at the convention.

On the Democratic side, candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to earn delegates. Uncommitted delegates have earned 20 spots in other primary states. Clancy said he would be the "first to volunteer" if Wisconsin has uninstructed delegates and "make that case for policy change" at the convention.

How many people voted uninstructed in other state primaries?

States have slightly different wordings for the vote option, such as "uncommitted" or "no preference." Some states like Arizona don't have that option on the ballot, and organizers instead urged Democrats to vote for Marianne Williamson, who has advocated for a ceasefire for months.

On Super Tuesday, when 15 states held their primaries, the "uncommitted" option didn't win any races but beat out other candidates in the Democratic primary. In Michigan, a battleground state like Wisconsin, around 13% of voters chose the option, representing more than 100,000 votes.

More: Support for 'uncommitted' extended beyond Michigan's Arab American and Muslim communities

In Minnesota — which has a similar population to Wisconsin — 45,915 people selected the "uncommitted" option, or 19%. In North Carolina, 88,021 voters selected "no preference," or around 13%. Other states had much smaller percentages compared to what Biden won, but still represented thousands of voters.

What would a large uninstructed vote mean for the Biden campaign in Wisconsin?

In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes. If the uninstructed vote count April 2 is around that size or larger, it could show Biden's vulnerability in the state. The Republican Party of Wisconsin didn't respond to a request for comment about what it could mean for its margins.

After the primary, Chergosky said he's going to be watching how campaigns interpret and respond to those numbers.

If the uninstructed vote is small in Wisconsin and the Biden campaign knows the base is with it, then it can "go all-in on reaching out to swing voters in the suburbs," he said. But if it's more significant, "the Biden campaign might think to themselves that they really need to shore up the base in advance of the November election."

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin's 'uninstructed' push: What it means in April 2024 election