Who’s winning the election in Pennsylvania, swing states? Here's what the polls say now
Election Day is just 4 days away and the seven swing states continue to shift in the polls as presidential candidates enter the final stretch of their campaigns to convince the undecided and rally more voters.
Most states consistently vote blue or red, like the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016. But some states, called swing states or battleground states, lean differently in each election.
Both political campaigns are exhausting their resources in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — where the race is so close that it can really go either way.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on election night.
So, who will be the 47th president of the United States? Will Trump make a return to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Harris be our first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
Here are the most recent updates on each swing states' polls and odds compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the swing states' polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.2%, Harris 47.9% to Trump's 46.8%; Pennsylvania has Trump leading by +0.7%; Arizona has Trump leading by +2.4%; Georgia has Trump leading by +1.8%; Michigan has Harris leading by +0.8%; Nevada has Trump leading by +0.3%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +1.4%; and Wisconsin has Harris leading by +0.2. Trump is now leading in 5 of the 7 swing states compared to last week's polls results.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.2% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Trump leads over Harris by only 0.6%; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.8%; Georgia has Trump leading by 1.9%; Michigan has Harris leading by 1.6%; Nevada has Trump leading by 0.2%; North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.1%, and Wisconsin has Harris leading by 0.7%. Trump is also leading these polls in 5 of the 7 swing states compared to last week's polls results.
realclearpolling shows the betting odds favor Trump by +0.3 over Harris, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.3; Arizona shows odds +2.3 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.6 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.8 in favor of Harris; Nevada shows +0.9 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.4 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.3 in favor of Harris. The odds have shifted in 5 out of 7 swing states to Trump compared to last week's polls results.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 62.7% over Harris 37.4%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 56% over Harris's 44%. Arizona shows Trump favored 76% over Harris 25%. Georgia shows Trump favored 74% over Harris 28%. Michigan shows Harris favored 56% over Trump 45%. Nevada shows Trump favored 63% over Harris 37%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 73% over Harris 28%. Wisconsin shows Harris favored 52% over Trump 49%. The betting odds have shifted 5 out of 7 in favor of Trump compared to last week's polls results.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, at 9 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning? What polls show in Pennsylvania, swing states now