Why Kamala Harris' Pennsylvania chances are tied to a statewide dynasty
The News
PITTSBURGH – Four months after Bob Casey and Barack Obama shared a stage here in 2012, they both scored convincing Election Day victories. So it’s easy to see why Casey relished Obama’s return to his side on Thursday night.
After introducing him to a packed house at the University of Pittsburgh, Casey lingered behind the former president for the entirety of Obama’s remarks. Obama returned the favor to big applause: “Folks make a distinction between workhorses and show horses. And Bob Casey is not a show pony.” Their close connection was not lost on anyone in the room.
The senator will have a far less tested partner at the top of the ticket in Kamala Harris. After Obama kept Pennsylvania solidly blue for two elections, Donald Trump narrowly took it back in 2016. Despite Joe Biden’s favorite-son status in the Keystone State, his margin of victory there in 2020 was tiny.
And this year, Casey faces a wealthy Republican challenger in Dave McCormick, who has the support of the nation’s largest single-candidate Senate super PAC. Polls have shown Casey comfortably ahead even as Harris and Trump tie, but the race is tightening, and McCormick says Harris made his life easier simply by not being Biden.
“It helps me, honest to God. Biden was like, ‘Pennsylvania, Scranton Joe,’” McCormick told Semafor in an interview at a local VFW. Harris, he added, “had this sugar high, and now it’s drifting.”
This time around, the presidential candidate may need Casey more than he needs her. Without Biden’s local appeal here, Harris will benefit from Casey’s name recognition after three decades on Pennsylvania ballots — and from his popular governor father before that.
It’s been 20 years since Pennsylvania last split between presidential and Senate candidates from different parties, which leaves Harris’ and Casey’s fates notably intertwined.
“How we go will dictate where the country goes,” Rep. Chris Deluzio, a battleground-seat congressman from the swingy Pittsburgh suburbs, told Semafor. “Democrats are figuring out how to win here again.”
Casey described both his and Harris’ campaign as “close, because there’s so much on the line.” While Pennsylvania’s Senate race almost certainly won’t decide control of the chamber next year, his assessment is right on; Democrats simply cannot afford to lose a seat here if they want a majority anytime in the near future.
The cash flow into the Casey-McCormick battle also tells the tale, with Pennsylvania ranked as the country’s second-most expensive Senate race at more than $300 million. Win or lose, this year is nearly guaranteed to be Casey’s closest race ever.
Republicans see a chance for a rerun of 2016, with narrow twin wins for Donald Trump and the Senate candidate.
“It’s going to be important for McCormick to tuck up right next to Trump, just because of the intense competitiveness of the presidential ballot,” said Steven Law, who runs the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund super PAC.
Know More
The three-term Casey is the epitome of Obama’s “no drama” mantra, and he has a knack for turning tough campaigns into blowouts. He’s also deftly shifted along with his party on guns and abortion rights over the years.
McCormick sees an advantage in that as he faces down a legendary name in state politics.
“The thing about dynasties is, they all fall at some point,” McCormick said of the Casey name. “The Bob Casey that people elected 30 years ago is just a completely different guy than we have today in terms of his voting.”
Casey is making sure to distinguish himself down the stretch. He distanced himself from Pennsylvania Rep. Summer Lee’s remarks on Israel and is criticizing the administration’s pace of tightening security at the southern border this year, saying that “it should have been done earlier.”
Still, he’s a big Biden fan; the president just held a rare fundraiser for Casey in Pennsylvania.
The Democrat is also seeking to match McCormick’s frantic energy as the race comes to a close, despite being dubbed “mild thing” by his junior Pennsylvania colleague Sen. John Fetterman. Casey is bashing McCormick on multiple fronts, focusing on his foe’s record as CEO of the massive Bridgewater Associates hedge fund.
He called McCormick’s investment decisions “inexcusable,” pointing out three separate times during an interview that Bridgewater invested in China. Summing up the race, he says, while “I was investing in people and getting things done here, he was investing in China.”
“It’s especially insulting, because he seeks to represent the people of our state. And most of those kinds of investments hurt the state and even hurt our national security,” Casey said.
McCormick countered that he’s “really proud” of his work at Bridgewater and said Casey’s attack line is “anti-business, it’s anti-success.”
“It’s the behavior of an incumbent that’s in deep shit,” McCormick said.
Casey doesn’t use such vivid terminology, but nor does he talk as if he’s leading by the 8- or 9-point margins that some polls show he has. It’s partially because Pennsylvania is one of the GOP’s top targets this cycle.
The super PAC that Law runs is joining forces with the cash-rich Keystone Renewal super PAC to dump tens of millions of dollars into the race for McCormick. The Democratic incumbent acknowledges that voters are having trouble cutting through that level of spending.
“They’re having to sift through a lot of attacks to get to the core issues, and to get to the truth. I think they’ll get there, but it’s difficult because we’re getting bombarded,” he said.
Burgess’s view
I’ve been somewhat surprised by the heavy Republican focus on Pennsylvania, given that Casey won comfortably in 2006, 2012 and 2018. But in a party that is now commanded by Trump, McCormick is a more unifying candidate between the establishment and the Trump wing than an unpredictable MAGA figure like Arizona’s Kari Lake.
Given how close Trump and Harris are running here, the GOP is going all-in on a Republican candidate who some in the party thought had a better chance to defeat Fetterman two years ago than the celebrity doctor they ended up nominating. If Trump has a shot, the thinking goes, so does McCormick.
Of course, McCormick’s house in Connecticut gives Democrats some nostalgia for Oz’s New New Jersey roots. Deluzio said that “now twice, they’ve picked nominees who just aren’t from here,” arguing that McCormick’s out-of-state residence helps Casey.
Still, regardless of whether Republicans win the Senate, they can only stand to benefit by making Casey sweat. At worst, they’re making Harris’ job harder next month. At best, they’re picking up a surprising Senate seat that gives them a bigger cushion in 2026.