'Very vulnerable' Southeast could see more hurricanes before season ends

VERO BEACH, Fla. ?A relative meteorological calm that has settled over the southeastern U.S. after months of brutal storms does not mean the 2024 hurricane season plans to go out quietly, forecasters warn.

A cavalcade of storms highlighted by Helene and Milton slammed Florida and much of the Southeast with high winds, record rains, flooding and damage that ultimately could exceed a staggering $100 billion. The six-month season technically wraps up Nov. 30, but AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns that tropical development could stretch into December. The last named tropical storm to occur in December was Olga in 2007.

"We've been saying it since the very beginning of the hurricane season, even way back before when we made our initial forecast out in March, that we thought the end of the hurricane season could get quite active," DaSilva said. "We still think that right now."

More storms brewing? Historic hurricane season rolls on

Developments:

? Two different tracks are possible for a system developing in the Caribbean, DaSilva said. Based on very early predictions, timing for both scenarios would be Nov. 7-10.

? The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

All quiet on the Atlantic front, for now

Short term, all appears pretty quiet. The National Hurricane Center noted on its website Tuesday that "there are no cyclones in the Atlantic at this time." The coast is not entirely clear, however. A broad area of low pressure likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean this week could form a tropical depression by week's end, hurricane specialist Andrew Hagen wrote in a forecast early Tuesday.

Hagen said the system should drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean and he put the chances of the tropical depression developing at about 40%.

Florida could see another 'tropical impact'

AccuWeather forecasters, however, have been warning since last week about the potential for a tropical depression or storm developing in the western Caribbean and currently give the system a high chance for development from Nov. 1-4. There's also another area with a low chance for development over the weekend or early next week. This one is located east-southeast of Florida, according to AccuWeather.

DaSilva said the entire state of Florida and up to the Carolinas could see "another tropical impact" before the season ends. There is a lower risk for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, he said.

"And of course, those areas are already very, very vulnerable from multiple hits this season," he said.

Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November. The early months of the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast, moving across the Atlantic and giving people plenty of advance notice. Not so for the final weeks, when tropical development typically shifts closer to the United States, DaSilva said.

"It wouldn't shock me if we're dealing with a hurricane potentially at one point early in November," DaSilva said.

Regardless of development, widespread downpours are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even if a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.

Wind shear could play key role

Two conditions that have played a role throughout this hurricane season could allow yet another depression or tropical storm or even a hurricane to form: low wind shear and very warm water.

"If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season may bring more storms to battered Florida, Southeast