I watched hours of JD Vance and Tim Walz past debate footage. Here’s what I learned

Tonight, Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will face off in their only vice presidential debate. Given that Donald Trump has publicly said he will not debate Kamala Harris again, this will likely be the final televised debate before the nation votes on Election Day.

Betting odds show that most people think Walz will prevail against Vance. And there is good reason for that. Walz has consistently had to debate in tough elections ever since he first ran for Congress in 2006. As a Democrat in a battleground district, Walz often had to defend his hewing to the Democratic line. Even in relatively easier races when he ran for governor, he faced tough questions on his record during tumultuous times.

When Vance went from being a critic of Trump to an acolyte and then a candidate for Senate, he significantly underperformed the top of the ticket in Ohio in his one race. He largely only won the Republican nomination on the back of Trump’s endorsement — which he then parlayed into becoming Trump’s running mate.

The Independent reviewed multiple debate performances from Walz and Vance’s career. For Walz, we looked at his first debate in 2006 when he ran for Congress; his 2010 re-election debate after he voted for Obamacare; and his 2022 debate when he ran for re-election for governor in the aftermath of strident Black Lives Matter protests.

For Vance, The Independent reviewed two of his primary debates when he was at the back of the pack, and one of his general election debates against his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan. We are also including coverage of his second debate with Ryan.

Debates are inherently performance in their nature and are rarely about subtance. They focus on how candidates can pivot from an uncomfortable topic to more familiar ground, as well as how they can attack an ideological opponent.

Perhaps the biggest weak point Vance has is his previous criticism of Trump, which moderators asked him about in one of the primary debates on March 21, 2022. During that time, he essentially stated that he was more immature when he’d said those things and added that he had recently gotten married, converted to Catholicism and had children.

“I got baptized three years ago. I've had three kids since then,” he said. “A lot's different, and one of the things that's different is that I did change my mind about Donald Trump. He was a great president, and I think at the end of the day, one of the things this race presents is an opportunity. Who actually agrees with Trump on the core issues of trade, of immigration, who's willing to fight for an America First foreign policy? I think it's clearly me.”

Another indicator of how Vance might perform came during that debate when Matt Dolan, whose family owned the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, attacked him for his opposition to supporting Ukraine.

“You have caused them additional pain,” he said, of Ukrainians suffering under Russian occupation.

In response, Vance hit Dolan for his family changing the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians.

“Interesting to hear a lecture on strength from a guy who changed the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, which, of course, was a joke,” he said. “I never said I don't care about the people of Ukraine. I said the matter of what happens to Ukraine is not in our vital national interest.”

During his primary debates, Vance regularly threw out red meat to the primary base whenever he had the opportunity. During his closing remarks in a primary debate the week after, he made sure to include the fact that Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer, had beaten other swimmers in a women’s race — an issue which he then used to pivot to talking about Big Tech.

“We just saw a biological male win a women's swimming competition,” he said. “And what bothers me about that situation is the fact that you got pharmaceutical companies getting rich off of it, ideological leaders in colleges pushing this stuff nonstop, and also big technology companies who will silence you for even speaking honestly about it.”

That response earned him an applause from the audience.

Vance regularly criticizes the media in his responses, and indeed, during his recent campaign events, he has even made the press part of his rallies by taking questions while the audience is present.

This was also the case in 2022, when he debated Ryan and was asked about a report of a 10-year-old Ohio rape victim who had to travel across state lines to get an abortion.

“I have said repeatedly on the record that I think that that girl should be able to get an abortion if she and her family soon choose to do so,” he said. “The thing they never mentioned is that poor girl was raped by an illegal alien, somebody that should have never been in this state in the first place.”

Walz’s debates are a bit different since, for the most part, he’s been an incumbent defending a record. Still, during his first run for Congress, he tended to deflect with humor rather than aggression. During a candidate forum when he was asked about same-sex marriage, which he discussed during a speech to the Human Rights Campaign recently, he did just that.

“We’ve debated these divisive issues that aren’t going to have a solution,” he said. “I’m blessed to have a great wife and since Massachusetts legalized gay marriage, I still have a great wife and we’re still married.”

At the same time, during another debate with Gil Gutknecht, he was given a chance to ask Gutknecht a question. Walz asked if Gutknecht — who had refused to say that global warming was real — had seen enough evidence of climate change being caused by fossil fuels.

Gutknecht equivocated, so, after his response, Walz hit him again. It was a hard knock disguised in friendly wording.

“First of all, I'd like to re-ask that question,” he said. “I never heard anything about global warming, but perhaps we can come back to it on the next round again.”

But in 2010, Walz was in a decidedly different position, running after he had voted for Obamacare, which remained incredibly unpopular in his area. During that time, whenever he was asked about it by his Republican opponent Randy Demmer and independent candidate Steven Wilson, he repeatedly defended his vote for the ACA by talking about the local effects and the fact that the Mayo Clinic in his home state had praised it.

“This is what happens when you get talking points from the National Republican Party versus listening to the Mayo Clinic,” he said.

Walz would go on to win that race by 13,123 votes in a midterm election that wiped out numerous other rural Democrats from swing districts.

Walz’s debate in 2022 came at a different time. As an incumbent governor, he needed to defend his stewardship of the state during the Covid-19 pandemic and in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd.

During that time, he defended his response to the demonstrations that at times turned violent and led to the destruction of property and defacing of statues. His Republican opponent critiqued him for saying he was proud of his response.

“I was proud of the first responders — you may not be, but I was,” Walz told Jensen, before invoking his military service: “I don't care what he says about me. I care what he says about the folks who are out there doing this work that put a plan together to deal with an unprecedented situation, to restore order.”

But there was one moment from Jensen that proved prophetic.

“Tim Walz has hooked his wagon to Joe Biden, and I guess with Kamala Harris coming to town on Saturday, he's hooked his wagon to her as well,” he said.

And that’s what we call foreshadowing.