Who's ahead in the presidential race? Here's what national polls say vs. Pennsylvania now
Election Day is just 13 days away as the presidential candidates are making their final campaign rounds.
There has been a lot of focus on the swing state of Pennsylvania because the race is so close that voters can likely sway either way down to the Election Day wire. The state helped President Joe Biden win the 2020 election after it voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016.
Once again, the Keystone State with its 19 electoral votes, is one of those seven battleground states now likely to determine the 2024 election. The others are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
The last two months worth of polls and odds have shown a change in momentum and how close the presidential race has become, a likely result given the recent political climate that has made history and headlines across the country, such as:
President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris
Former President Donald Trump assassination attempt in Pennsylvania followed by second attempt that was thwarted before the trigger was pulled
One of the most highly watched presidential debates and a consequential vice-presidential debate
Catastrophic Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton devastated the U.S. mainland
The ensuing chaos boiling over in the Middle East conflict as Ukraine-Russia war rages on
So big questions still looming: "Who will be the 47th president of the United States?" "Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?"
Here is what the Pennsylvania polls, odds say now — compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls with 48.1% to Trump's 46.3% versus the Pennsylvania poll that has Trump leading at 47.8% over Harris at 47.5%
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.4% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Trump is leading by 0.3%
realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris's favor with a spread of +1.1 over Trump. However, Trump is favored by a +0.8 spread in Pennsylvania
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, are giving Trump 63.7% odds compared to Harris's 35.9% national odds. Pennsylvania's odds favor Trump 62% over Harris at 39%.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, at 10:45 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public's opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning presidential election? How Pennsylvania polls compare