Who's winning 2024 US presidential election today? What Pa, swing state polls show
Election Day is here as ballots are being cast and counted. But all eyes are on the swing states — especially Pennsylvania.
Most states have consistently voted blue or red, like the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, some states, called swing states or battleground states, lean differently in each election. These are Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on election night.
Here's what the final Pennsylvania and swing state polls and odds are showing compared to the national polls.
Who is leading in the swing states' polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.2%, Harris 48.0% to Trump's 46.8%; Pennsylvania has Harris leading by +0.2%; Arizona has Trump leading by +2.1%; Georgia has Trump leading by +0.8%; Michigan has Harris leading by +1.0%; Nevada has Trump leading by +0.3%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +0.9%; and Wisconsin has Harris leading by +1.0. Trump continues to lead in 4 of the 7 swing states compared to last week's polls results.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.2% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll has Trump and Harris is even tie; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.7%; Georgia has Trump leading by 1.2%; Michigan has Harris leading by 1.8%; Nevada has Trump leading by 0.6%; North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.3%, and Wisconsin has Harris leading by 1.1%. Trump is also leading these polls in 5 of the 7 swing states compared to last week's polls results.
realclearpolling shows the betting odds favor Harris by +0.1 over Trump, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.4; Arizona shows odds +2.8 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +1.3 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.5 in favor of Harris; Nevada shows +0.6 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.2 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.4 in favor of Harris. The odds are favoring Trump in 5 out of 7 swing states compared to last week's polls results.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 62.7% over Harris 37.4%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 61% over Harris's 39%. Arizona shows Trump favored 76% over Harris 25%. Georgia shows Trump favored 70% over Harris 30%. Michigan shows Harris favored 63% over Trump 39%. Nevada shows Trump favored 62% over Harris 39%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 69% over Harris 31%. Wisconsin shows Harris favored 54% over Trump 46%. The betting odds have shifted 5 out of 7 in favor of Trump compared to last week's polls results.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, at 9:30 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning? What polls show in Pennsylvania, swing states now