Whoever wins this Pennsylvania county will likely win the whole election

The most valuable asset any candidate for office has is time. And how they spend it shows what their priorities are.

While over the weekend, former president Donald Trump held a vanity fest in Coachella down in California, he held an arguably more important event with Latino business leaders on Saturday as part of his effort to pick off Latino voters from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, Vice President Harris spent Sunday in Greenville, North Carolina as she seeks to win a state that Democrats have long been close to winning but just can’t get right.

But of course, all eyes have been on Pennsylvania for months as the linchpin — both when Joe Biden was the nominee and now that Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.

That shows why Harris spending Monday in Erie County, Pennsylvania matters more than people realize. Her decision to campaign there shows she realizes just how integral the county will be if she is to win.

Last week, The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Enquirer dropped a poll showing Harris has a four-point lead in the commonwealth. While polling in the past missed Trump voters in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, and it’s important to bear that in mind this time around, the Harris campaign still must feel good about such news. It denies her opponent one clear path to victory.

Historically, Erie County has voted for Democrats. In 2000, Al Gore won the county by nine points and in 2008, Barack Obama won it by a wopping 20 points in light of the Great Recession. He won it again by almost 17 points in 2012.

But by 2016, things had changed. Located in the northwestern part of the state and bumping up against its namesake lake, Erie is the quintessential white working-class county.

Almost 74 percent of its residents are non-Hispanic white. Its median household income is lower than the national average and poverty is higher. In 2002, the Hammermill paper plant closed in Erie and General Electric Transportation left the area gradually, too.

All of this made Erie fertile ground for the kind of revolt that Trump led in 2016 — when he won Erie by two points. But in 2020, it swung back to the Democrats. Biden won the county in 2020 by just 1,417 votes, which helped deliver him Pennsylvania.

There is evidence that Democrats might have a shot in 2024. Senator John Fetterman easily beat Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in 2022 and Governor Josh Shapiro won the county by 20 points that same year. Shapiro’s prowess in places like Erie were why some Democrats thought he might be an ideal pick for a running mate.

Harris has recently also campaigned in similar Obama-Trump areas like Luzerne County, where she held a huge rally. And her campaign included Erie as part of a $90 million ad buy back in August.

Harris’s running mate Governor Tim Walz has also been dispatched to campaign in Erie. This makes sense, given that Walz previously had strong white working-class appeal as a congressman. Nevertheless, it’s important to note that that appeal had begun to wane during his final campaign for Congress, when his southern Minnesota district voted for Trump. A Republican now holds his old congressional seat.

But Trump has not abandoned Erie. In fact, he held a rally there late last month. His running mate, Senator JD Vance — who hails from Ohio, which is right on the border with Erie County — has rallied there recently as well.

Harris’s campaign has reasons to feel confident in Pennsylvania. But the fact that she is now campaigning in one of the counties that epitomizes the type of voter who drifted from Democrats shows she is leaving nothing to chance in these final days before the election.