Will Alabama's IVF ruling hurt Republicans in 2024?
What’s happening
Late last month, several Republican politicians came out in support of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and voiced their opposition to an Alabama Supreme Court ruling that embryos used in the procedure should be considered “children” under state law.
“I strongly support the availability of IVF for couples who are trying to have a precious baby,” former President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “The Republican Party should always be on the side of the Miracle of Life.”
Trump’s defense of IVF, and that of other Republicans, came a full week after the Alabama court issued its ruling. During that period, Democrats had hammered the GOP over what President Biden called an “outrageous and unacceptable” decision that was a “direct result” of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade.
That case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, was the culmination of a half-century-long campaign by conservatives to eliminate nationwide abortion protections. But it also turned the issue of reproductive rights into a major political liability for Republicans, one that’s helped fuel Democratic wins in races across the country and inspired voters in a number of states to approve measures protecting abortion access. One Republican strategist described Alabama’s IVF ruling as “another hot potato” to deal with on an issue that is already a big headache for the party.
The background
The case that set off the political fireworks over IVF was brought by three families who argued that they had the right to sue a fertility clinic after their embryos being stored there were accidentally destroyed.
The Alabama Supreme Court ruled in their favor, arguing that nothing in the state’s “personhood” law granting rights to “unborn children” drew any distinctions between embryos inside or outside of the womb. The decision didn’t ban IVF in Alabama, but several providers in the state have since suspended the treatments, citing the legal risk they now face in the wake of the ruling.
Despite their stated support for IVF, many Republican politicians have helped create the legal landscape that led to the Alabama court’s decision. Trump appointed three justices to the U.S. Supreme Court who helped overturn Roe v. Wade. GOP members of Congress blocked a Democrat-led effort to protect IVF in the aftermath of Dobbs and blocked a renewed effort to pass the bill in the Senate that came after Alabama's ruling.
Personhood laws are also popular throughout the party at the state level and nationally. A bill that would establish personhood rights nationwide with no exceptions for IVF currently has 125 Republican co-sponsors in the House of Representatives. That list includes House Speaker Mike Johnson, who recently come out in favor of IVF.
Why there’s debate
Republicans clearly view the IVF ruling as something that could hurt them heading into November’s crucial elections, but there’s debate over just how damaging the issue will be.
Some right-leaning pundits believe the decision could be particularly harmful within the GOP’s own base because it could turn away voters who oppose abortion but see limits on fertility treatments as a step too far. Three-quarters of Republican voters describe themselves as “pro-life,” and the limited polling available suggests that even the most conservative Americans overwhelmingly support IVF.
But other political observers say denouncing the Alabama court’s deeply unpopular decision actually allows Republicans to appear reasonable on reproductive issues and can serve as a counterargument to Democrats who say the party is in thrall to its far-right fringe. That could be especially true, they say, if the GOP quickly moves to pass new laws both in Alabama and nationally to ensure IVF is safe.
What’s next
Alabama's governor signed legislation into law on Wednesday that will grant legal protections to IVF providers and patients in the state, prompting at least one clinic to say it will resume providing the services on Thursday. Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois has said she plans to bring up her bill to establish nationwide protections for IVF again, though the prospects of it passing through Congress law appear slim.
Perspectives
Republicans’ actions, not their words, are what matter to voters
“Republicans will try to distance themselves from Alabama. … [But] in their successful fight to overturn Roe, Republicans unleashed big government on women’s bodies and on American families. Republicans own Alabama and whatever comes in its wake.” — Nia-Malika Henderson, Bloomberg
The GOP can legitimately argue that it has no interest in banning IVF
“The pro-life movement has … always been divided over IVF, and even many of those most skeptical of IVF do not think this is the proper moment to open a new legal or political front against it. A recent court case in Alabama doesn’t change that.” — Editorial, National Review
The problem will blow over if lawmakers do their jobs
“The system may work exactly as it’s supposed to. Political pressure on the Legislature will result in legislation that is a compromise across all sorts of different paths.” — Sarah Isgur, Dispatch
Trump is smart enough to steer clear of the extreme fringes of his party
“Trump’s avoidance of debates and questions from anyone but sympathetic interviewers means that he may be able to skip past the Alabama ruling for some time. The former president has made clear by his actions that he understands that abortion could be a disadvantage for him in a general election given that he constructed the Supreme Court majority that overturned Roe v. Wade.” — Stephen Collinson, CNN
Alabama has put the rest of the country on notice about the dangers of anti-abortion policies
“This is not a case where a court has imposed its own ideological or philosophical preferences on an unsuspecting state, as sometimes happens in this country. To the contrary, the court is essentially requiring Alabamans to reckon with their electorate’s choices. In that sense, it also doubles as a bright neon-red warning sign about the implications of adopting similar fetal personhood amendments in other states.” — Matt Ford, New Republic
The court has given hesitant Dems more reason to stick with Biden
“I’m talking about many Democrats with single-issue objections to President Biden. … If these Democrats decide to punish Biden by sitting it out, they could wind up performing one of the greatest acts of self-immolation in recent political history.” — Charles M. Blow, New York Times
Moderate anti-abortion voters could turn away from the GOP
“Statistically, many GOP voters who have suffered from the inability to conceive naturally have undergone such treatments, so seeing that choice taken from them could do severe damage to independent and centrist Republican voters.” — Rachel Schilke, Washington Examiner
Decisions like this drown out reasonable arguments for protecting unborn life
“Alabama believes its abortion battle has been won, at least at a state level, but I believe the way in which we’ve gotten to this point has made any good faith arguments against abortion lost in the void, all credibility now shrouded by political posturing and control.” — Jacob Holmes, Alabama Political Reporter