Can vice president candidate Tim Walz’s 'Normal Joe vibe' appeal to Arizona men?

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz knocks Republicans for being “weird.” Can he win over Arizona men by being “normal”?

Vice President Kamala Harris’s brand new running mate is coming to Arizona, and political watchers here say he could draw independent male voters into her coalition if he can follow the playbook of another Democrat Harris considered for the post: Sen. Mark Kelly.

The 60-year-old Walz was relatively unknown outside of his home state of Minnesota until this week. Now, he has three months to introduce himself on the biggest stage in politics — and avoid being shoved into a political box.

“What has underwritten the success of Mark Kelly in Arizona, it's the same basic thing that I think is going to underwrite the success of Walz in Arizona,” said David Waid, former executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party. “He is a Democrat who breaks the mold, who breaks the expectations and can't be put neatly into a box.”

Since she took over the top of the ticket last month, Harris has made up much of the ground that President Joe Biden had lost to former President Donald Trump in the years since the 2020 election. The race has narrowed, public polling shows, and the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group that forecasts elections, this week moved Arizona from “lean Republican” to “toss-up."

A new survey from the Arizona polling firm HighGround found Harris narrowly leading Trump in Arizona 44% to 42% among likely voters. She has a 15 percentage point lead among female voters, but Trump has a 10 percentage point lead with men. The survey was conducted July 30-Aug. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.

Walz certainly “will not hurt her with men,” said Chuck Coughlin, the president and CEO of HighGround and a longtime Republican strategist who left the party in the Trump era. The campaign also has a number of issues to clarify to voters during the Democratic National Convention later this month, he added.

“As the survey shows, she is struggling with men in general,” Coughlin said. “Having a strong and confident response on immigration and articulating a strong and confident position on Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan will help her with men. But most importantly, being clear-eyed about economic policies, tax cuts vs. deficit concerns will help her.”

If Walz can play up his working class and pro-union bona fides, his background as a teacher and his perspective as a hunter who understands gun rights, he could tap into what helped Kelly win back-to-back races in 2020 and 2022, Waid said. Walz showed he could win over Republicans when he flipped a red district during his first race for Congress in 2006.

“He's going to be appealing to white men independents. I think he's a perfect fit for that, and that is a very large voting bloc in Arizona,” Waid said. “This is something that can really begin to put some space between her and Trump, this VP choice.”

So far, Walz has received a warm reception from Arizona Democrats who have won statewide in recent years. Kelly said Walz and Harris are “building a campaign to unite our country” and Gov. Katie Hobbs said she is “absolutely thrilled” and even let out a scream when she heard the news. Rep. Greg Stanton, who called for Biden to step aside weeks ago, will attend the Harris-Walz rally in Phoenix on Friday.

But the Trump campaign is already working to cast Walz as “dangerously liberal,” playing up progressive initiatives he’s supported as governor. Trump's team pointed to Walz's support of stricter emission standards for gas-powered cars, cast doubt on his respect for rural America and tied him to Harris’s native California.

Trump, who is a convicted felon, also attacked Walz for “embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote” in Minnesota.

"It’s no surprise that San Francisco Liberal Kamala Harris wants West Coast wannabe Tim Walz as her running-mate – Walz has spent his governorship trying to reshape Minnesota in the image of the Golden State,” Trump campaign Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a written statement. “Walz is obsessed with spreading California’s dangerously liberal agenda far and wide. If Walz won’t tell voters the truth, we will: just like Kamala Harris, Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist, and the Harris-Walz California dream is every American’s nightmare."

Some Republicans aren’t buying it. Sam Campana, the first woman mayor of Scottsdale and a lifelong member of the GOP, recently joined a group of Republicans backing Harris and Walz over Trump and Vance. She said that voters have outgrown those labels that the two parties fling at each other, such as “flaming liberal” and “ultra-conservative.”

“You can't just listen to these labels anymore,” Campana said. “When you give them the biggest tax cut they've ever had, that doesn't sound like a flaming liberal to me. You know, that sounds like somebody who really is listening and caring about their constituents.”

But other aspects of Walz’s record could hurt him with Arizona voters. Chad Heywood, the former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, said Walz’s early campaign moves have been “great at making him a likable, common guy introducing himself.”

“That being said, his positions are very progressive, and I think a lot of the soft Republicans and moderate independent voters won’t appreciate his more liberal positions on controversial issues like gender-affirming care for minors, abortion, marijuana legalization,” Heywood said. “Probably a missed opportunity for the Harris ticket to have reached undecided moderate voters.”

Harris has been on defense when it comes to immigration, a top issue for Arizona voters. Democrats who have won statewide race in Arizona are often more conservative on the issue than their party is nationally, and Republicans killed a bipartisan immigration bill in Congress earlier this year to avoid handing Democrats an election year victory on the issue.

Walz took a progressive track on immigration as Minnesota governor, namely expanding some state services to undocumented residents. Minnesota expanded drivers' licenses to all Minnesota residents last year, regardless of their immigration status. The initiative was expected to benefit approximately 81,000 undocumented immigrants in the state, and 20 other states and territories do the same.

What does Walz bring to the Democratic ticket in Arizona?

What a vice presidential candidate can actually bring to the ticket is an often debated issue in politics. Even former President Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance have said they expect Vance to have little impact on the race. Vance had a rocky start to his role as Trump’s second-in-command, but tried to hit the reset button during a trip to Arizona last week.

Harris and Walz balance one another, Campana said, noting that Harris is a woman with a diverse background: her mother was Indian and her father is Jamaican. Walz will let Harris take center stage as the presidential candidate and “work hard in the background,” she said, the way that Harris did for Biden and Biden did for former President Barack Obama.

Both vice presidential candidates are “bringing a vibe to the ticket,” Waid said. Vance balances Trump’s septuagenarian status and speaks to the former president’s base, for example.

“Vance brings a, let’s call it a 'Young MAGA' vibe,” Waid said. And for Walz: “It’s more of what I think most Americans know as a 'Normal Joe.'"

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Can Gov. Tim Walz’s ‘Normal Joe vibe’ appeal to Arizona men?